Mark Thoma has become one of the key members of the Econoblogosphere. His Economist's View blog is a must read for anyone tracking developments in the US economy and economic thinking in general. Now he's also writing for CBS's Moneywatch.com . In a recent post at his new spot, Thoma takes a look at unemployment and whether we will have to accept a "new normal" for the percentage of Americans out of work: Prior to the current recession, the target rate of unemployment — the sum of the frictional and structural components — was somewhere near 4 percent. Will it be the same after the recession ends? That depends upon what happens to the frictional and structural components of overall unemployment. Frictional unemployment falls during recessions. People are afraid to leave their jobs, even jobs they dislike quite a bit, because the prospects for finding new employment aren’t very good. And searching for a new job while still employed is less likely to be successful than during boom times. But as the economy recovers and confidence in job prospects recovers along with it, the level of frictional unemployment should go back close to where it was. Thus, I don’t expect this component to change very much. The change in the structural component could, however, be significant. I expect structural unemployment to be higher than it was, particularly in the next few years. We had too many resources in housing, finance, and automobile production, and it will take time for the economy to make the necessary structural adjustments. When this is combined with continuing globalization, as well as the higher savings rate and correspondingly lower consumption expected from households in the future, both of which cause structural change within the economy, the expectation is that the new target rate of unemployment will rise above the 4 percent level it was at before the recession. Read the full post here .