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  • Gallup Trends: Stock Ownership Among Americans Keeps Dropping

    With the Dow Jones Industrial Average topping 15,000 for the first time, it seems like a good time for Americans to invest in the stock market. And yet fewer Americans are investing in stocks. Here's a look at the decline in the percentage of Americans investing, from Gallup : We should be careful not to come to the conclusion that Americans' don't have faith in stocks, or that they don't want to invest. This is likely more a result of American families, especially middle-aged and middle-income Americans, not having the money to invest that they did in the 90s. In fact, the biggest drops in ownership are among those groups: Read more from Gallup here .
  • Washington DC Metro Most Optimistic About US Economy

    When we are looking for reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. economy, we try our best not to look in the direction of our nation's capital. And yet, it turns out that is a hotspot of economic optimism. At least relative to feelings about the economy in other metro areas. Gallup has released the 2012 Economic Confidence Index scores for U.S. Metro areas and Washington, DC comes in with a score of +5. The only other metro areas with positive scores on the index are San Jose and San Francisco-Oakland. Jacksonville, FL is at the other end of the spectrum with an Economic Confidence Index score of -28. DC Metro residents are also the most positive (or least negative) about current economic conditions as well: Overall, economic confidence scores in large metro areas were more positive last year than in 2011. Residents in the Washington, San Jose, and San Francisco areas had the most positive scores on the Gallup Economic Confidence Index. Nationally, the Economic Confidence Index has remained in negative territory since Gallup began daily tracking in 2008. But Americans' economic confidence has improved so far in 2013, matching a five-year monthly high in January and February. These signs suggest Americans are feeling more confident about their local job market and the U.S economy. Read the full release here .
  • Economic Confidence Declines With Failure to Reach Budget Deal

    Americans' confidence in the economy took a hit at the end of last week when our elected officials failed to come up with a deal to avoid the so-called sequestration. Here is a look at the weekly averages of Gallup 's Economic Confidence Index : But before we get too caught up in the drop, here's a look at the monthly averages: As Gallup's Alyssa Brown notes, economic confidence had been at a five-year high. The question is whether action in Washington (or inaction) will offset the larger trend. A majority of Americans, 56%, say the nation's economy will suffer this year if the federal budget sequestration goes into effect and 44% say sequestration will harm their own finances. This sentiment, combined with a sharp decline in Americans' economic confidence in the week ending March 3, suggests that Americans' monthly economic confidence may slip further in March. But, Americans' confidence in the economy did rebound quickly after the fiscal cliff debate came to an end, so confidence may similarly bounce back if leaders in Washington reach a deal. Read the full release here .
  • North Dakota Top Scorer in Gallup's Job Creation Index for Fourth Year in a Row

    The Midwest was the highest scoring region for Gallup 's Job Creation Index for 2012, but the index showed improvement across the nation. Only four states--Arizona, Delaware, Mississippi, and West Virginia--had lower survey scores than 2011. Gallup's Job Creation Index is based on employee reports of their own company's hiring activity, so we don't want to go overboard on what the data tells us her, but the trending is positive. Here is a look at Gallup's interactive map: On average in Gallup Daily tracking from January through December 2012, 43% of North Dakota workers said their company was hiring workers and expanding the size of its workforce, while 9% said their employer was letting workers go and reducing the size of its workforce, for a +34 Job Creation Index score. This is easily the best among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and is 16 percentage points above the national average of +18. North Dakota has ranked first four years in a row. Full results by state for 2012 can be found on page 2. South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Oklahoma, Utah, and the District of Columbia have also all ranked among the top states in hiring in 2011 and 2012. Maine is new to the bottom 10 states in 2012, compared with 2011, largely because its +10 Job Creation Index score was unchanged while most states showed improvement. Connecticut, Idaho, New Jersey, Oregon, New Mexico, New York, and California are the seven states that made a repeat appearance among the bottom 10 in 2012. Read the full report here .
  • Gallup: Most Americans Expect Another Difficult Year for U.S. Economy

    Americans are not exactly bullish when it comes to the economic prospects for 2013, according to the results of a Gallup poll released this week. Take a look: From the report: The 65% of Americans who predict 2013 will be a year of economic difficulty is one of the more negative responses to this question since Gallup first asked it in 1965. There has been, however, a great deal of fluctuation over that time period, from a high of 65% who said 1965 would be a year of prosperity, to a low of 7% who predicted 1974 would be a year of prosperity. A majority of Americans were positive about the economy in 1998 and 1999, while swinging more to the "economic difficulty" side of the ledger when asked about 2005. On a more positive note, the majority of those surveyed expect to see increasing employment this year: Read the full survey results here .
  • American Satisfaction and Economic Confidence Trending Up

    Gallup is reporting that Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the country remains above 30%. That may not seem very high, but satisfaction has been above 30% for three months now, following three years below that mark. What we find striking in the latest Gallup report has to do with Americans' views on the economy. While economic matters are the most pressing concern for over 60% of Americans, there is a sharp post-election dip. Take a look: This coupled with the rise in Gallup's Economic Confidence Index suggests the rise in overall satisfaction in the direction of the country has a lot to do with changing confidence in the economic outlook. Take a look at the full report here .
  • Gallup: Blue Collar Workers Most Pessimistic About Job Prospects

