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  • Happy Birthday to the $20 Bill

    The new twenty dollar bill turns 10 years old today. When the twenty was updated, it represented a significant shift in how US currency looks and feels. Now the one hundred dollar bill is poised to follow the twenty's lead, by adding new color and material to make it more difficult to forge. Mark Garrison discussed the importance of the twenty's pioneering look on the Marketplace Tech Report:
  • When it Comes to Publicly Held U.S. Currency, It's All About the Benjamins

    There are a lot of U.S. bills in circulation. $1.2 trillion worth. And most of them, as James Hamilton points out at Econbrowser , are of the $100 variety. Benjamin Franklin adorns 75% of all the bills in public circulation. That may be hard to believe for those of us who don't regularly see 100-dollar bills being exchanged. But there is a reason for that. Hamilton: A recent paper by Federal Reserve economist Ruth Judson uses a variety of methods to infer that many of those $100 bills are being held outside the United States, where U.S. currency is sometimes regarded as a safer store of value than other local options. This is a long-standing trend that seems to have accelerated during the financial crisis. Judson estimates that about half of the growth since 1988 in currency held by the public has ended up outside the United States. That growth represents one important benefit that the U.S. has received from having a currency that is regarded as a safe and stable store of value. In effect, the growth in foreign-held dollars has meant that the U.S. government has been able to buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods and services without ever needing to tax its own citizens or borrow in the form of interest-bearing Treasury securities. Which is a great deal, as long as those foreign holders don't change their minds and try to dump that currency back on us. Read Who is holding all those U.S. dollars? here .
  • Economic Policy Lessons From the Byzantine Empire

    At The Guardian , Peter Frankopan laments the fact that politicians in Europe are happy to use the term "Byzantine" but seem to know little about Byzantium, the empire that ruled much of Southern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East for over 1000 years after the fall of Rome. Frankopan, director of Oxcrord Centre for Byzantine Research, argues there are useful lessons for today's leaders, in both Byzantine successes and failures. There was no question that different parts of the empire could have different rules or different taxation policies: for the state to function with a single currency, there had to be fiscal, economic and political union; taxes had to be paid out from the periphery to the centre; and it was understood that resources had to be diverted from rich regions to those that were less well blessed – even if not everyone was happy about it. Freedom, grumbled one author in the 11th century, meant freedom from taxes. If Eurocrats could learn from the structure of the empire, then so too could they benefit from looking at how it dealt with a chronic recession, brought on by the same deadly combination that has crippled western economies today. In the 1070s, government revenues collapsed, while expenditure continued to rise on essential services (such as the military); these were made worse by a chronic liquidity crisis. So bad did the situation become that the doors of the treasury were flung open: there was no point locking them, wrote one contemporary, because there was nothing there to steal. Those responsible for the crisis were shown no mercy. The Herman Van Rompuy of the time, a eunuch named Nikephoritzes, was lambasted by an angry population faced with price rises and a fall in the standard of living, and was eventually tortured to death. Widespread dissatisfaction led to others being unceremoniously removed from position, often forced to become monks, presumably so they could pray for forgiveness for their sins. The crisis even gave rise to a Nigel Farage figure, whose arguments about why things had gone wrong sounded "so persuasive", according to one contemporary, that people "united in giving him precedence" and welcomed him everywhere with applause. He was a breath of fresh air at a time when the old guard were paralysed by inaction and by a dire shortage of good ideas. His message, that the current crop of leaders was useless, was hard to argue with. Read the full post here .
  • Draghi: 'Euro area is much, much stronger than people acknowledge'

    Mario Draghi has had a challenging eight months as president of the European Central Bank . But to hear him speak yesterday from the Global Investment Conference in London one would think him quite the optimist. Draghi laid out the case for the euro in spite of all the drag on the currency from debt-ridden nations in the euro zone. If you compare today the euro area member states with six months ago, you will see that the world is entirely different today, and for the better. And this progress has taken different shapes. At national level, because of course, while I was saying, while I was glorifying the merits of the euro, you were thinking “but that’s an average!”, and “in fact countries diverge so much within the euro area, that averages are not representative any longer, when the variance is so big”. But I would say that over the last six months, this average, well the variances tend to decrease and countries tend to converge much more than they have done in many years - both at national level, in countries like Portugal, Ireland and countries that are not in the programme, like Spain and Italy. The progress in undertaking deficit control, structural reforms has been remarkable. And they will have to continue to do so. But the pace has been set and all the signals that we get is that they don’t relent, stop reforming themselves. It’s a complex process because for many years, very little was done – I will come to this in a moment. But a lot of progress has been done at supranational level. That’s why I always say that the last summit was a real success. The last summit was a real success because for the first time in many years, all the leaders of the 27 countries of Europe, including UK etc., said that the only way out of this present crisis is to have more Europe, not less Europe. A Europe that is founded on four building blocks: a fiscal union, a financial union, an economic union and a political union. These blocks, in two words – we can continue discussing this later – mean that much more of what is national sovereignty is going to be exercised at supranational level, that common fiscal rules will bind government actions on the fiscal side. Read the full speech here .
  • James Surowiecki's 'Brief History of Money'

