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  • The Economist Graphic Detail: Home Prices

    The Economist has a nice new interactive graph to help us see how housing prices have changed across the U.S. Naturally, we plugged in Las Vegas and Phoenix to see how puny (or, rather, less threatening) the recent rise in prices looks compared to the massive spike of the pre-crash bubble. As noted in a related article at The Economist, the recent rise in prices makes us naturally ask whether we are off to our old habit of inflating prices. JUST seven years after the biggest housing bubble in American history began to deflate, could another be inflating? Prices in a 20-city index compiled by CoreLogic Case-Shiller rose by 11% in the year to the end of March, and by more than 20% in Phoenix and Las Vegas, both cities at the centre of the housing collapse. Inventory is down: homes are selling in days, and often for more than the asking price. In Phoenix, bidding wars have broken out between would-be homeowners and investors paying cash. Americans once more see property as a winning asset. But to qualify as a bubble, an asset must not simply appreciate; it must decouple from its intrinsic value. For houses, The Economist each quarter compares the ratio of prices to household income and rents against their long-run average in 20 countries. We have now done the same for the 20 metropolitan areas in the Case-Shiller index. The verdict: in most markets houses are at or near their long-run values, but none looks bubbly. Read Bubble-hunting here . Click here to use the interactive graph .
  • Case-Shiller: Double Digit Annual Increases in Home Prices, Highest Growth Since 2006

    Home prices showed very strong growth in March, according to the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Indices release. On an annual basis, prices rose 10.3% for the 10-city composite index and 10.9% for the 20-city composite. That is the largest year-over-year growth since April, 2006. Average home prices rose 1.4% for the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20 city composite. Prices rose in all 20 top metro areas. Here's a look at the long term trend: From the release: “Home prices continued to climb,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Home prices in all 20 cities posted annual gains for the third month in a row. Twelve of the 20 saw prices rise at double-digit annual growth. The National Index and the 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest annual returns since 2006. “Phoenix again had the largest annual increase at 22.5% followed by San Francisco with 22.2% nd Las Vegas with 20.6%. Miami and Tampa, the eastern end of the Sunbelt, were softer with annual gains of 10.7% and 11.8%. The weakest annual price gains were seen in New York (+2.6%), Cleveland (+4.8%) and Boston (+6.7%); even these numbers are quite substantial. “Other housing market data reported in recent weeks confirm these strong trends: housing starts and permits, sales of new home and existing homes continue to trend higher. At the same time, the larger than usual share of multi-family housing, a large number of homes still in some stage of foreclosure and buying-to-rent by investors suggest that the housing recovery is not complete.” Read the full release here .
  • CPI Drops Again in April

    After a bit of a jump earlier this year, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers dropped for the second month in a row in April. A drop in the gasoline index was key as CPI decreased 0.4%. The index is up 1.1% over April 2012. Fom the Bureau of Labor Statistics release: As was the case in March, a sharp decrease in the gasoline index was the primary cause of the decline in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The fuel oil index also declined while the electricity and natural gas indexes increased; the net result was a 4.3 percent decrease in the energy index. The food index, unchanged in March, rose 0.2 percent in April. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in April, the same increase as in March. The indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and tobacco all increased in April. These increases were partially offset by declines in the indexes for apparel, airline fares, and recreation. The all items index increased 1.1 percent over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase since November 2010. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.7 percent over the span; this was its smallest 12-month increase since June 2011. The food index rose 1.5 percent while the energy index declined 4.3 percent. Here's a look at the CPI for All Urban Consumers over the last year: Read the full release here .
  • Case-Shiller: Housing Prices Keep Rising

    Home prices continued to climb in February, according to the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Indices release. Average home prices rose 0.4% for the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20 city composite. On an annual basis, prices rose 8.6% for the 10-city composite index and 9.3% for the 20-city composite. Prices rose in 16 of the 20 top metro areas. Here's a look at the long term trend: From the release: “Home prices continue to show solid increases across all 20 cities,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 10- and 20-City Composites recorded their highest annual growth rates since May 2006; seasonally adjusted monthly data show all 20 cities saw higher prices for two months in a row – the last time that happened was in early 2005. “Phoenix, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Atlanta were the four cities with the highest year-over-year price increases. Atlanta recovered from a wave of foreclosures in 2012 while the other three were among the hardest hit in the housing collapse. At the other end of the rankings, three older cities – New York, Boston and Chicago – saw the smallest year-over-year price improvements. “Despite some recent mixed economic reports for March, housing continues to be one of the brighter spots in the economy. The 2013 first quarter GDP report shows that residential investment accelerated from the 2012 fourth quarter and made a positive contribution to growth. One open question is the mix of single family and apartments; housing starts data show a larger than usual share is apartments.” Read the full release here .
  • Economic Success Story: The Price of Flying has Dropped 50% in 30 Years