    Workers around the world on not very optimistic about their job prospects. And blue collar workers are especially pessimistic. According to a Gallup survey conducted globally last year but released this week, 33% of blue collar workers worldwide thought that it was a good time to look for a job. 38% of white collar workers thought it was a good time to look for a job. Not surprisingly then, there is a strong correlation between education levels and optimism. Workers around the world who did not complete secondary school are the least optimistic--with the notable exception of the Americas: From the survey release: The global recession continued to affect many economies throughout the world in 2011. However, the economic downturn has not always influenced global residents' perceptions of their ability to find a job in their local city or area. Women have historically been less positive than men about the local job market, and those with more education are more likely to find sustainable employment than those with less. With the exception of Latin America, white-collar workers have fared better worldwide than blue-collar workers. In 2011, residents in the Americas -- except in the U.S. -- have generally remained more positive about the job market because of lower unemployment, economies driven by a growing middle class, natural resource exports, minerals and commodities, and less integration of their financial sectors with those of the recession-hit U.S. and Europe. Despite generally more positive perceptions in selected regions and countries, world residents have historically struggled to be more positive than negative when it comes to local job prospects. Economic uncertainty and rigid policies, systemic unemployment, political unrest, and corruption contribute to negative perceptions. However, these negative perceptions might also be an indicator of something positive -- that global residents are not satisfied with the status quo and continue to strive to make better lives for themselves and their families through good jobs. Read the full release here .
  • Gallup's New Employment Measure

    With a lot of economists and economy-watchers not fully satisfied with the unemployment rate as a measure of how many Americans are out of work, Gallup is launching a new measure. Payroll to Population is designed to give a clearer picture of the percentage of all Americans who are employed full time. Gallup has been collecting data for Payroll to Population since 2010, and has now put out its first release. Here's a look at the trend since January, 2010: From the report: Gallup's Payroll to Population employment measure adds value to the understanding of the economy beyond that provided by the unemployment rate, the current gold standard of employment metrics. Both Gallup and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics assess unemployment, but Payroll to Population is a measure unique to Gallup. Payroll to Population is a straightforward measure based on the number of adults in the total population who work for an employer at least 30 hours per week. As the employment situation improves or deteriorates, or as populations move in and out of the workforce, Payroll to Population will do the same, and is a true representation of the economic energy of the country. In contrast, unemployment rates are based on the number of adults in the workforce who are looking for and available for work. This classic measure has become the main gauge of the nation's employment situation, and its long trends provide significant value, but the unemployment statistic also can paint an incomplete -- or in some instances, misleading -- portrait of the status of the workforce. Case in point, in the August jobs report released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there was a drop in the size of the workforce -- reflecting more discouragement among job seekers -- that helped to bring the unemployment rate down. Additionally, the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics calculations involve elaborate adjustments each month, which can mask underlying trends, and traditional unemployment metrics count Americans who are working at least one hour per week as employed. In contrast, Payroll to Population will only increase or decrease if there is a change to the number of Americans working full-time jobs. Read the full release here .
  • Gallup Poll Shows Small Business Owners Intend to Create More Jobs

    More small business owners intend to make new hires over the next year, according to a recently released Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index poll. 22% of small business owners expect to increase the total number of jobs at their businesses, while just 8% expect to decrease the number of jobs. Here's a look at the index trend: From Gallup: The increase in small-business owner hiring intentions over the past year is consistent with the strong performance of Gallup's Job Creation Index in January and the decline in the unemployment rate as measured by Gallup at mid-month. At the same time, small-business owners have often expected to increase hiring in recent years but later reported that they actually eliminated more jobs than they created. So it remains to be seen whether the greater expectations for hiring in the next 12 months will become reality. The preference of small-business owners for hiring temporary, contract, and part-time workers may help explain why Gallup is seeing increasing numbers of people working part time but wanting full-time work even when the unemployment rate is lower. Further, this preference may reflect the continued caution on the part of many small-business owners toward the U.S. economy. Just a year ago, many owners also hoped to significantly increase their hiring in 2011, but their current reports of hiring they did last year indicates that this did not happen. Many small-business owners also continue to say they are having trouble finding qualified employees. This situation could end up hurting a lot more than one in five small businesses if hiring begins in earnest later this year. While small-business owners tend to be agile -- and have demonstrated their ability to adjust to the business cycle as needed to survive -- weak economic conditions have persisted since 2008. Read the full release here . (hat tip Small Business Trends )
  • Gallup: 'Worries About Job Cutbacks Return to Record Highs'

    Gallup has released the new polling data today that shows nearly a third of all Americans are worried about losing their jobs. Americans were this worried about job stability two years ago, but concern dropped 5 points last year, according to Gallup. Even more Americans are concerned that they will lose benefits and/or pay: More from the report: With the U.S. unemployment rate running 50% higher than it was in 2008 (approximately 9% today vs. 6% then), American workers are again expressing record- or near-record-high levels of concern about the stability of their jobs and income. This reverses the slight improvement seen a year ago, when U.S. workers' concerns about losing a job, pay, or benefits had abated slightly. The rates of concern are even higher among workers who are the most vulnerable to financial setback -- those with low to moderate incomes. Together, the findings document the ongoing psychological impact of the country's economic problems on many working Americans and how fragile the economic recovery is in their eyes. When workers are worried about their jobs and their income more broadly, this is likely to affect broader economic confidence, the housing market, and consumer spending. Read the full report here .
  • Retail Sales Down From April, But Up from May, 2009--Who is Buying?

    The latest data from the Commerce Department shows that retail sales dropped 1.2% from April to May. As the Wall Street Journal's Justin Lahart and Rachel Dodes note , that's the first monthly drop since last September. The year-to-year data looks more positive. Here's the percent change in retail and food sales from the Census Bureau : So who has been driving that 7.9% jump in sales over the last year? According to a recent Gallup survey, it is wealthy Americans and elderly consumers. While daily spending among lower- and middle-income Americans has stayed just below $60, on average, for the last year, upper-income Americans show a different pattern. From Gallup: Perhaps more surprising is the increase in spending among elderly Americans. Consumer 65 and over went from spending, on average, $44 in May, 2009, to spending $64 a day on average in May of 2010. Read more from Gallup here .