    We have always appreciated the clarity and brevity that James Surowiecki has brought to complicated business and economics issues on The New Yorker's Financial Page. He spilled a lot more ink (or at least text) in his recent article on the history of money. In Spectrum magazine, Surowiecki charts the use of money from the 7th century B.C.E kingdom of Lydia, through Kublai Khan's introduction of paper money, up to online trade today. Here is an excerpt: By the 12th century, even as the Chinese were experimenting with paper currency, Europeans began to embrace a new view of money: Instead of being something to hoard or spend, money became something to invest, to be put to work in order to make more money. This idea came with a renewed interest in commerce. Trade fairs sprang up across Europe, frequented by a community of merchants who had begun to do business across the continent. This period also saw the emergence of a banking industry in the city‑states of Italy. These new institutions introduced a host of financial innovations that we still use today, including municipal bonds and insurance. The banks fostered the use of credit and debt, which became ever more central to the economy as kings borrowed to finance their military adventures and merchants borrowed to fund their long-range trades. The invention of the bill of exchange, which laid the groundwork for the emergence of paper money in the West, also occurred during this period. The bill of exchange was a sort of precursor to the traveler’s check: a document representing a quantity of gold that could be exchanged for the real thing in a different city. Traveling merchants liked the bills because they could be carried around with far less risk (and exertion) than the precious metal. By the 16th century in Europe, many of the ideas about money that shape our thinking today were in place. Still, money remained a physical thing—that thing being a piece of gold or silver. A gold coin wasn’t a symbol of value; it was an embodiment of it, because everyone believed that the gold had intrinsic worth. Likewise, the amount of money in the economy was still a function of how much gold and silver was available. The rulers of Spain and Portugal didn’t quite appreciate the limits of this system, however, which led them to plunder their New World colonies and accumulate vast hoards of precious metals, which in turn triggered periods of rampant inflation and enormous tumult in the European economy. Read the full article here . And after you've read the article, take a look at the timeline that Spectrum has put together. Here's a snapshot: Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz for calling our attention to this article.
  • Daniel Altman's Gold Standard Primer

    Ron Paul was not very successful in his effort to win the Republican nomination for president, so it seems there is not much of a chance that the US will return to the gold standard anytime soon. And yet discussion of the gold standard still seems in the air. Enough so that Big Think 's Chief Economist Daniel Altman has decided to break down some of the myths of the gold standard.
  • Marketplace Whiteboard: The Problem with Spain

    Paddy Hirsch tells us that Spain is causing big problems because, to put it simply, Spain is so big. At least compared to dear old Ireland. And to help us get our heads around the damage that Spain's debt crisis could cause fellow EU nations (and the global economy, for that matter), Hirsch wants us to think of Spain as a homeowner:
  • Marketplace Whiteboard: Cash, Hearts, and the Danger of Bank Runs

    In his effort to explain why bank runs are so bad, Paddy Hirsch wants us to think about banks as hearts. No, not banks having hearts. Rather, banks having responsibility to a lot of people and institutions, just as a heart has responsibility for getting blood to all the organs. Take a look at the latest Marketplace Whiteboard :
  • Eichengreen on the Dollar's Special Status

    Writing in the May/June issue of The American Interest , Barry Eichengreen argues that while the role of the dollar on the global economic stage is likely to diminish somewhat, it will be some time before we see any significant drop in the greenback's importance. But he uses recent currency maneuverings in China and Japan to outline some of the benefits we in the US receive from the dollar being the global currency. With international business being conducted in dollars, U.S. banks aren't burdened with a lot of the exchange rate machinations that banks elsewhere deal with. And the U.S. Treasury costs of borrowing are lessened by the stability that the dollar offers. And on the political front, Eichengreen points to " America’s unique ability to provide dollars in unlimited quantities, but also to withhold them, provides U.S. foreign policymakers with another pressure point to push." But Eichengreen points out that there are some downsides to the dollar being the global currency. By U.S. Treasury estimates, China holds some $1.1 trillion in U.S. government bonds. Total official foreign holdings exceed $3.2 trillion, nearly a third of the $10 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt held by the public. It is worth noting that these official figures are almost certainly underestimates. In addition to purchases in the United States, which are tracked by the U.S. Treasury, governments and central banks can purchase U.S. Treasury bonds through intermediaries in foreign centers like London, where they are harder to detect. Foreign central banks also hold the securities of government-sponsored agencies like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, although they have trimmed those holdings since the subprime crisis. If by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds foreign central banks can lower U.S. interest rates by as much as a full percentage point, then they could, by curtailing those purchases, presumably raise U.S. rates by a corresponding amount. The U.S. housing market and construction sector would feel the pain. This would be a not-so-subtle way for China to make known its displeasure with U.S. policy toward North Korea or Iran, or with a U.S. Treasury decision to label China a currency manipulator. The benefits that America derives from Chinese purchases of U.S. debt are a factor in the State Department’s reluctance to push Beijing harder on human rights issues and the Treasury Department’s reluctance to push it harder on the exchange rate issue. In principle, China could go further and sell its previous purchases. Given the magnitude of its holdings, this would cause bond prices to crater and U.S. interest rates to spike. Smaller bond market shocks than that have caused financial mayhem in the United States. Consider the 1.5 percent rise in thirty-year Treasury yields that occurred in 1994 when Japanese investors faced with a financial crisis at home sold off their U.S. holdings. The result was serious losses and fears of insolvency of major financial companies and hedge funds. If the Chinese wished to wreak havoc in U.S. financial markets, this would be the way. The deterrent to China’s doing so is that it might also be wreaking havoc in its own markets. When institutional investors in Japan sold off some of their U.S. treasuries in 1994, driving down the price, they suffered losses on their remaining holdings. This heightened concern about the solvency of not just U.S. financial firms but Japanese financial institutions as well. China would face an analogous problem. Eichengreen goes on to outline reasons such behavior would create problems for China's economy, so no need to get alarmist. The article as a whole raises a series of interesting discussion points on the impact of the dollar's global status on the U.S. economy and business. Read The Once and Future Dollar here . (Hat tip, Greg Mankiw )
  • It's All About the Washingtons, Until It's Not: Planet Money on the Dollar Coin

