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  • TARP Cost Estimates Continue to Drop

    In its latest report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Congressional Budget Office dropped the estimated cost of the program substantially. The CBO's estimate is now $25 billion. That's a far cry from the estimate of $66 billion in August, or $109 billion from the CBO's March report. There is some explanation for the cost trending downward at the CBO's Director's Blog : It was not apparent when the TARP was created two years ago that the costs would be this low. At that time, the financial system was in a precarious condition, and the transactions envisioned and ultimately undertaken through the TARP engendered substantial financial risk for the federal government. However, the cost has come out toward the low end of the range of possible outcomes anticipated when the program was launched. Because the financial system stabilized and then improved, the amount of funds used by the TARP was well below the $700 billion initially authorized, and the outcomes of most transactions made through the TARP were favorable for the federal government. Some more specific reasons: -Additional repurchases of preferred stock by recipients of TARP funds; -A lower estimated cost for assistance to AIG and to the automotive industry; -Lower expected participation in mortgage programs; -The elimination of the opportunity to use TARP funds for new purposes (because of the passage of time and the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act). Read the full report here .

  • Bernanke: 'Recession is very likely over'

    Add Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's voice to the growing chorus that the recession appears to be over and a long slow recovery is beginning. Bernanke spoke at the Brookings Insititution yesterday about the events of the last year, and during his speech he noted that he was well aware that forecasters were announcing the end of the recession. Here is a key excerpt from the speech. But the general view of most forecasters is that that pace of growth in 2010 will be moderate, less than you might expect given the depth of the recession, because of ongoing headwinds, including still ongoing financial and credit problems, you know, deleveraging by households, the needs for adjustments in the economy, sectoral adjustments in the economy, the need for a fiscal exit at some point, many, many factors that will likely, at least based on current information, make the 2010 recovery moderate, and in particular, not much faster than sort of the underlying potential growth rate of the economy. And the arithmetic is that unless the economy grows, you know, significantly faster than its longer term growth rate, it’ll be relatively slow in creating jobs over and above those needed to employ people coming into the labor force, and therefore, the unemployment rate would tend to come down quite slowly. So that’s a risk, that’s a possibility. Of course, there is on both sides of that forecast; we could have a stronger recovery, we could have a weaker recovery, but if we do, in fact, see moderate growth, but not growth much more than the underlying potential growth rate, then, unfortunately, unemployment will be slow to come down. It will come down, but it may take some time. Obviously, that’s a very serious concern, and that’s one reason why, even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was, and so that’s a challenge for us and all policy-makers going forward. You can read a full transcript of the speech, and watch the full session by clicking here .