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  • COP June Report: The AIG Rescue

    The Congressional Oversight Panel 's June Report is now out, and in it the members of the panel are critical of the federal government's rescue of AIG in September, 2008. First, the panel argues that the Hank Paulson led Treasury Department did not do its due diligence in examining all the options it had before it committed $85 billion of taxpayer funds to keep the insurance giant from collapsing. But their bigger criticism comes with the actual rescue plan, which COP members say shifted the burden of AIG's failings from its creditors to all taxpayers and "distorted the marketplace by transforming highly risky derivative bets into fully guaranteed payment obligations." From the report: In the ordinary course of business, the costs of AIG‟s inability to meet its derivative obligations would have been borne entirely by AIG‟s shareholders and creditors under the well-established rules of bankruptcy. But rather than sharing the pain among AIG‟s creditors – an outcome that would have maintained the market discipline associated with credit risks – the government instead shifted those costs in full onto taxpayers out of a belief that demanding sacrifice from creditors would have destabilized the markets. The result was that the government backed up the entire derivatives market, as if these trades deserved the same taxpayer backstop as savings deposits and checking accounts. One consequence of this approach was that every counterparty received exactly the same deal: a complete rescue at taxpayer expense. Among the beneficiaries of this rescue were parties whom taxpayers might have been willing to support, such as pension funds for retired workers and individual insurance policy holders. But the across-the-board rescue also benefitted far less sympathetic players, such as sophisticated investors who had profited handsomely from playing a risky game and who had no reason to expect that they would be paid in full in the event of AIG‟s failure. Other beneficiaries included foreign banks that were dependent on contracts with AIG to maintain required regulatory capital reserves. Some of those same banks were also counterparties to other AIG CDSs. Here is COP chair Elizabeth Warren discussing the key findings of the June report: Read the full report here .
  • COP January Report: Time For a Clear Plan to Unwind TARP

    In December, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced that his department is extending the Troubled Assets Relief Program through October 3, 2010. So with less than ten months to go, part of the Treasury's responsibility will be to manage the end of TARP. But as the Congressional Oversight Panel's January report points out, the impact of TARP will be felt for long after October. And in their January report, the COP members call on Treasury to be more transparent in the department's effort to "unwind its stake in the financial markets": As Treasury enters the next stage of its administration of the TARP, it must learn from the mistakes it has made in the past – in particular, its failure to follow the money used to bail out large financial institutions. Because Treasury never required the institutions that received the first infusions of TARP funding to account for their use of these funds, taxpayers have not had a clear understanding of how their money has been used. As Treasury embarks on new programs, it must require that future recipients provide much greater disclosure of their use of TARP dollars. Finally, and perhaps most significantly, the TARP has raised the long-term challenge of how best to eliminate implicit guarantees. Belief remains widespread in the marketplace that, if the economy once again approaches the brink of collapse, the federal government will inevitably rush in to rescue financial institutions deemed too big to fail. This belief distorts prices, giving large financial institutions an advantage in raising capital that mid-sized and smaller banks – those not too big to fail – do not enjoy. These implicit guarantees also encourage major financial institutions to take unreasonable risks out of the belief that, no matter what happens, taxpayers will not allow their failure. So long as markets continue to believe that an implicit guarantee exists, moral hazard will continue to distort prices and endanger the nation’s economy, even after the last TARP program has been closed and the last TARP dollar has been repaid. Here is COP Chair Elizabeth Warren discussing the January report: Read the full report here .
  • Where the Returned TARP Money Goes

    There has been much discussion of the bank bailout funds this week--and some of it is good news for those who want financial insitutions to start giving back. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan want to repay their TARP money. And earlier this week Treasury Secretary Geithner says he expects $25 billion of the TARP funds to be repaid by the end of the year. So where does that money go? According to The Explainer -- Slate 's Christopher Beam --the money goes back into the program: If a bank wants to return its TARP money, it gets siphoned back—by wire, usually—into the original pool. In his testimony, Geithner said there's $110 billion left of the original $700 billion allocated by the TARP program. So once the expected $25 billion is returned, the remaining stash should reach $135 billion. The return of the money seems like a good thing all around. But The Explainer points out there is a downside: Of course, there are risks to letting the banks return money. One is that they'll need it again, which would create a public relations snafu. Then there's a systemic risk problem: If one bank appears stronger than others, the weaker ones might get hurt as investors yank their money, and short sellers bet against them. That's why Geithner is insisting on completing the stress test—which measures the banks' strength—before deciding which big companies get to return their money. Read The Explainer's full explanation here . And track the returned money at Slate's Tarp-O-Meter here .