    The Atlantic 's Derek Thompson has found an economic story that [almost] everyone can celebrate: the price of flying. Airline tickets cost half what they did just thirty years ago: This is a case, Thompson argues, of deregulation working. And when the Internet became accessible to the common consumer, buyers gained a lot of leverage on prices. And yet, we still think of flying as expensive. Thompson: When US Airways and American Airlines announced their mega-merger this year, it set off national hysterics, as flyers claimed the new behemoth would painfully raise prices. The reaction seemed unaware that consumers have enjoyed an amazing (and unsustainable) three decades in cheap flying while the price of fuel, which accounts for more than a third of airfare costs, has gone up 260 percent since the turn of the century. Between falling prices, 9/11, and fuel inflation, there have been 47 airline bankruptcies since 2001. Some companies died. Others merged. Others survived with leaner contracts. Through attrition and consolidation, a less crowded marketplace for flying is inevitable. Why don't we appreciate this heyday in bargain flying? The first, and obvious, answer is that flying through the air in a big machine powered by a scarce resource will always cost a big number, and your average family expends very little energy adjusting big numbers for inflation. If you buy a round-trip ticket from New York to Columbus for $280 every year between 1986 and 2010, would you suddenly realize, after 24 years, that the real price of your ticket had dropped by exactly 50 percent? Probably not. You'd probably think, correctly, "I guess flying to Ohio costs $280." The second, and less obvious, reason why we don't recognize the amazing fall in ticket prices is that average consumers don't know what a plane ticket "should" cost. Some prices, we know, as if by heart. Parents know the price of socks, teenagers know the price of Cheetos, and college kids know the price of PBR. These numbers hardly change. Their constancy anchors an expectation. But quick, what's *the price* of flying to Los Angeles? You have no idea. It could be $300 or $700, depending on the route, the time of day, the number of seats left, the number of days notice, and so on. Read How Airline Ticket Prices Fell 50% in 30 Years (and Why Nobody Noticed) here .
  • Case-Shiller: 'Home Prices Closed Out a Strong 2012'

    After dropping slightly in November, home prices gained again in December and had a strong finish to 2012, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices release. Average home prices rose 0.2% for the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20 city composite. On an annual basis, prices rose 5.9% for the 10-city composite index and 6.8% for the 20-city composite. Only New York saw home prices fall on an annual basis. Here's a look at the long term trend: From the release: “Home prices ended 2012 with solid gains,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Housing and residential construction led the economy in the 2012 fourth quarter. In December’s report all three headline composites and 19 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 9 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains. Seasonally adjusted, there were no monthly declines across all 20 cities. “The National Composite increased 7.3% over the four quarters of 2012. From its low in the first quarter, it surged in the second and third quarter and slipped slightly in the 2012 fourth period. The 10- and 20-City Composites, which bottomed out in March 2012 continued to show both year-over-year and monthly gains in December. These movements, combined with other housing data, suggest that while housing is on the upswing some of the strongest numbers may have already been seen. “Atlanta and Detroit posted their biggest year-over-year increases of 9.9% and 13.6% since the start of their indices in January 1991. Dallas, Denver, and Minneapolis recorded their largest annual increases since 2001. Phoenix continued its climb, posting an impressive year-over-year return of 23.0%; it posted eight consecutive months of double-digit annual growth.” Read the full release here .
  • The Crack Spread and Gas Prices

    We tend to look away from a lot of reports on rising gas prices. Much like weather, gas prices are low hanging fruit for news media to attract eyeballs without providing any real analysis. But there are exceptions. In the below interview, for example, the Wall Street Journal 's Paul Vigna explains exactly why prices are up again, and it provides a nice case study on how the various parts of a supply chain affect consumer costs. In the case of the most recent rise, it has to do with the gap between what refiners get for the price of crude oil and the price of wholesale--or "the crack spread":
  • CPI Stays Unchanged in January as Lower Energy Costs Offset Slight Rise in Other Indexes