    The Planet Money team wants us to spend more time thinking about the money in our pockets. Not the amount, but rather the type of money in our pockets. And not what that money represents, but the actual dollars and coins. The paper and the metal. If legislation currently moving through Congress passes, you will have to say goodbye to a lot of George Washingtons, Take a listen to the latest Planet Money podcast, in which they lay out the battle between the dollar coin and the dollar bill in some creative ways (including getting dollar-coin proponent Sen. Tom Harkin to discuss the virtues of the coin at a vending machine):
  • BCG's Hal Sirkin on the Rise and Recovery of Manufacturing in the US

    Add Boston Consulting Group's Hal Sirkin to the list of industry experts who believe that reports of the death of US manufacturing have been, as Twain might put it, "an exaggeration." With the decline of the dollar and the rise of wages in China, "It's now becoming more effective to produce in the U.S. than it is to produce in a lot of different countries," says Sirkin. Sirkin recently discussed the state of manufacturing in the US with the Knowledge@Wharton editor in chief Mukul Pandya .
  • Switzerland and Japan Take Top 4 Spots on World's Most Expensive Cities List

    Zurich has supplanted Tokyo as the most expensive city in the world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit . The struggles in the EU seem to have pushed already pricey Swiss cities Zurich and Geneva into the top three most expensive cities, as the Swiss Franc keeps getting more and more valuable. From the EIU's Worldwide Cost of Living 2012 report: Both Japan and Switzerland have seen strong currency movements over the last few years which have made them relatively more expensive. This has become especially true of Switzerland in the last year, where investors looking for a haven currency outside the beleaguered Eurozone have invested heavily in the Swiss Franc, prompting an unprecedented move by the Swiss government to peg the Swiss Franc to the Euro to keep the currency competitive. Although Switzerland has long featured in, or around, the world’s most expensive cities, the strong swing in currency headwinds is responsible for Zurich’s current elevated position. In local terms the opposite has been true, with relatively cheaper imports and a stable economy keeping local price inflation low. This mirrors a similar situation in Japan over recent years which resulted in Tokyo and Osaka traditionally holding the unenviable title of being the world’s most expensive cities. Local inflation in mature markets always has far less influence on the relative cost of living than the currency movements of the countries in question. This also explains the recent presence of Australian cities like Sydney and Melbourne in the ten most expensive locations as last year saw the Australian dollar pass parity with the US dollar from holding half that value a decade ago. New Yorkers with empty pockets may be surprised to learn that their city isn't near the top of the list. In fact, no American city cracks the top ten this year. Here are the ten most expensive cities: Read the EIU's release here .
  • WSJ Documentary on European Economic Crisis

    Europe and the euro start 2012 in the spotlight, as economists around the globe watch to see how policymakers fight what appears to be an oncoming recession. Count the Wall Street Journal 's top editors and reporters among those who see Europe struggling throughout the year. The Journal's multimedia team has put together an impressive--if at times rather gloomy--documentary titled Europe on the Brink . The doc moves from the establishment of the EU and what some WSJ editors see as basic structural flaws to the EU economy, to the beginning of the debt crisis, and through to today's challenges.
  • Marketplace Morning Report: Gold's Dropping Value

    The value of gold has dropped more than 400 dollars per ounce since an August 2011 high of $1900, Marketplace reports. This appears to be the result of growing confidence in the US economy, and the dollar gaining strength. Marketplace's Steve Chiotakis and Stephen Beard discussed the iconic metal's drop in this report .
  • Marketplace Whiteboard: Why the EU Wants Dollars

    Last week the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank announced a plan in which they, along with other key central banks, will coordinate efforts to fight the global credit crunch . In short, the Fed will make it easier for the ECB to get dollars. Why do they want dollars, when they have their own currency? Paddy Hirsch takes to the Marketplace Whiteboard to explain: Why does the EU want U.S. dollars? from Marketplace on Vimeo .