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  • Marketplace Whiteboard: 'Spotting a double-dip recession'

    Is it possible to spot a double-dip recession before it hits? Marketplace 's Paddy Hirsch is dubious. But he is willing to give it a try. And considering the challenge reminds him of surfing: Double-dip recession from Marketplace on Vimeo .

  • Black Friday Retail Sales Rise Only Slightly, But Overall Data Encouraging

    ShopperTrak reports that sales at retail outlets increased 0.3% on Black Friday 2010 over Black Friday 2009. Not exactly a sharp increase--the increase from 2008 to 2009 was 0.5%. But when you take a look at other factors, there is a lot for retailers to like about holiday shopping so far: ShopperTrak's data shows early holiday sales and door buster promotions impacted Friday's performance as the company saw some unexpected strength in early November - as sales and traffic for the first two weeks of the month through Nov. 13 increased 6.1 and 6.2 percent respectively versus the same two week period in 2009. ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin says this early boost could impact retail performance beyond Black Friday and into the weeks leading into Super Saturday. "Retailers were very conscious of driving traffic early in November and in doing so some might have thinned Black Friday spending a bit," Mr. Martin said. "The reality is we have a deal driven consumer in 2010 and that consumer responded to some of the earliest deep discounts we've even seen for the holidays. Additionally, a percentage of retailers concentrated on pushing folks to their Websites with various online only sales which most likely influenced Black Friday performance as well." Martin continued: "That being said, we still saw a record amount of money spent on Friday so it's hard to say Black Friday wasn't a success, it's just not the success we saw in the mid 2000's when the day really became a phenomenon with the American public. And if retailers continue the pattern of early sales and online promotions, this could be the new norm in Black Friday performance." While sales were essentially flat, ShopperTrak reports total U.S. foot traffic increased 2.2 percent on Black Friday which points to a shopper driven by various sales and promotions. Read the full release here . Meanwhile, online shopping seems to be doing exceptionally well this year. EBay and PayPal report that sales doubled on Black Friday (see TechCrunch ). And Bloomberg is reporting that a big day today, Cyber Monday, could push online sales for Thanksgiving weekend over $1 billion for the first time .

  • Retail Sales Trend Lines, from Tim Duy

    The Commerce Department announced yesterday that retail sales had improved 1.2% in October. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke stated that the increase was higher than anticipated, and it was widely reported as a good sign for holiday shopping . University of Oregon economist Tim Duy took a look at the data, and shares the following graphs: And since auto sales were a major driver of the October numbers, here's a look at the data excluding them: Duy's conclusion: In general, the retail sales report was good news, as it is another indicator that drives a stake into the heart of the double-dip story. But keep in mind that the data continues to illustrate the good cop, bad cop conflict in the economy. Policymakers should be concerned about the distance between new trends and old, lest they risk falling into the trap of diminished expectations, believing that 9% unemployment should be the new normal. Market participants, however, may simply be content with confirmation that the foundation for ongoing corporate revenue growth remains secure. Read Duy's Quick Note on Retail Sales at Economist's View, here.

  • Brookings Report Shows Suburbs Were Key to Poverty Growth Last Decade

    The last decade was a bad one for poverty in America, according to a new report from the Brookings Institution . After the economic growth of the 1990s brought "near record lows in the poverty rate and considerable declines in the number of high-poverty neighborhoods", the early 2000s saw those numbers shoot back up. And there is some data that shows that suburbs led that growth. Brookings researchers Elizabeth Kneebone and Emily Garr write: In 2000, the greatest share of the poor lived in the primary cities of the country’s largest metro areas. These cities were home to almost 400,000 more poor than their suburbs, and the balance of the poor population was more likely to live in non-metropolitan communities than small metro areas. However, growth rates well above average in the suburban and small metro area poor populations have re-drawn the map over the course of the decade. Most notably, by 2008 a plurality of the nation’s poor lived in large metropolitan suburbs. Between 2000 and 2008, the number of these suburban poor increased by 25 percent—10 points above the national average and close to 5 times the growth rate for the poor in primary cities. Overall, suburbs gained more than 2.5 million poor individuals, accounting for almost half of the total increase in the nation’s poor population since 2000. Smaller metro areas saw their poor population increase almost 20 percent, a gain of 1.3 million poor over the eight-year period. At the same time, non-metro area and primary city poor populations also grew, but at much slower paces of 12.1 and 5.6 percent—or 842,000 and 582,000 people—respectively. As a result, by 2008 suburbs had overtaken primary cities as home to the largest share of the nation’s poor (almost one-third), and small metro areas housed more poor people than non-metro areas. Here's a look at the increase in the poverty rate in suburbs compared to other types of communities: And here's a look at the growth in the poverty rate for suburbs in the four major regions of the country: Read The Suburbanization of Poverty here .