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We have some disappointing numbers out of Eurostat this morning. GDP across the Euro Area declined 0.2% in the first quarter. The year over year drop was 1.0%. France, the euro zone's second largest economy, saw its GDP drop for the second quarter in a row. The data for each country is available here .

Europe is still waiting for unemployment rates to plateau. According to Eurostat , the rate ended February at 12%, up from 11.8% in January. The unemployment rate across the EU is now 10.9%, up from 10.8% across the Euro area. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in nineteen Member States and fell in eight. The highest increases were registered in Greece (21.4% to 26.4% between December 2011 and December 2012), Cyprus (10.2% to 14.0%), Portugal (14.8% to 17.5%) and Spain (23.9% to 26.3%). The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (15.6% to 14.3% between the fourth quarters of 2011 and 2012), Estonia (10.8% to 9.9% between January 2012 and January 2013) and Ireland (15.1% to 14.2%). Between February 2012 and February 2013, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.7% to 11.9% in the euro area and from 10.1% to 10.9% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 11.2% to 12.0% in the euro area and from 10.3% to 10.9% in the EU27. In February 2013, 5.694 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.581 million were in the euro area. Compared with February 2012, youth unemployment rose by 196 000 in the EU27 and by 188 000 in the euro area. In February 2013, the youth unemployment rate was 23.5% in the EU27 and 23.9% in the euro area, compared with 22.5% and 22.3% respectively in February 2012. In February 2013, the lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.7%), Austria (8.9%) and the Netherlands (10.4%), and the highest in Greece (58.4% in December 2012), Spain (55.7%), Portugal (38.2%) and Italy (37.8%). Unemployment in Britain is now at 7.7%--the same as the U.S. (though that figure may change when we get the next jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday). Unemployment rate remains below 6% in Austria, Germany, and Luxembourg, and above 26% in Spain and Greece. Cyprus has 14.2% unemployment. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here .

In Europe, all eyes are out to sea...looking at the island nation of Cyprus. On Saturday, Cypriot leaders agreed to a plan with EU authorities that includes a "one time tax" on bank deposits. This has set off protests in Cyprus and a lot of discussion, whether we will see a run on the banks there, and what the long term effects on the European and global economies will be. The Guardian has a running, minute-by-minute blog following events in Cyprus, here . But for those just getting up to speed on the news, we recommend a short piece from Antonio Fatas When it comes to the government of Cyprus, they are hopeful that everyone will understand that this was a one-time event and that the country can now move forward. From CNBC here is a quote from the Cyprus finance minister Michael Sarris: "Absolutely, there is no capital restrictions, people can move. We hope people will believe us, believe the collective leadership of the European Union, that this was a necessary step, but a single shot at the problem, and that from now on they can be very confident that nothing will happen to their savings." This will not happen, people will not believe them (not to mention the fact that the parliament has postponed the approval of the agreement that was scheduled to happen on Sunday). Prepared for several rounds of panic. I doubt the banking system will be able to operate without some capital restrictions over the coming days. On the other side, there are those who panic that this is the prelude of bank runs in Greece, Spain, Portugal or Italy. This is certainly a possibility and we have already seen withdrawals of deposits in some of these countries during this crisis, but it will take a lot of panic to produce a significant bank run. The reason is that there are still costs or barriers to produce a widespread bank run in these countries. The assumption that all the depositors in these banks will immediately open an account in Germany and transfer all their funds is (fortunately) not obvious. There are significant restrictions in opening of bank accounts even within the Euro area if depositors do not have residence in the country where the bank is established. Of course, there is always the option of hiding all your deposits under your mattress (or a cash vault) but both they represent a risk or they simply are not practical enough. Having said that, in the event where there is a strong perception that a similar "one-time-tax" is about to happen in other countries, these barriers will not be enough, so a bank run cannot be ruled out either. Read the full piece here .

