Browse by Tags

KnowNOW!

Global Economic Watch

Syndication

Recent Posts

Tags

Archives

  • The Earth's Economic Center of Gravity is Shifting: McKinsey Global Institute Report on Rising Cities and Consumer Class Growth in Emerging Markets

    Global economic growth over the next decade will be driven largely by growing cities in emerging economies, according to a fascinating new report from the McKinsey Global Institute , titled Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class . Of the 600 cities that the report cites as the most important drivers of the global economy, 440 are in emerging economies. And while McKinsey Global projects the "City 600" will account for 65% of global growth by 2025--rising some $30 trillion over that span--the 440 cities in emerging economies will account for nearly half of all global growth on their own. Also, the report projects that we will see 1 billion new consumers from these 440 cities. McKinsey Global calls this development "the most significant shift in the earth’s economic center of gravity in history." From the report: The incomes of these new consuming classes are rising even faster than the number of individuals in the consuming classes. This means that many products and services are hitting take-off points at which their consumption rises swiftly and steeply. By 2025, urban consumers are likely to inject around $20 trillion a year in additional spending into the world economy. Catering to the burgeoning urban consumer classes will also require a boom in the construction of buildings and infrastructure. We estimate that cities will need annual physical capital investment to more than double from nearly $10 trillion today to more than $20 trillion by 2025, the lion’s share of which will be in the emerging world. This huge sum of consumption and investment could inject more than $30 trillion of annual spending into the world economy by 2025—a powerful and welcome boost to global economic growth. But there will be challenges, too. Rapidly urbanizing emerging economies and their increasingly wealthy consumers are already driving strong demand for the world’s natural and capital resources. The global investment rate and resource prices have jumped and could rise further. Cities can be part of the solution to such stresses, as concentrated population centers can be more productive in their resource use than areas that are more sparsely populated. But if cities fail to invest in a way that keeps abreast of the rising needs of their growing populations, they may lock in inefficient, costly practices that will become constraints to sustained growth later on. How countries and cities meet this rising urban demand therefore matters a great deal. Beyond the direct impact of the investment, their choices will have broad effects on global demand for resources, capital investment, and labor market outcomes. Read the full report here . You can also explore the City 600 and the economic of cities globally with a new interactive map from the McKinsey Global Institute. Click here .
  • Enrico Moretti's 'New Geography of Jobs'

    Looks like we have another book for the beach (if the rain stops on the East Coast, that is). Berkeley economist Enrico Moretti 's The New Geography of Jobs lays out the challenge for most communities in America. The best trained workers tend to move away from home by the time they are thirty to those places where the economy is vibrant and business is innovative. Moretti says that means other communities need to figure out how to create a healthier "economic ecosystem" to develop environments that encourage innovation. Moretti spoke with Marketplace 's Kai Ryssdal about geography and jobs last week:
  • Switzerland and Japan Take Top 4 Spots on World's Most Expensive Cities List

    Zurich has supplanted Tokyo as the most expensive city in the world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit . The struggles in the EU seem to have pushed already pricey Swiss cities Zurich and Geneva into the top three most expensive cities, as the Swiss Franc keeps getting more and more valuable. From the EIU's Worldwide Cost of Living 2012 report: Both Japan and Switzerland have seen strong currency movements over the last few years which have made them relatively more expensive. This has become especially true of Switzerland in the last year, where investors looking for a haven currency outside the beleaguered Eurozone have invested heavily in the Swiss Franc, prompting an unprecedented move by the Swiss government to peg the Swiss Franc to the Euro to keep the currency competitive. Although Switzerland has long featured in, or around, the world’s most expensive cities, the strong swing in currency headwinds is responsible for Zurich’s current elevated position. In local terms the opposite has been true, with relatively cheaper imports and a stable economy keeping local price inflation low. This mirrors a similar situation in Japan over recent years which resulted in Tokyo and Osaka traditionally holding the unenviable title of being the world’s most expensive cities. Local inflation in mature markets always has far less influence on the relative cost of living than the currency movements of the countries in question. This also explains the recent presence of Australian cities like Sydney and Melbourne in the ten most expensive locations as last year saw the Australian dollar pass parity with the US dollar from holding half that value a decade ago. New Yorkers with empty pockets may be surprised to learn that their city isn't near the top of the list. In fact, no American city cracks the top ten this year. Here are the ten most expensive cities: Read the EIU's release here .
  • The Rise of Municipal Bonds

    It seems that while a lot of us weren't paying close attention, many US cities provided a better return for investors in 2011 than we were anticipating. Municipal bonds are rising in price, according to the Wall Street Journal 's Liam Denning . And while there is still a fair bit of risk, especially in bond tied to real estate related projects, the fear that there were going to be massive defaults in the last year did not turn out to be true. The potential for higher yields, it seems, drove investors to the muni bond market. Those yields, Denning tells Mean Street host Evan Newmark , are not likely to remain so high:
  • Brookings Global MetroMonitor: Metro Areas Continue to Drive Growth Worldwide, But Fastest Growth is in Emerging Economies