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was flat in January. Lower gasoline, natural gas, and fuel oil costs offset a rises for shelter and apparel costs. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics release: The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in January. This increase offset another decline in the gasoline index and resulted in the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged, as it was last month. Increases in the indexes for shelter and apparel accounted for much of the increase in the index for all items less food and energy, with advances in the indexes for recreation, medical care, and airline fares also contributing. The energy index fell 1.7 percent in January. Along with the gasoline index, the natural gas and fuel oil indexes also declined, while the electricity index increased. The index for food was unchanged in January after increasing in each of the previous ten months. The food at home index was unchanged with major grocery store food group indexes mixed. The all items index increased 1.6 percent over the last 12 months; the 12-month change has been slowing since its recent peak of 2.2 percent in October. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as the last two months. The food index has risen 1.6 percent over the last 12 months while the energy index has declined 1.0 percent. Here's a look at the CPI for All Urban Consumers over the last 12 months: Read the release here .
  • Case-Shiller: Month-to-month Price Drop, but 'Housing is Clearly Recovering'

    Home prices dropped slightly from October to November according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices release. Average home prices dropped 0.2% for the Case-Shiller 10-city composite and 0.1% for the 20 city composite. The 12-month picture looks much stronger. On an annual basis, prices rose 4.5% for the 10-city composite index and 5.5% for the 20-city composite. Here's a look at the long term trend: From the release, quoting David M. Blitzer , Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of 20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while Cleveland was flat. Regional patterns are shifting as well. The Southwest – Las Vegas and Phoenix – are staging a strong comeback with the Southeast -- Miami and Tampa close behind. The sunbelt, which bore the brunt of the housing collapse, is back in a leadership position. California is also doing well while the northeast and industrial Midwest is lagging somewhat. Housing is clearly recovering. Prices are rising as are both new and existing home sales. Existing home sales in November were 5.0 million, highest since November 2009. New Home sales at 398,000 were the highest since June 2010. These figures confirm that housing is contributing to economic growth. " Read the full release here .
  • Case-Shiller: 'Sustained Recovery in Home Prices'

    Home prices did better than forecasters expected, but still dipped slightly in October. Average home prices dropped 0.1% in from September to October, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices release. Home prices dropped in 12 of the 20 metro areas that make up the 20-city composite index. The twelve month picture, on the other hand, looks very strong. On an annual basis, prices rose 3.4% for the 10-city composite index and 4.3% for the 20-city composite. Here's a look at the long term trend: From the release, quoting David M. Blitzer , Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The October monthly numbers were weaker than September as 12 cities saw prices drop compared to seven the month before.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The five which turned down in October but not in September, were Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Minneapolis and Seattle. Among all 20 cities, Chicago was the weakest with prices dropping 1.5%, followed by Boston where prices fell 1.4%. Las Vegas saw the strongest one-month gain with prices up 2.8%." “Annual rates of change in home prices are a better indicator of the performance of the housing market than the month-over-month changes because home prices tend to be lower in fall and winter than in spring and summer. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites and 19 of 20 cities recorded higher annual returns in October 2012 than in September. The impact of the seasons can also be seen in the seasonally adjusted data where only three cities declined month-to-month. The 10-City Composite annual rate of +3.4% in October was lower than the 20-City Composite annual figure of +4.3% because the two weaker cities – Chicago and New York – have higher weights in the 10-City Composite." “Looking over this report, and considering other data on housing starts and sales, it is clear that the housing recovery is gathering strength. Higher year-over-year price gains plus strong performances in the southwest and California, regions that suffered during the housing bust, confirm that housing is now contributing to the economy. Last week’s final revision to third quarter GDP growth showed that housing represented 10% of the growth while accounting for less than 3% of GDP." Read the full release here .
  • Spending, Income Both Rise in November

    Personal income and spending both rose in November, according to the Commerce Department . Income rose by 0.6 percent, exceeding expectations. Real Disposable Income rose 0.8 percent after dropping 0.1 percent in October. Real Consumer Spending rose by 0.6 percent. Take a look at the monthly change: Here are the toplines from the Bureau of Economic Analysis : Personal income increased 0.6 percent in November after increasing 0.1 percent in October. Wages and salaries increased 0.6 percent in November after decreasing 0.3 percent in October. The October decrease reflected work interruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy, which reduced wages and salaries by 0.3 percent. Real consumer spending, spending adjusted for price changes, increased 0.6 percent in November after falling 0.2 percent in October. Spending on durable goods increased 2.9 percent in November after falling 0.9 percent in October. Read the BEA's full report here .
  • CPI Drops in November

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers declined 0.3 percent (seasonally adjusted) in November, with the dropping gasoline prices pulling the overall index down. The all items index has risen 1.8 percent over the last 12 months (not seasonally adjusted), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics . Here's a look at the CPI for All Urban Consumers over the last year: Here are some key details from the BLS release: The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in November after increasing 0.2 percent in October. The shelter index, which rose 0.3 percent in October, increased 0.2 percent in November, with both rent and owners’ equivalent rent rising 0.2 percent. The index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.4 percent, its largest increase since September 2008. The index for airline fares rose 1.4 percent in November, its third consecutive increase. The new vehicles index increased 0.2 percent after declining in September and October. The indexes for medical care and recreation both rose 0.1 percent in November. In contrast to these increases, the index for apparel turned down in November, falling 0.6 percent after rising the two previous months. The index for used cars and trucks also fell in November; its 0.5 percent decline was its fifth consecutive decrease. The indexes for tobacco and personal care were both unchanged in November. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.9 percent over the last 12 months; this figure matches the average annualized increase over the past ten years. All major components have increased over the past 12 months except for used cars and trucks, which has declined 2.3 percent. Read the full release here .
  • CPI Ticks Up in October

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1 percent (seasonally adjusted) in October, with the housing costs the key driver behind the increase. The all items index has risen 2.2 percent over the last 12 months (not seasonally adjusted), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics . Here's a look at the CPI for All Urban Consumers over the last year: Here are some key details from the BLS release: The shelter index increased 0.3 percent, its largest increase since March 2008, and accounted for over half of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent, as the rise in the shelter index and increases in the indexes for apparel and airline fare more than offset declines in the indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and recreation. The food index increased 0.2 percent in October with the index for food at home rising 0.3 percent, its largest increase since September 2011. The energy index, which had risen sharply in August and September, declined slightly in October. Major energy component indexes were mixed, with declines in the indexes for gasoline and natural gas more than offsetting increases in the indexes for electricity and fuel oil. Read the full release here .
  • Case-Shiller: Housing Prices Continued to Rise in August

    Home prices continue to rise across the nation. Average home prices rose 0.9% in August, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices release. Home prices rose in 19 of the 20 metro areas that make up the 20-city composite index--with prices declining 0.1% in Seattle. On an annual basis, prices rose 1.3% for the 10-city composite index and 2.0% for the 20-city composite. Here's a look at the long term trend: From the release, quoting David M. Blitzer , Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Phoenix continues to lead the home price recovery. It recorded its fourth consecutive month of double-digit positive annual returns with a +18.8% rate for August. Atlanta posted a -6.1% annual rate, however this is significantly better than the nine consecutive months of double-digit declines it posted from October 2011 through June 2012. Las Vegas’ annual rate finally moved to positive territory with a +0.9% annual rate of change in August 2012, its first since January 2007. “The sustained good news in home prices over the past five months makes us optimistic for continued recovery in the housing market. “News on home prices confirms other good news about housing. Single family housing starts are 43% ahead of last year’s pace, existing and new home sales are also up, the inventory of homes for sale continues to drop and consumer mortgage default rates are reaching new lows. Further consumer confidence continues to rise. Even as we end the seasonally strong home buying period, the statistics are positive. For the fifth time in a row, both Composites had monthly gains. Home prices in Seattle fell modestly in August, but other than that the 20 cities have also seen home prices generally improve since April.” Read the full release here .
  • Infographic: Cost of Living Around the Globe

    We're based in Vancouver for a couple of days, and we've been struck by how expensive certain items are compared to other cities (Great food trucks, and we'll keep going back. But we'll also keep being surprised at double digit prices on street food). So we were poised to jump into some data when The Big Picture pointed us to Mercer's 2012 Cost of Living Survey . It is always fascinating to see how some cities can offer relatively affordable options in one category of consumer goods, and then have others be so expensive. The full report is worth your time. But we love this highly informative infographic (for full size, click here ):
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