***This post has been edited to correct an inaccuracy Unemployment is still rising in Europe. According to Eurostat , the rate ended January at 11.8%, up from 11.7% at the start of the year, and up from 10.8% in January of last year. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in nineteen Member States, fell in seven and remained stable in Denmark. The largest decreases were observed in Estonia (11.1% to 9.9% between December 2011 and December 2012), Latvia (15.5% to 14.4% between the fourth quarters of 2011 and 2012), Romania (7.4% to 6.6%) and the United Kingdom (8.3% to 7.7% between November 2011 and November 2012). The highest increases were registered in Greece (20.8% to 27.0% between November 2011 and November 2012), Cyprus (9.9% to 14.7%), Portugal (14.7% to 17.6%) and Spain (23.6% to 26.2%). Between January 2012 and January 2013, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.6% to 11.8% in the euro area and from 10.0% to 10.8% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 11.0% to 12.1% in the euro area and from 10.2% to 10.9% in the EU27. In January 2013, 5.732 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.642 million were in the euro area. Compared with January 2012, youth unemployment rose by 264 000 in the EU27 and by 295 000 in the euro area. In January 2013, the youth unemployment rate was 23.6% in the EU27 and 24.2% in the euro area, compared with 22.4% and 21.9% respectively in January 2012. In January 2013 the lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.9%), Austria (9.9%) and the Netherlands (10.3%), and the highest in Greece (59.4% in November 2012), Spain (55.5%) and Italy (38.7%). The unemployment rate remains below 6% in Austria, Germany, and Luxembourg. The rate in Spain and Greece remains above 26%. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here . ***In an earlier version of this post, we wrote that we were awaiting the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, and that it would be released later today (March 1). The March jobs report will be released on March 8.

Writing at VoxEU , Simon J Evenett --Professor of International Trade, University of St. Gallen in Switzerland-likens a currency war to a "rash" likely to break out depending on how policy makers respond to a global recession. But does that make currency wars inevitable? Evenett writes: Is it possible to design an economic recovery package that takes account of the lessons of history while doing the least possible harm – even potentially benefiting – foreign trading partners? For sure some won’t like this question, reasoning no doubt as follows: when (not if) monetary easing leads to economic recovery, the associated expansion in corporate and personal spending will increase demand for foreign goods and services – so in the long run everything will be hunky dory for trading partners, even with monetary easing. Still, the question is a good one because if there are plausible alternatives then (a) maybe the currency war was not inevitable or (b) the decisions not to pursue these policy alternatives points to underappreciated causes of the currency war. Taking as given that the effect of monetary easing on the exchange rate will harm, at least in the short run, foreign trading partners, what other complementary measures could have been taken to limit international tensions? One such measure would have been to combine monetary easing with expansionary fiscal policy. To the extent that the latter directly or indirectly (through supply chains, the demand for commodities, parts, and components, and induced private-sector capital formation) increased demand for imports then this would have offset, possibly fully, the impact of any currency depreciation by industrialised countries. Seen in this light, no wonder trading partners were worried that currency devaluations that accompanied austerity measures (restrictive fiscal policy) in industrialised economies further harmed their commercial interests. The adoption of austerity measures from 2010 closed the door on policy measures that could have mitigated the international tensions created by go-it-alone monetary easing by in the industrialised countries. There are other ways to bolster demand for foreign goods and services. Another road not taken in recent years was far-reaching trade and investment reforms, which would have provided a fillip to trade partners harmed by adverse currency movements. It is difficult to see how a package of extensive trade reform and monetary easing could have been received worse by trading partners than what actually came to pass. This is not the place to recount the trials and tribulations of completing the Doha Round, but it is worth noting that the unwillingness to further integrate the world markets has exacerbated today currency war. Read Root causes of currency wars here .

