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  • Boston Globe's 12 for 2012: 6 Reasons for Optimism, 6 for Pessimism

    The first work week of 2012 is now underway. As we look ahead to the year ahead, the state of the economy is first on foremost on our minds. Boston Globe Correspondent Jay Fitzgerald offers up no predictions, but rather a point-counterpoint list of reasons to be optimistic, and reasons to be pessimistic, about the economy in 2012. The six reasons to be optimistic: Momentum --that is, 2011 ended with some; Jobs --improving data on that front; Corporate profits --slowed down in 2011, so maybe companies will need to hire in order to get the growth engine humming; Inflation --"remains in check"; Exports --the weak dollar is helping sales of US exports; and Technology --high-tech/scientific sectors remain strong. Before you get too excited, here are the reasons Fitzgerald sites for pessimism: Europe --the old continent starts off 2012 with a lot of uncertainty; The job market --improving, yes, but not quickly enough. Housing --a big problem far from solved; Politics --with an election this year, it is hard to imagine policymakers in Washington coming together on any bold fixes; Energy --oil is back near $100/barrel; and Banks --American banks are better off than their European counterparts, but that is not saying much. What is Fitzgerald's list missing? And do you see the factors on one list beating out those on the other? Read Will 2012 be the year for economic optimists? here .
  • St Louis Fed President Tells Dow Jones That No More Fed Aid is Needed

    James Bullard , president of the Federal Bank of St. Louis , believes the Fed has done its job in working to right the economy. And though the recovery is not exactly humming along, Bullard views the recent "mixed " reports on housing and jobs as relatively positive, and he sees signals that we are in a "soft patch in the recovery." He spoke with Dow Jones Newswires' Michael Derb y about the state of the economy:
  • Less Mobility May Mean Slower Recovery

    Americans have historically shown a willingness to move for work, and the economy has often benefitted as a result. But according to the latest figures on mobility in the US from the Census Bureau, fewer Americans moved last year than in any year since 1962, when the total US population was 120 million people smaller than it is now. Sam Roberts of the New York Times reports on the findings. And while the lack of mobility is a not-so-surprising result of the economic downturn, it could also delay recovery: Experts said the lack of mobility was of concern on two fronts. It suggests that Americans were unable or unwilling to follow any job opportunities that may have existed around the country, as they have in the past. And the lack of movement itself, they said, could have an impact on the e conomy, reducing the economic activity generated by moves. Joseph S. Tracy, research director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York , said the lack of mobility meant less income for movers and the people they employ and less spending on renovation and on durable goods like appliances. But, Dr. Tracy said, the most troubling prospect is that people were no longer able to relocate for work. “The thing that would be of deeper concern is if job-related moves are getting suppressed and workers are not getting re-sorted to the jobs that best use their skills,” he said. “As the labor market started to improve, if mobility stays low, you can worry about the allocation of workers.” Roberts discussed the report on The Takeaway with John Hockenberry and Katherine Lanpher . Listen to their conversation here . And read As Housing Market Dips, More in U.S. Are Staying Put here .