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  • Long-Run Debt and The Intersection of Fiscal and Monetary Policy

    Mark Thoma thinks Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke were wrong to give their opinions about fiscal policy during Congressional testimony. But he does think that the Fed chair should address the effect of fiscal policy on monetary policy: That is, while I don’t think the Fed chair should give advice on the specifics of fiscal policy, the chair should make clear how fiscal policy choices will affect or constrain monetary policy. Let me try to explain how monetary and fiscal policy are connected through the budget deficit. There are two different government budget issues to think about. The first concerns the long-run trajectory for the debt, and the projections are that the debt will expand to unsustainable levels if we don’t do something to stop it. That means, above all else, reducing the growth in health care costs. The second issue concerns the short-run debt created in an attempt to stimulate the economy. This is a small amount compared to the long-run debt problem, but it is still a lot of money and we will need to pay this back when things are back to normal (but not before then, since paying it back too soon could undermine a recovery). And Thoma goes on, in his Money Watch column, to look at "the long-run debt problems" as a way of exploring the potential challenges of the Fed moving forward. Read The Relationship Between Budget Deficits, Fed Independence, and Inflation .
  • Roubini Warns of W-Shaped Recession

    Nouriel Roubini is more concerned about looming inflation than Alan Blinder (see previous post). The NYU economics professor and chair of RGE Monitor sees a looming "W-shaped"--or "double-dip"--recession for both Europe and the United States. And today, speaking to CNBC from the Paris Conference on Long-Term Vlue and Economic Stability , Roubini warned of the effect of rising oil prices.
  • Merle Hazzard: 'Inflation or Deflation'

    While we're thinking about the deflation, it seems like a good time to share the latest Merle Hazzard release: Inflation or Deflation? : So what's your take? "Will we become Zimbabwe or will we be Japan?" You can also watch Merle's interview with Stanford economist John Taylor , which apparently inspired the above song.