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  • Davidson: Declining Mobility and What it Says About Workers Skills and Industry in America

    Adam Davidson 's latest NYT Magazine column is a must read, and it highlights one of the topics we love to keep an eye on at The Watch: mobility. Historically, a high level of economic mobility in the U.S. has often meant a lot of geographic mobility. But today? Not so much interstate migration, as this NYT graphic shows: Davidson points out that mobility requires industries that are successful and creating jobs to pull people from one state to another. And the industries that have that pull today are looking for workers with particular skills. Part of the problem is that the country’s largest industries are in decline. In the past, it was perfectly clear where young people should go for work (Chicago in the 1870s, Detroit in the 1910s, Houston in the 1970s) and, more or less, what they’d be doing when they got there (killing steer, building cars, selling oil). And these industries were large enough to offer jobs to each class of worker, from unskilled laborer to manager or engineer. Today, the few bright spots in our economy are relatively small (though some promise future growth) and decentralized. There are great jobs in Silicon Valley, in the biotech research capitals of Boston and Raleigh-Durham and in advanced manufacturing plants along the southern I-85 corridor. These companies recruit all over the country and the globe for workers with specific abilities. (You don’t need to be the next Mark Zuckerberg to get a job in one of the microhubs, by the way. But you will almost certainly need at least a B.A. in computer science or a year or two at a technical school.) This newer, select job market is national, and it offers members of the mobile class competitive salaries and higher bargaining power. Many members of the immobile class, on the other hand, live in the America of the grim headlines. If you have no specialized skills, there’s little reason to uproot to another state and be the last in line for a low-paying job at a new auto plant or a burgeoning green-energy cluster. The surprise in the census data, however, is that the immobile work force is not limited to unskilled workers. In fact, many have a college degree. This column has sparked an ongoing online conversation at the Planet Money blog. Read Davidson's column here . And then go to responses from Brookings demographer William Frey , here , and Northwestern economist Joseph Ferrie, here .
  • Adam Davidson: Shopping-Based Indicators and the State of Saving Among American Consumers

    In his most recent New York Times Magazine column, Adam Davidson writes about how he and his Planet Money colleagues surveyed the shopping indicator scene to see what Americans' shopping patterns might tell us about the state of the economy. From lipstick (once a strong indicator, now not so much) to Champagne sales ("consistently accurate"), there is no shortage of goods that are extolled as strong indicators. But in the end, the big takeaway is that consumers seem to remain consumers, and have yet to transition into savers. Davidson: Of all the indicators we looked at, one of the most consistently accurate was Champagne sales. The amount of French Champagne that Americans consume has predicted — with nearly 90 percent accuracy — the average American income one year later. Apparently, when we pop a Champagne cork, we know that good times are ahead (see chart). Champagne sales hurtled upward twice in recent history — at the peak of the Internet bubble in 1999 and during the heyday of the housing bubble in 2007. These were both followed by slowdowns as fewer people found reason to celebrate. There are so many indicators to choose from that you could glean just about anything regarding our economic future. In fact, the most telling indicator appears to be the sheer number of indicators themselves. Americans now have so many seductive things they can buy that there are ample consumer options no matter what we feel. Partly as a result, savings — known in economics as deferred consumption — have fallen steadily for more than 30 years, from a high of nearly 12 percent of income. It kissed zero before a tiny uptick in the past couple years. The decline of the savings rate is particularly troubling because it is consistent through busts and booms. During the fast growth of the late 1990s and mid-2000s, and the dark times that followed, people have been choosing to spend more and save less than ever before. Paradoxically, this happened just as pensions have been disappearing and life spans have been increasing. It suggests that Americans are so caught up in every short-term enthusiasm or agony that they haven't thought enough about long-term fiscal health. Read What Nail Polish Sales Tell Us About the Economy here .
  • Planet Money Podcast: Million Dollar Taxi Medallions

    Forget precious metals. Precious medals is where it's at. Or medallions. Taxi cab medallions, to be specific. In New York, a couple of taxi medallions recently sold for $1 million. Each. This presented an interesting question for the Planet Money team: what makes these medallions so valuable? Scarcity? The promise of long returns? And are they a good investment? In the most recent Planet Money podcast, David Kestenbaum and Robert Smith discuss the taxicab industry, and "why economists hate it." Take a listen:
  • Planet Money Interactive Chart on Unemployment

