• Lagarde: 'Global Risks Are Rising, But There Is a Path to Recovery'

    While those of us on the East Coast were watching the weather this weekend, top economists from around the globe were still at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium , listening to the new head of the IMF , Christine Lagarde give what Felix Salmon called "the most important speech of the meeting, by far." Lagarde gave her vision for what European and American leaders need to do to stave off a most damaging double-dip recession. From the speech: Two years ago, it became clear that resolving the crisis would require two key rebalancing acts—a domestic demand switch from the public to the private sector, and a global demand switch from external deficit to external surplus counties. On the first, the idea was that strengthened private sector finances would allow the engine of growth to switch back from the public to the private sector. On the second, the idea was that higher demand in surplus countries would make up for a lower spending path in deficit countries. But the actual progress on rebalancing has been timid at best, while the downside risks to the global economy are increasing. Those risks have been aggravated further by a deterioration in confidence and a growing sense that policymakers do not have the conviction, or simply are not willing, to take the decisions that are needed. Developments this summer have indicated that we are in a dangerous new phase. The stakes are clear: we risk seeing the fragile recovery derailed. So we must act now. It is a matter of vision, courage and timing. Decisive action will bolster the confidence that is required to restore and rebalance global growth. We are not without options. We know what needs to be done to support growth, reduce debt, and prevent further financial crises. But we need a new approach—based on bold political action, with a comprehensive plan across all policy levers, implemented in a coordinated global way. Read the speech here .
  • Prices, Inflation, and Unemployment

    The Producer Price Index for dropped 0.6 for finished goods and rose 0.2 percent for intermediate goods, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics . Here's the monthly percent changes in the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, seasonally adjusted: And here's the monthly percent changes in the Producer Price Index for Intermediate Goods, seasonally adjusted: You can read the full report here . Combine the PPI data with the Consumer Price Index data released earlier --the CPI rose 0.2 percent in September, and has fallen 1.3 percent over the last 12 months on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the BLS--and it doesn't look like inflation is an issue at this point. James Hamilton suggests that we take a look at the price data in the context of high unemployment. And he concludes "the Federal Reserve is correct in thinking that high levels of unemployment are a factor that will put downward pressure on inflation over the next two years." He breaks down the relationship between unemployment and inflation at Econbrowser . Take a look here .