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  • The Decline of the Personal Savings Rate

    The personal savings rate in the US, (measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ), has dropped to 3.1%. Edward Harrison , who has been following the personal savings rate over the last couple of years at Credit Writedowns , believes that there is a "strong correlation" between asset prices and savings rate. He argues that when asset prices go up, the savings rate goes down. And since asset prices have "skyrocketed," Harrison is not surprised by the drop in the savings rate. But, he says his is one of three possible explanations for the savings rate dropping from last spring's high of 6.4%: 1) Asset prices are increasing. The wealth effect and the decrease in debt-related stress associated with this increase has allowed consumers to resume their prior consumption patterns. This is where I have focused in the past. 2) Debt-related stress is still acute, particularly because of continued high rates of unemployment. This has caused consumers to draw down savings in order meet basic material needs. 3) A surge in strategic defaults has left consumers with more money to spend and is boosting retail sales. Read Harrison's detailed analysis of the Three potential explanations for the continued fall in US savings rate here .
  • 'Economic Impact of Increased Savings' from McKinsey Quarterly

    American consumers took on debt at a rapid rate to start the 21st Century. Take a look at this chart of houshold debt from the McKinsey Quarterly : So when the bubble burst, what happened? Americans stopped borrowing and started saving. Look at the fall in borrowing--starting just before the global economic crisis hit last September: The charts are from a new article by Charles Atkins and Susan Lund , consultants for McKinsey. In The Economic Impact of Increased US Savings , they write that the current trends could be part of a dangerous cycle: How far these trends will go is a critical economic uncertainty in the months ahead. The economic impact of today’s deleveraging will depend on how it unfolds—through income growth, higher savings, or some combination of the two. If incomes stagnated, for example, households could deleverage only by saving more. Every percentage point reduction in the debt-to-income ratio would require nearly a one percentage point increase in the savings rate. The US personal savings rate reached 5 percent in January, 2009. If this level prevailed and incomes didn’t grow, this would reduce the household debt-to-income ratio by five percentage points—which still wouldn’t be enough to restore the levels of indebtedness prevailing in 2000, before borrowing started to accelerate. But if incomes rose, households could both reduce their debt burden significantly over time and continue to consume. If US incomes grew by 2 percent a year, for instance, households could reduce their debt-to-income ratio by as much as they would in the scenario above—but with a personal savings rate of only 2.3 percent. Read the full article here .