    Planet Money has taken the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data on unemployment and put together a highly useful, but very simple, interactive chart to show unemployment trends across age groups. Here is a glimpse at the unemployment rate for people aged 20-24 who do not have a high school diploma: Click here to use the chart.
  • Looking Back at When Federal Debt Seemed to be on its Way Out

    What a difference a decade makes. In a January 2001 report, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the US government would eliminate its debt within five years, and "be $2.3 trillion in the black," according to a new paper from the Pew Charitable Trusts . Of course, that did not happen, and the Pew paper sets out to explain why. Here is a helpful chart from the report: Read The Great Debt Shift Drivers of Federal Debt Since 2001 here . We learned about the Pew report from Planet Money . As it turns out, the CBO wasn't the only place a decade ago where economists were projecting the US government paying off its debt. Economists in the Clinton White House identified this potential problem as well. That's right, problem . These economists were concerned at how ending federal debt might set off a series of negative ripple effects through the economy. So Jason Seligman , who was working at the Council of Economic Advisers , authored a report on the potential effects of "too little" debt. The report was never published. But Planet Money's David Kestenbaum got his hands on the report. He and Alex Blumberg talked about the report with Seligman on the latest Planet Money podcast: Planet Money provides access to the report here .
  • Planet Money: The German Approach to Job Growth

    Unemployment in Germany is now at about 6 percent. That seems awfully low in today's global economic climate, but it seems high to Germans. And still, it took some painful maneuvering to get it that low. Planet Money took a trip over to Germany to learn more about the nation's ten year push to transform its labor market. That push helped the once stagnant manufacturing get going again, and in the process to produce more jobs. Take a listen (skip ahead to 02:30 for the story on Germany's unemployment):
  • Planet Money: 'Europe's Worst Cast Scenario'

    The Wall Street Journal reports that European stocks "plunged" today, "as investors worried the world's largest economy may be heading for a recession." This news reminds us that the US is not alone in its struggle to restart significant economic growth. And the problems in Europe continue to have their own dire consequences. On the latest Planet Money podcast, Columbia finance professor David Beim laid out some possible worst-case scenarios for the Eurozone and Europe: So the end of the Euro, riots, bank runs? How likely are these scenarios? What do you see as the worst-case scenario? What do you see as the most likely scenario for Europe?
  • Planet Money: 'What is Bitcoin?'

    The Planet Money team has done some excellent work this year in explaining some of the basics of money--especially in their What is Money? special for This American Life . Today David Kestenbaum and Jacob Goldstein take a look at a relatively new currency: Bitcoin . Bitcoin is a sort of online cash. Daniel Lyons gave a brief description in a June article for Newsweek : What if people could use the Internet to create a new kind of money, one that didn’t involve governments and central banks and could be used anonymously, like cash? That is the idea behind Bitcoin, a virtual currency that has caught the attention of computer geeks, financial speculators, and drug dealers. For the first time, you can buy anything online without giving your credit-card number or bank-account information—leaving no trace at all. Hundreds of merchants accept Bitcoins for things like books, computers, and professional services. The currency trades on a handful of Bitcoin exchanges, where the price of a Bitcoin fluctuates based on demand. Not long ago a single Bitcoin sold for less than a dollar, but in recent months the price climbed to $8, then to $20, then above $30, before falling back to $18, the current level. So is this a currency with a future? With that question in mind, Planet Money gave Bitcoin a try:
  • Planet Money: Costs of the 'Patent War'

    Alex Blumberg and his colleagues at Planet Money have been spending a lot of time lately looking into patents for software and Internet tools. First, they went to East Texas, one of the frontlines in what they say is a "war waging right now," that involves developers, tech companies, and so-called "patent trolls." They aired their findings on This American Life : This week the Planet Money team asked the larger question that these patent battles brings to mind: what is the intended role of patents and is that role being undermined by the behavior of people in the tech industry? Or, we should say, the Planet Money team asks and answers that question. Take a listen: For more on Planet Money's ongoing coverage of patents in high tech click here .
  • The Listening Room: This American Life on Job Creation

    In her latest post at Economix , Nancy Folbre reminded us about the This American Life episode on job creation. Back in May, the producers at PRI 's TAL put together an hour titled How to Create a Job . They, and their friends from Planet Money , spoke with governors, bureaucrats, job seekers, journalists and economists about who actually has the capacity to create jobs. A couple of months later, the program is as relevant as ever. Take a listen: Click here to listen to select segments.
  • Planet Money Sells Their Gold

