KnowNOW!

Global Economic Watch

Syndication

Recent Posts

Tags

Archives

  • Satayajit Das: A Call for Cooperation Among Key Finance Ministers

    Satyajit Das --global banking expert and author of several books on banking and trading, including Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk --says that the global economy is in for a lot of pain this year if policymakers don't start working together. In an interview with the Institute for New Economic Thinking 's Robert Johnson , Das argues that we need to return to the approach that finance ministers took in 2008-2009, when the consequence were clear and the need for cooperation was better understood. Here is an excerpt from that interview: Watch the full interview here .
  • Stephen Roach: 'Odds of a hard landing in China and India remain low'

    We find it hard to talk about China without talking about India. Sometimes, for the sake of economic comparison, we pit the two against each other. Other times we pit the two, often along with South American kindred spirit Brazil, against the developed economies of the West. india and China seemed to zag while the rest of the world zigged during the global economic crisis, and were able to grow while the US, China, and Europe stagnated. But as 2011 ends, the two growing powerhouse economies are showing some vulnerability. At Project Syndicate , Stephen Roach warns us not to carried away by concerns that China and India will struggle in the coming year. He is a little worried about India's ability to avert crisis. As for China, Roach says not to expect a "hard landing," as China's policymakers have taken necessary action to ward off any major downfall: That is particularly evident in Chinese officials’ successful campaign against inflation. Administrative measures in the agricultural sector, aimed at alleviating supply bottlenecks for pork, cooking oil, fresh vegetables, and fertilizer, have pushed food-price inflation lower. This is the main reason why the headline consumer inflation rate receded from 6.5% in July 2011 to 4.2% in November. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China, which hiked benchmark one-year lending rates five times in the 12 months ending this October, to 6.5%, now has plenty of scope for monetary easing should economic conditions deteriorate. The same is true with mandatory reserves in the banking sector, where the government has already pruned 50 basis points off the record 21.5% required-reserve ratio. Relatively small fiscal deficits – only around 2% of GDP in 2010 – leave China with an added dimension of policy flexibility should circumstances dictate. India, however, "is more problematic," Roach notes: India is more problematic. As the only economy in Asia with a current-account deficit, its external funding problems can hardly be taken lightly. Like China, India’s economic-growth momentum is ebbing. But unlike China, the downshift is more pronounced – GDP growth fell through the 7% threshold in the third calendar-year quarter of 2011, and annual industrial output actually fell by 5.1% in October. But the real problem is that, in contrast to China, Indian authorities have far less policy leeway. For starters, the rupee is in near free-fall. That means that the Reserve Bank of India – which has hiked its benchmark policy rate 13 times since the start of 2010 to deal with a still-serious inflation problem – can ill afford to ease monetary policy. Moreover, an outsize consolidated government budget deficit of around 9% of GDP limits India’s fiscal-policy discretion. Read Why India is Riskier than China here .
  • Europe's Dollar Problems

    Europe has its euro problems. But it has dollar problems as well. Like most of us, European banks don't have enough dollars. In the latest Marketplace Whiteboard , Paddy Hirsch explains why European banks need US capital, even though they have their own currency:
  • Alistair Darling on Steps that Could Have Been Taken, and Now Should be Taken to Strengthen Banking System and Economy

    Alistair Darling was the Chancellor of the Exchequer when the Global Economic Crisis hit, and he was tasked with rescuing Britain's banking system. Now he argues that further banking reforms are necessary to prevent another crisis. He spoke about that need, and the state of the global economy today, when he sat down for Tea with the Economist :
  • South Africa's Ambassador to the US on the Economic Growth and Responsibility of South Africa

    The South African economy has performed relatively well in the aftermath of the Global Economic Crisis. Ebrahim Rasool , South Africa's ambassador to the United States, tells Knowledge@Wharton 's Steve Sherretta that the country's "robust" banking system deserves much of the credit for the economic growth. Rasool also discussed the somewhat unique position South Africa applies as a vital bridge for global business. South Africa links the developing nations of Sub-Saharan Africa with Europe and the West. It also, as Rasool discusses, carries a great deal of responsibility for the economic good of an entire continent.
  • Martin Baily on Why Ireland's Struggles Matter to US

    Dublin-based RTE reported yesterday that the EU and IMF bailout package for Ireland's ailing economy will total 85 billion euro. Standard and Poor's lowered Ireland's bond rating from AA to A . And now the euro has fallen to two-month low against the dollar. Bad news for Ireland and the Euro-zone. But also bad news for the US, says Brookings Senior Fellow Martin Baily , who sees instability in Europe as a real threat to US recovery: For more of Baily's analysis of the impact of European struggles on US recovery, click here .
  • Greek Crisis: Animated

