The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Tim Duy points out that Ben Bernanke and friends will be meeting with a far more positive "economic backdrop" than they have had for a long time. But for all the relatively good economic news there is, uncertainty remains. Duy believes that the FOMC should continue to anticipate slow recovery, and he points to limited consumer credit as a primary reason: Given the steady anecdotal buzz surrounding the deterioration of the commercial real estate market, it is difficult to expect a rapid reversal of these trends. In short, if you think credit markets are still under stress, as the Fed certainly does, and are worried about the availability of credit to support future spending, also among Fed concerns, then shifting rhetorically to signal a tighter policy stance irrational. Moreover, it would seem inconsistent with plans to continue expanding the balance sheet via purchases of mortgage backed securities and TALF assets. So, it seems Duy is telling us not to expect a drastic change in Fed policy until we see a major shift in consumer credit and unemployment. Read Even With Growth, A Long, Hard Road here .