With new regulations scheduled to hit, Europe's banks can expect lower returns, according to a new report from McKinsey & Company . Down the road, banks have an opportunity to make up the lost ground and build more sustainable practices, but first the hit on returns will look something like this: We estimate that without any mitigating action by banks or material changes in the economic and competitive environment, recent global rules, especially Basel III,1 and new regional and national regulations will help reduce retail banking’s average return on equity (ROE) in Europe’s four largest markets to 6 percent, from about 10—a 41 percent decline. The analysis, based on 2010 financial-year data, assumes that the cumulative regulatory impact expected over the next several years will be realized immediately. The effects vary across the four markets, but in all cases the outlook is grim (exhibit). In France, ROE will fall to 9.5 percent, from 13.5—a 29 percent decline driven by changes affecting mortgages, debit cards, and investments. In Germany, ROE will fall to 3.5 percent, from 6.6 (a drop of 47 percent); almost all retail products will be affected and many will become unprofitable. ROE in Italy’s retail banks starts from a lower base, 5.1 percent, but will fall further, to 3.1 percent. In the United Kingdom, returns will fall to 7 percent, from 13.6 percent. The impact here, 48 percent, is high because of extensive country-specific regulation. Access the full report here .
Filed under: mckinsey quarterly, Regulation, banks, Germany, bank regulation, Italy, McKinsey & Company, france, basel III, return on equity, United Kingdom, European banks. ROE