    The Brookings Institution 's Global MetroMonitor for 2011 paints a picture of shifting strength from cities in the developed nations to Asia and South America. Not that the metro areas of the US and Western Europe are not still vital drivers of the global economy, but the growth was elsewhere in between 2010 and 2011. Note where much of the blue is on this map: The map is a helpful supplement to the report (click here to access the interactive map). As it shows, most of the strongest performing metro areas--90%, in fact--are outside of the US and Western Europe, while almost all of the weakest are in Japan, the US, and Western Europe. Alan Berube , director of research for the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program and one of the authors of the report, notes some of the key takeaways from the Global MetroMonitor in this video: Read the full report here .
  • Mathematical Properties of Cities

    At first listen, Physicist Geoffrey West comes across as a city hater. He argues that urbanization has brought about all of the major problems facing the world today. But then, West also thinks that cities hold the keys to fixing global problems. He says they are "vacuum cleaners" sucking up all the creative thinkers and innovators and putting them in a place where they can feed off of the ideas of other creative thinkers and innovators. In a recent talk at TedGlobal in Edinburgh, West shared a remarkable discovery about cities that may help us understand how they tick. West takes a mathematical approach to understanding cities, and he says there are basic mathematical laws that make human behavior in urban settings highly predictable. And it works for understanding corporations as well. Here is the speech:
  • Helsinki Tops Monocle's 2011 Most Liveable City Index

    We woke up this morning to find out that Monocle has named Helsinki the winning city in its most liveable city index for 2011 . Being in Helsinki at the moment, this made perfect sense. As Finland spent the latter half of the 21st Century working to make the transition from a rural nation with an economy driven by timber and manufacturing to a more dynamic economy that placed value in innovation and design, Helsinki grew to become an important urban center. Today, Helsinki is a vibrant, highly efficient city. And Monocle's index ranking reflects the cultural wealth of the place, but it is also a result of the growth of small businesses, many that fall within the city's core design-driven creative economy. In an interview with Monocle, Helsinki's mayor, Jussi Pajunen , talks about how his country is building and growing at a time when others are cutting back. Take a listen, here . Also, take a look at Monocle's short video about Helsinki and why it was picked as the most liveable city. Click here .
  • Paul Romer's Charter City Idea Closer to Becoming a Reality

    Two years ago, we highlighted a talk by Paul Romer in which he put forward the idea of creating new cities that would be sustainable, economic powerhouses. Now, Romer says this idea is coming closer to becoming a reality. In this recent Ted Talk , Romer tells of plans to create a new city in Honduras:
  • Leonhardt Tackles the Rent Vs Buy Decision Again

    For many Americans, deciding whether to buy a house or to rent is one of the most significant economic decisions they will make. For that reason, the buy versus rent debate provides an excellent case study for Econ teachers and students. David Leonhardt has spent a lot of ink on the subject for the New York Times over the last several years--he calls it a "near-annual habit". He writes an update about the rent-vs-buy dilemma in today's Times, and the most basic way to look at the numbers suggests that if one is planning on living in a home for five years or more, buying makes sense. But then one has to consider the specific market. Leonhardt: Within this basic framework, the numbers — specifically, something called rent ratios — are the next place to turn. A rent ratio is the sale price of a house divided by the annual cost of renting an equivalent house. When the ratio is below 15, most people should lean toward buying. To see why, look at the Atlanta area, where the average ratio is now about 13. Combined with today’s low interest rates, that ratio means that the typical monthly mortgage payment is several hundred dollars lower than the rent on an equivalent house. Over time, this difference helps make up for the other costs of owning, like closing costs and borrowing costs. And, yes, a mortgage costs money, despite the tax deduction. Only if home prices in Atlanta fall further and don’t recover for years would most buyers today have reason for regret. The other areas where the average ratio is below 15, according to Moody’s Analytics, include Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Detroit, Phoenix, Pittsburgh and Tampa, Fla. Read Rent or Buy, a Matter of Lifestyle here . And take a look at the this multimedia tool at the New York Times website. It allows you to enter specific home costs and rental costs to determine which option is better: Click here to use the multimedia tool .
  • McKinsey Global Institute Report on the Economic Power of Cities