    Athens based design company NOMINT has taken a stab at explaining Greece's debt crisis. Here's part I: The Greek Crisis Explained, Episode 1 from NOMINT on Vimeo . You can watch part II here . And stay tuned for more episodes.
  • With Bailout of Greece, Eurozone Faces Important Test

    Greece's Prime Minister, George Papandreou , promised that his country will adhere to the European Union's rescue plan and will make spending cuts to bring down the deficit. Currently, the deficit is at 12.7% of GDP, and Papandreou has said his government will bring it down to 2% over the next three years. The recent struggles of Greece--along with other countries, like Spain--are taking a toll on the Eurozone. Wolfgang Munchau , columnist for the Financial Times , writes that the Euro Zone "is entering the most dangerous phase in its 11-year history." He sees the bailout of Greece as an important test. The political maneuvering must be in support of strong economic policy, and actions must be transparent in order to "achieve a maximum degree of legitimacy." Munchau: A good crisis-resolution system must also minimise moral hazard. Countries that benefit from help will have to accept a partial loss of sovereignty, and for this reason it is important that any such regime has wide political backing in all the member states. While eurozone members lack the political will for unconditional bail-outs, they accept that they need to help each other during a crisis. But this help is attached to the condition that the recipient takes corrective action. The second essential prerequisite for survival is a reduction in internal imbalances, which lie at the core of the current crisis. This is an issue that requires action both in countries with large current account deficits, such as Greece and Spain, and in those with large surpluses such as Germany. While Spain, for example, would need to reform its labour market to bring about adjustments in real wages, Germany should implement policies to stimulate consumption, including a long-overdue income tax reform. The build-up of these imbalances is the underlying reason why the Greek problem got out of hand. The place to handle this co-ordination is the eurogroup of the finance ministers of the eurozone, which now constitutes an official European Union institution under the Lisbon treaty. Jean-Claude Juncker , the prime minister of Luxembourg and chairman of the eurogroup, should make imbalances the defining issue of his agenda and propose binding policies. Read What the eurozone must do if it is to survive here .
  • The Street Poll on the Impact of Dubai Crisis

    The United Arab Emirates has "pledge[d] to lend money to banks operating in Dubai ," according to the New York Times , in an effort to prevent big disruptions on markets around the world after Dubai's announcement on Friday that the once-high-flying emirate needs to "reschedule" debt payments. The Street 's Eric Rosenbaum is now polling readers, asking who will be hit the hardest by the Dubai "sand trap," and he writes that the impact could be widespread: Big bank lenders to Dubai and the United Arab Emirates, including the Royal Bank of Scotland ( RBS Quote ) , HSBC ( HSBC Quote ) and Standard Chartered were throttled, as was the entire banking sector in the broad sell-off. However, the implications from the Dubai sand-trap could spread across many players, sectors and slices of the economy, and it's still anyone's guess as to the true significance of the debt crisis. There is already talk that the problems in Dubai could serve as an emerging-markets contagion, harkening back to Argentina in 2000 and Russia in the 1990s. Read the article and participate in the poll here .
  • Doing Business Country by Country

    The World Bank has a map that serves as a great reference for the relative ease of doing business around the globe. It covers 183 economies, and rates how easy or difficult it is to conduct business in each. Each country is rated easy, moderate, or difficult. Click on a country to get its exact ranking based on factors like "starting a business," "getting credit," "protecting investors," and "trading across borders" (there are 10 categories in all). Then keep clicking through for more and more precise and country-specific data. Here's a quick look at the map: Click here to use the interactive map.
  • OECD Report: 'Deepest and Most Widespread Post-War Recession'

    The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development released its Interim Economic Outlook report this week, ahead of tomorrow's G20 summit, and it is another dire report on the global economic crisis. The report's authors seem struck by the reach of the current crisis. The write, "the OECD economy is in the midst of its deepest and most wide-spread recession for more than 50 years." The OECD is made up of 30 different countries--mostly from Europe, but also major global economies like the United States, Australia, Japan, Canada and Mexico--and as the below chart shows, almost every member nation has had a downturn for at least the last two quarters: In the report, the OECD makes an urgent call for restoring confidence in the markets, and finding ways to unfreeze credit and get lending started up again. In the below interview, OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria emphasizes calls on G20 nations to focus on those goals at the summit tomorrow: Read the OECD's interim Economic Outlook report here, and a country-by-country analysis of the G7 nations here .