    Back in October, we told you about the Planet Money folks buying a small bit of gold . It was a bit of an experiment, designed at figuring out why gold remains so important, and why it becomes valued in times of economic uncertainty. Last week, they sold their gold. And they were left with a big question: "What is the fundamental value of gold?" They shared a little of what they learned about that value in a report on NPR's Morning Edition . Take a listen . Read and listen to Planet Money's series on gold and the meaning of money here .
  • The Economics of the Middle Ages

    Yes times are tough now. But imagine living in an age when graft and extortion were pretty basic components to living. Planet Money went back to such a time, the Middle Ages. Take a listen:
  • Planet Money Podcast: Tracking the Flight of Millionaires

    With the ongoing debates among legislators in New Jersey and several other states over the potential effects of raising taxes on the wealthy, Planet Money 's Robert Smith and Chana Joffe-Walt decided to "track the migration patterns of millionaires." In the most recent Planet Money podcast , Smith and Joffe-Walt examine some research that suggests that increasing taxes on the wealthy has very little impact on whether they choose to stay in a state or not. Take a listen: We found the study Planet Money cited on migration patterns in New England particularly interesting. New England provides an interesting case study, with relatively small states with some rather distinct tax policy differences (the New Hampshire to Vermont, and Massachusetts to New Hampshire comparisons especially). Click here to read The Impact of Taxes on Migration in New England from Jeffrey Thompson of the Political Economy Research Institute at UMASS Amherst .
  • Planet Money Interview with Michael Lewis

    Most readers associate Michael Lewis with his best-selling books Liar's Poker , The Big Short , Moneyball , and The Blind Side . But he has written some amazing pieces on economies in danger. His long form Vanity Fair article on Iceland's collapse two years ago remains one of the best pieces of journalism on the global economic crisis. Now he's written another compelling Vanity Fair article--this time the subject is Ireland, Here's a very brief excerpt: Ireland’s financial disaster shared some things with Iceland’s. It was created by the sort of men who ignore their wives’ suggestions that maybe they should stop and ask for directions, for instance. But while Icelandic males used foreign money to conquer foreign places—trophy companies in Britain, chunks of Scandinavia—the Irish male used foreign money to conquer Ireland. Left alone in a dark room with a pile of money, the Irish decided what they really wanted to do with it was to buy Ireland. From one another. An Irish economist named Morgan Kelly, whose estimates of Irish bank losses have been the most prescient, made a back-of-the-envelope calculation that puts the losses of all Irish banks at roughly 106 billion euros. (Think $10 trillion.) At the rate money currently flows into the Irish treasury, Irish bank losses alone would absorb every penny of Irish taxes for at least the next three years. In recognition of the spectacular losses, the entire Irish economy has almost dutifully collapsed. When you fly into Dublin you are traveling, for the first time in 15 years, against the traffic. The Irish are once again leaving Ireland, along with hordes of migrant workers. In late 2006, the unemployment rate stood at a bit more than 4 percent; now it’s 14 percent and climbing toward rates not experienced since the mid-1980s. Just a few years ago, Ireland was able to borrow money more cheaply than Germany; now, if it can borrow at all, it will be charged interest rates nearly 6 percent higher than Germany, another echo of a distant past. The Irish budget deficit—which three years ago was a surplus—is now 32 percent of its G.D.P., the highest by far in the history of the Eurozone. One credit-analysis firm has judged Ireland the third-most-likely country to default. Not quite as risky for the global investor as Venezuela, but riskier than Iraq. Distinctly Third World, in any case. Read When Irish Eyes Are Crying here . Given Lewis's valuable skill at making sense of complicated financial stories, we were surprised to learn that he has very little interest in money. At least that's what he claims in an interview with Planet Money . Take a listen:
  • Planet Money: Considering Egypt's Military as Important Business Force

    The public demonstrations against the Mubarak regime in Egypt is in its 14th day . To be sure, events in Cairo are fluid, but so far the Egyptian army has been more peacekeeper than hard force for the regime. There are many reasons to explain this, but in their podcast from Friday, the Planet Money team discussed the role of the Egyptian military as employer and business owner: