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  • A Case for Small Businesses Lowering Prices

    Small Business Trends has reprinted an article by Susan Reid --business coach and author of Discovering Your Inner Samurai: The Entrepreneurial Woman's Journey to Business Success- -in which she writes that now is the time to drop prices. This period of early but slow recovery is the right spot because "things are about to take off" for small businesses. She points to the film Mr. Mom, set in the recession of the early 1980s (Terri Garr and Michael Keaton fans: you'll have to read the full article--link below--to catch the relevance). And she outlines the right approach with these key pieces of advice: Create an esprit de corps. Don’t set yourself apart from your target market. Find a way to connect with them emotionally and show them you are all in the same boat. Example: We’ve all been through a lot during this recession and have gone through some tough times. Make sure you use strong wording when lowering your prices. Don’t be namby-pamby. Let folks know exactly what you are doing in bold, strong language. Example: We’re slashing the price of our services in half! Be entirely transparent and upfront about why you are lowing your prices. Don’t let there be a whiff of anything slightly off about your offer. Let people know exactly why you are lowering prices. Example: We know that many of you have wanted to use our services but found our prices were out of your budget. Be entirely clear in your call to action. Don’t apologize for asking them to take action. Tell them exactly what you want them to do and why. Example: Check us out again! We’ve dramatically lowered the price on most of our products. Tell folks when you will be going back to your regular prices. Don’t waffle around about when you will return to regular pricing. Tell them what you’ll be doing and when. Example: In six months, when the economic crisis is over, we’ll go back to our regular prices. Read Begin Your Economic Recovery. Lower Your Prices Now! here .
  • Transports Indicate Stalled Economy

    The Pragmatic Capitalist has a must-read post about transports. The data for shipping via rail, trucks, and air transports show very weak shipping activity. Nothing has been more confounding during this equity rally than the weakness in the underlying fundamentals of the transports. Without fail, the data from the transports has been an excellent leading indicator in past recessions. Warren Buffett has even admitted that the rail data is his single favorite indicator to watch. But as equity market have ripped higher, the rails and other transports have lagged . Of course, as time has passed we have witnessed the enormous influence of government stimulus on the economy and the incredible impact of money printing on asset prices. As we begin to see signs that government stimulus is failing to generate jobs and a sustainable recovery, the transports continue to forecast a very weak recovery. Have the transports been right this whole time or is the Fed’s liquidity induced rally a more accurate reflection of the economy? Read Transports Confirm the Economy is Weak here . (H/T Melissa Acuña, Cengage)
  • Fed Chooses to Keep Interest Rates Low

    The Federal Open Market Committee met today and decided to keep the federal fund rates at 0 to 0.25 percent. So while the FOMC stated that it sees positive signs in the economic data, it is not ready to forgo monetary policy measures designed to push recovery, and it is not concerned about inflation at this point. From the press release: In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt. The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted. Read the full release here .
  • NABE Outlook Survey: Slow Recovery Begins in Second Half of 2009

    Business economists anticpate the end of the recession will come by the second half of the year, according to the latest National Association of Business Economists (NABE) outlook survey. While the outlook for the rest of the quarter is bleak--economists in the survey predict another 1.8 percent drop in GDP--we might see small growth through the rest of the year. The survey predicts 1.2 percent growth in the second half. Sean Snaith , director for the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida, discusses the NABE survey and economic recovery with NABE VP Lynn Reaser , and Shaun DuBravec , an economist with the Consumer Electronics Association . Click here to watch the video:
  • Ten Questions to Help CFOs Prepare for Recovery

    Top Chief Financial Officers have earned their keep through this recession as the credit crunch has put a lot of companies in tight spots. IF the recession does end in the coming months, CFOs will have to shift gears and help steer companies through a whole new set of challenges. McKinsey Quarterly offers up ten questions to consider for this next phase. For example, question 2: Have you restructured enough? A weak economy makes it easier to implement unpopular operational changes and divestitures: companies have more leverage over suppliers, unions and regulators are more cooperative, and employees understand the need for change. When the economy strengthens, these advantages will quickly vanish. CFOs should challenge their colleagues to examine how much more restructuring might be undertaken to secure a company’s cost position for the medium term. And question 9: Do you know what risks a recovery might bring? Risk management and contingency planning are typically better at highlighting day-to-day issues than at anticipating major shifts. Yet an economic turnaround could bring a number of structural changes, some relatively predictable and with far-reaching effects. How well, for example, do you understand your company’s exposure to major currency or commodity price movements? Do you know whether the health of channels, customers, or suppliers might create substantial structural change or whether your company is prepared to deal with high levels of volatility that may continue even as a recovery builds? Read the full list and get into the conversation here .
  • One-Two Punch on Home Prices: Foreclosures and Unemployment

    The foreclosure rate hit a record high in April, according to RealtyTrac . 342,038 received at least one foreclosure filing last month. That's one in every 374 homes--and a jump of 32% from April of 2008, according to Reuters . While some economists believe the foreclosure rate is set to go down soon , its impact on median home prices has been severe in many metro areas across the country. And the Wall Street Journal points out that the combination of lower home prices and higher unemployment over the first quarter of 2009 presents a dangerous one-two punch for some areas. Here's a chart of the 128 metro areas that had a drop in median home prices over the last year, and their corresponding unemployment rates. The metro areas toward the top right seem to face the biggest challenges. (click on the map to see the metro areas): Michael Shenk of the Cleveland Fed finds some silver linings in the latest housing statistics, and thinks the housing bust may be over . Alan Greenspan also thinks the housing market has hit bottom , but as Barry Ritholtz points out at The Big Picture , Greenspan said the same thing in 2006 .
  • WSJ's Wessel Lays Out Possible Scenarios for Global Economy

    Wall Street Journal economics editor David Wessel says there "isn't any doubt where the global economy is now," after yesterday's report from the IMF that we're in the midst of the worst global recession since the Great Depression. And just as the US dragged the world down into this recession, so too with the US be the driving force for recovery. In this short video, Wessel lays out three possible scenarios for where the economy is going (spoiler alert: "quick recovery" is not one of the scenarios):
  • Obama Reveals Goals of Economic Recovery Plan

    In his first weekly address as President , Barack Obama outlined the goals of his Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Plan , saying "if we do not act boldy and swiftly, a bad situation could become dramatically worse." He addressed four specific areas of the plan: creating a clean energy economy; updating health care systems and protect health insurance for "eight million Americans who are in danger of losing their coverage,"; renovate and modernize public schools; and "rebuild and retrofit" the nation's transit infrastructure (from roads to ports). The White House has made the metrics and goals of the plan available here .