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  • Infographic: Japan's Debt

    If you want to look tall, stand next to a bunch of short people. If you want your debt-to-GDP ratio to look small, stand next to....Japan? Yes. Forget Greece, Italy, and the other Euro nations for just a moment. Glassman Wealth Services , has an infographic that shows why there is some reason to worry about Japan: Designed by elefint designs (via infogra.ph )
  • Feldstein on Europe's Reluctance to Let Greece Default

    Martin Feldstein calls Greece's mix of overwhelming government debt and a free-falling economy an "otherwise impossible situation." Greece will default, as Feldstein argues that is the only way out. But after it defaults, will it leave the euro zone? Having its own currency just might open more options. Feldstein argues there are two reasons that the key influencers in the Euro zone (Germany and France) do not want Greece to leave. At least not just yet. From Project Syndicate : First, the banks and other financial institutions in Germany and France have large exposures to Greek government debt, both directly and through the credit that they have extended to Greek and other eurozone banks. Postponing a default gives the French and German financial institutions time to build up their capital, reduce their exposure to Greek banks by not renewing credit when loans come due, and sell Greek bonds to the European Central Bank. The second, and more important, reason for the Franco-German struggle to postpone a Greek default is the risk that a Greek default would induce sovereign defaults in other countries and runs on other banking systems, particularly in Spain and Italy. This risk was highlighted by the recent downgrade of Italy’s credit rating by Standard & Poor’s. A default by either of those large countries would have disastrous implications for the banks and other financial institutions in France and Germany. The European Financial Stability Fund is large enough to cover Greece’s financing needs but not large enough to finance Italy and Spain if they lose access to private markets. So European politicians hope that by showing that even Greece can avoid default, private markets will gain enough confidence in the viability of Italy and Spain to continue lending to their governments at reasonable rates and financing their banks. Read Europe’s High-Risk Gamble here .
  • State Governments' Lasting Struggle for Revenue

    Jeremy Gerst and Daniel Wilson , both economists at the San Francisco Fed , have just published an Economic Letter in which they describe the struggles of state governments to make ends meet. And they share two telling graphs. First, a look at what happened to revenue when real GDP dropped: And then a look at how spending changed (or rather, didn't) as revenue dropped: The picture, Gerst and Wilson write, is not bound to look any prettier for some time: All indications are that states will be struggling to move their budgets toward balance for quite some time. Recovery of state finances historically lags recovery of the national economy. Forecasters expect the national economy to recover gradually (see Weidner and Williams 2010). Thus, it will take quite a while before states see considerable improvement in their fiscal health. Indeed, estimates from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities show significant state budget gaps persisting through at least 2012. And a recent Rockefeller Institute report noted that most states are uncertain when revenue will return to prerecession levels, indicating the problem could continue well beyond 2012 (see Boyd and Dadayan 2010). In many respects, fiscal conditions are likely to get worse before they get better. Federal stimulus plan grants to state governments have helped states close budget gaps. However, federal stimulus funds are set to diminish in 2011 and all but disappear in 2012, leaving states to deal with their budget gaps without this federal support. Another factor that could worsen state budget problems is the depletion of rainy-day funds. At this point, even states that had rainy-day funds going into the recession have fully tapped them. Finally, some states have used accounting tricks to in effect kick the fiscal adjustment can down the road. Now these have largely been exhausted and the end of the road is in sight. Read Fiscal Crises of the States: Causes and Consequences here .
  • Economist Mom: National Debt As A Symptom, Rather Than THE Problem

    Diane Lim Rogers , Chief Economist for the Concord Coalition, was interviewed for this very interesting Planet Money piece on US citizens donating money to reduce the federal deficit. In the interview, she said that it would be "economically stupid," for all taxpayers to rally together and pay off the debt. She also said it would be "unwise," as current citizens would be taking on a huge, unfair burden. Rogers explains her comments at her Economist Mom column: But let’s assume we could do it without destroying our nation; let’s assume we could go “poof” and wipe the debt slate clean. What would paying off the debt entirely today accomplish in terms of fiscal sustainability? Not nearly as much as it would seem. Unfortunately, reaching even zero debt does not eliminate what’s “unsustainable” about our fiscal outlook. We would start with a clean slate, but right away our debt would start accumulating again–because the dynamics of the fiscal outlook would still be all wrong: promised entitlement benefits would still be growing too fast for the economy and revenues to keep up. While without any debt we’d eliminate about $200 billion in net interest this year, the rest of mandatory spending alone–without counting any discretionary spending–would still use up nearly all of our revenue. So even having “zeroed out the debt clock” we would still have a large deficit right away this year, immediately starting the debt clock back up again, and that new debt would be immediately projected to keep growing faster than GDP–the definition of an “unsustainable” fiscal outlook. So even a magical zero debt to GDP situation is not “sustainable” if the unsustainable paths in the fiscal outlook are not changed. Conversely, a high debt to GDP situation, while not ideal (because of the interest burden), might still be “sustainable” if the economy is on a growth path that manages to keep pace with the gap between spending (including interest) and revenues. That’s a big “if” though. Which is why when I said that there’s no such thing as an unsustainable level of debt to GDP (at any one particular point in time) I didn’t mean to imply that a high level of debt to GDP couldn’t be consistent with a completely unsustainable path of debt to GDP over time. What I’m trying to say is what defines that unsustainability isn’t where we are right now but what we’re doing (or not) to change where we’reheaded. Read Why eliminating the national debt alone would not fix America's fiscal woes here .
  • Lessons for the US from Europe's Debt Crisis

    EU leaders are taking what Business Week calls "unprecedented" measures --spending $962 Trillion in the process--to keep sovereign debt in Euro zone countries from inflicting more damage to the European economy. So there is little doubt they have taken the Greek crisis seriously. But there remain a wide range of opinion among Europe's citizens on how much they and their nations should be on the hook for fixing other nations' debt issues. Economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff argue that the Greek crisis provides valuable lessons for people outside of Europe. In the Washington Post , they outline 5 Myths about the European debt crisis : 1. This is a new type of crisis. 2. Small economies such as Greece can't launch major financial turmoil. 3. Fiscal austerity will solve Europe's debt difficulties. 4. The euro is to blame for Greece's financial woes. 5. It can't happen here. Read their breakdown of these myths here .
  • Greece: Bailout, Protests Raise Questions About EU

    Protesters clashed with riot police yesterday in Greece, and three people were reportedly killed in a bank fire in Athens. The protests over the Greek government's acceptance of the austerity measures required as a condition of an EU/IMF bailout of the Greek economy, have grown larger each day. The whole Greek episode has brought many to consider the very nature of the Eurozone. Evan Newmark , Mean Street columnist for the Wall Street Journal , argued yesterday that Greece and the EU would be better off if they parted ways and Greece reinstated the drachma. Newmark made the comments as part of this panel discussion: For a bit of perspective, Ernst Weizacker, Co-chair for the UN Panel Sustainable Resource Management, reminds us that Greece makes up a very small percentage of the EU economy. That leads him to conclude that talks of the Greek "contagion" are overblown: Watch the complete Weizacker interview at Big Think, here .
  • Visual Economics: Debt to GDP

    Visual Economics is a good site for graphics and maps that neatly synthesize economic data. Here, for example, is their map showing national debt as a percentage of GDP. Just as with any household or business, red is bad, black is good. Take a look :