Now to the actual European policymakers. The European Central Bank today announced that it will keep its key interest rate at the record low 0.75 percent . ECB president Mario Draghi said that brighter (though it might be more accurate to say "less cloudy") skies are on the horizon for later this year, but Europe's economic weakness will carry well into 2013. From Draghi's press conference: Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Following a contraction of 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2012, euro area real GDP declined by 0.1% in the third quarter. Available statistics and survey indicators continue to signal further weakness in activity, which is expected to extend into this year, reflecting the adverse impact on domestic expenditure of weak consumer and investor sentiment and subdued foreign demand. However, more recently several conjunctural indicators have broadly stabilised, albeit at low levels, and financial market confidence has improved significantly. Later in 2013 a gradual recovery should start, as our accommodative monetary policy stance, the significant improvement in financial market confidence and reduced fragmentation work their way through to private domestic expenditure, and a strengthening of foreign demand should support export growth. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside. They are mainly related to slow implementation of structural reforms in the euro area, geopolitical issues and imbalances in major industrialised countries. These factors have the potential to dampen sentiment for longer than currently assumed and delay further the recovery of private investment, employment and consumption. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.2% in December 2012, unchanged from November and down from 2.5% in October and 2.6% in August and September. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates are expected to decline further to below 2% this year. Over the policy-relevant horizon, in an environment of weak economic activity in the euro area and well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain contained. Risks to the outlook for price developments are seen as broadly balanced over the medium term, with downside risks stemming from weaker economic activity and upside risks relating to higher administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher oil prices. Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued. The annual growth rate of M3 remained broadly unchanged at 3.8% in November 2012, after 3.9% in October. M3 growth continued to be driven by a preference for liquid assets, as M1 growth increased further to 6.7% in November, from 6.5% in October, reflecting inflows into overnight deposits from households and non-financial corporations. Following our non-standard monetary policy measures and action by other policy-makers, a broadly based strengthening in the deposit base of MFIs in a number of stressed countries was observed. This allowed several MFIs to reduce further their reliance on Eurosystem funding and helped to reduce segmentation in financial markets. M3 growth was also supported by an inflow of capital into the euro area, as reflected in the strong increase in the net external asset position of MFIs. Read the full transcript of Draghi's address here .

There seemed to be no bright lights for European economies in 2012. But perhaps we were not looking closely enough at what was happening in some of the EU's stronger economies, like Germany. While we were watching Angela Merkel and German citizens struggle with how debt crises in Greece and Spain and Italy would affect everyone in the Euro Zone, German exports, apparently, were doing quite well. From Der Spiegel : In the first 11 months of 2012, exports grew 4.3 percent to €1.018 trillion ($1.335 trillion), the Federal Statistics Office said. Stagnant sales to the rest of the European Union contrasted with a 10.4 percent jump in exports to non-EU nations. Separately, the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) said it expects the value of exports to have reached €1.103 trillion in 2012 as a whole, a four percent rise over 2011, when they exceeded the €1 trillion level for the first time. It also forecast slightly stronger export growth of 5 percent in 2013, to €1.16 trillion. Still, exports weakened at the end of 2012, pulled down by slumping demand in Europe, Germany's biggest market. Some key questions emerge from this report: 1) What does this tell us for the overall global impact of a declining Europe? 2) What role does the weakened value of the euro play in increasing sales of German exports in the U.S., Brazil, China? 3) What might the impact of continuing growth of German exports be on other European economies? Read the full article here .

Kemal Derviş , former minister of economy in Turkey and VP of the World Bank, is glad that the Federal Reserve has tied interest rate policy to a "numerical employment target". He would like to see other central banks follow the Fed's lead, especially the European Central Bank. From Project Syndicate : The spread of global value-chains that integrate hundreds of millions of developing-country workers into the global economy, as well as new labor-saving technologies, imply little chance of cost-push wage inflation. Likewise, the market for long-term bonds indicates extremely low inflation expectations (of course, interest rates are higher in cases of perceived sovereign default or re-denomination risk, such as in Southern Europe, but that has nothing to do with inflation). Moreover, the deleveraging underway since the 2008 financial implosion could be easier if inflation were moderately higher for a few years, a debate the International Monetary Fund encouraged a year ago. Together with these considerations, policymakers should take into account the tremendous human and economic costs of high unemployment, ranging from the millions of shattered lives, skills erosion, and disappearance of opportunities for an entire generation, to the dead-weight loss of idle human resources. Is the failure to ensure that millions of young people acquire the skills required to participate in the economy not as great a liability for a society as a large stock of public debt? Nowhere is this reordering of priorities more needed than in the eurozone. Yet, strangely, it is the Fed, not the ECB, that has set an unemployment target. The US unemployment rate has declined to around 7.7% and the current-account deficit is close to $500 billion, while eurozone unemployment is at a record high, near 12%, and the current account shows a surplus approaching $100 billion. If the ECB’s inflation target were 3%, rather than close to but below 2%, and Germany, with the world’s largest current-account surplus, encouraged 6% wage growth and tolerated 4% inflation – implying modest real-wage growth in excess of expected productivity gains – the eurozone adjustment process would become less politically and economically costly. Indeed, the policy calculus in Northern Europe greatly underestimates the economic losses due to the disruptions imposed on the South by excessive austerity and wage deflation. The resulting high levels of youth unemployment, health problems, and idle production capacity also all have a substantial impact on demand for imports from the North. Read Should Central Banks Target Employment? here .