Menzie Chinn has a collection of useful charts at Econbrowser illustrating the state of manufacturing in the US. Here's one, showing "cumulative changes in real exports vis a vis 2009Q2." Chinn writes: Clearly, export growth is decelerating -- not surprising given the collapse in trade volumes that took place during the great recession. Nonetheless, I find it interesting how much capital goods exports have increased. Now, as I mentioned in an earlier post, vertical specialization means that it’s unclear how much value added is incorporated in particularly the goods exports. Still, I think there is evidence for a manufactured exports rebound. Finally, there has been substantial skepticism that manufacturing employment will rebound strongly, even if the President’s initiatives outlined in the State of the Union are implemented. [4] I think that skepticism is largely warranted, given rapid productivity growth in that sector. However, that doesn’t mean that manufacturing value added won’t necessarily rebound. BEA only released data up to 2010 last month, so one can’t be sure. So while we have seen some marked improvement in U.S. exports and a a trimming of the trade imbalance, the question remains whether we will see sustained growth, and the sort of recovery-driving rebound of the manufacturing sector that President Obama has been calling for. Read Net Exports, Exports, Real Exchange Rates and Manufacturing here .
Filed under: innovation, obama, global business, exports, Carnegie Council, manufacturers, factories, trade balance, global ethics corner, output, manufactured goods, state of the union, capital goods