    In case you haven't been paying attention, urban centers are getting more and more powerful. Over the next 15 years, the 600 largest cities will account for an estimated 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, according to a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute . Cities just about everywhere growing in size, GDP, and share of national GDP. But cities in developing economies are growing at a faster rate. From the report Urban world: Mapping the economic power of cities: Today, major urban areas in developed regions are, without doubt, economic giants. Half of global GDP in 2007 came from 380 cities in developed regions, with more than 20 percent of global GDP coming from 190 North American cities alone. The 220 largest cities in developing regions contributed another 10 percent. But by 2025, one-third of these developed market cities will no longer make the top 600; and one out of every 20 cities in emerging markets is likely to see their rank drop out of the top 600. By 2025, 136 new cities are expected to enter the top 600, all of them from the developing world and overwhelmingly—100 new cities—from China. Take a look at how the balance of urban power is shifting east: The lesson for global-minded businesses seems pretty clear. The action will be where the people are. And increasingly, the people are going to be in growing cities in emerging markets. To be sure, there is growth in US cities as well--just not at the same rate. Read the full report here . The McKinsey Quarterly has a useful interactive map of the world with city-by-city data drawn from the report. Click here to explore the map .
  • Ed Glaeser on Seattle's Success Story

    At the New York Times Economix blog, Harvard economist Edward Glaeser looks at Seattle as an interesting case study for how cities can grow in population, influence, and prosperity. Seattle's success, Glaeser writes, was "hardly foreordained." But it has escaped the fate of cities like St. Louis and Detroit. And Glaeser points to population density generally, and the density of en educated population specifically, as key factors: Dense, smart cities like Seattle succeed by attracting smart people who educate and employ one another. A person’s earnings rise by more than 7 percent as the share of people in his or her metropolitan area with a college degree increases by 10 percent, holding that person’s own level of education constant. Educated neighbors are particularly valuable in dense cities, where contact is more common. Skilled people have often chosen to come to already educated cities, and the share of Seattle adults with college degrees has risen to 56 percent from an already high 47 percent in 2000. Today, Seattle is one of the wealthier and most productive metropolitan areas in the United States. Per-capita personal income is 25 percent above the United States average. Per-capita productivity is 37 percent above the metropolitan average in the United States. That productivity explains why Seattle has grown so robustly over the last decade. Read How Seattle Transformed Itself here .
  • Liveability Ratings: Vancouver Remains on Top, Harare Holds Onto Last Place

    The Economists Intelligence Unit 's annual report on the relative liveability of cities is out, and Vancouver remains at the top of the list. Here's the top ten: From the report summary: Vancouver (Canada) remains at the top of the ranking, a position that can only have been cemented by the successful hosting of the 2010 winter Olympics and Paralympics, which provided a boost to the infrastructure and culture and environment categories. Only petty crime presents any difficulties for Vancouver, although this would be a typical shortfall of any such location. Violence is reportedly on an upward trend in the city, but the figures need to be put in context. A murder rate of 2.6 per 100,000 population recorded in 2009 is certainly above the Canadian average of 1.8. However, it remains on a par with the rate in innocuous locations such as New Zealand and Finland, and amounts to one-half of the US average of 5.4 murders, with New York reporting a rate of 6.3 homicides per 100,000 (both figures are for 2008). These advantages are shared with a number of other cities in the survey, and the variation between surveys is minimal. Just 2.3 percentage points separate the top ten cities, where the only change in the current survey is a slightly lower score for Vienna. As a result, Melbourne rises to become the second highest ranked city. This list tends to draw some heated conversations, especially in the US where the top ranking city, Pittsburgh, comes in at 29th overall. But it is important to note that what the list is designed to do is help companies better understand living conditions (including costs) for their workers in various locations. The concept of liveability is simple: it assesses which locations around the world provide the best or the worst living conditions. Assessing liveability has a broad range of uses, from benchmarking perceptions of development levels to assigning a hardship allowance as part of expatriate relocation packages. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s liveability rating quantifies the challenges that might be presented to an individual’s lifestyle in any given location, and allows for direct comparison between locations. You can access a summary of the report here .
  • Glaeser: 'Cities are the Economic Heartland of America'

    Harvard economist Edward Glaeser has a new book out, Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier and Happier . In the book, he challenges some of our conventional wisdom about cities. Or at least it challenges the political and media narratives about cities Healthier? Greener? Glaeser made the case for cities on The Daily Show . Note how he argues that cities are the "economic heartland America" (at 4:15): The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c Edward Glaeser www.thedailyshow.com Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog The Daily Show on Facebook Hat tip to Greg Mankiw .
  • Sustainable Models for Cities and Business in the 21st Century

    Harvard Business School professor Robert Eccles is interested in firms that are working on ways to retrofit and restart urban centers. In this excerpt from an interview with Big Think , Eccles discusses a company named Living PlanIT and its "radical business model": Watch the full interview here .
  • Richard Florida: 'Unleashing the Creative Economic Revolution'

    Richard Florida has been advising cities on how to appeal to the most innovative companies and employees for several years now. And his books, especially The Rise of the Creative Class , have sparked some interesting public debates on just what urban centers need to do to become innovation centers. Nearly a year ago we highlighted Florida's extensive article in The Atlantic in which he pushed the notion that the global economic crisis would "reshape" cities. He is still pushing this idea, and in a recent interview with Big Think , he discussed how a "new class of thinkers," is set to emerge: Watch the full interview here .