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  • Karl Smith: 'The speed limit on the economy is extremely high'

    At Modeled Behavior , Karl Smith shares two graphs. He asks us to look at what happened to the output gap after 1983: ...and then at the output gap for now: ..and he asks us to consider whether we could see a rapid recovery over the next year. Smith says it si possible. Not likely, but possible. Read How Fast, Recovery here . (Hat tip, Mark Thoma )
  • Jeffrey Sachs Calls on Nations to Pay Down Debt, AND Strengthen Public Policy Apparatus

    In his latest book, The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Prosperity , Jeffrey Sachs calls on Americans to recognize that we are connected to other countries' problems in direct ways, and that our behavior as consumers and citizens have a significant impact on global development. And he offers up his prescription for working toward a cure to the global economic crisis. He discussed the state of the global economy, and specifically the euro-zone debt crisis, in an interview with Parminder Bahra of the Wall Street Journal:
  • The IMF Growth Tracker Showing Moderating Growth Across Global Economy

    The IMF's World Economic Outlook shows a worrying global economic slowdown, led by Europe and the US. Among the many causes cited for slowing economic activity is the lack of demand in the private sector. The IMF's researchers suggest that they expected a quicker "handover from public to private demand." The tsunami and earthquake damage in Japan also bears some of the blame, as do disruption in oil supplies in North Africa this year. A lasting, and troubling factor is the lack of confidence on the part of consumers and businesses in developed economies of the West. The ripple effects of the dip in confidence are being felt around the globe. Note the impact on growth, as shown in the IMF's Growth Tracker : From the report: Worryingly, various consumer and business confidence indicators in advanced economies have retreated sharply, rather than strengthened as might have been expected in the presence of mostly temporary shocks that are unwinding. Accordingly, the IMF’s Growth Tracker (Figure 1.4, top panel) points to low growth over the near term. WEO projections assume that policymakers keep their commitments and the financial turmoil does not run beyond their control, allowing confidence to return as conditions stabilize. The return to stronger activity in advanced economies will then be delayed rather than derailed by the turmoil. Read the World Economic Outlook, and watch video of the IMF staff discussing their findings, here .
  • Roubini's Steps for Avoiding a Depression

    In the period before the global economic crisis of 2008, Nouriel Roubini was tagged "Dr. Doom" by many media outlets. The label was often dismissive, but it became more of a badge of honor after crisis hit. Roubini has remained vigilant about the vulnerability of the financial markets. His concern now is a global depression. In order to avoid depression, Roubini says there must me a multi-national approach. While austerity measures in many countries are necessary, he argues that other nations must postpone austerity in order to inject stimulus into the global economy. Writing at Project Syndicate , Roubini outlines several other steps: Second, while monetary policy has limited impact when the problems are excessive debt and insolvency rather than illiquidity, credit easing, rather than just quantitative easing, can be helpful. The European Central Bank should reverse its mistaken decision to hike interest rates. More monetary and credit easing is also required for the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. Inflation will soon be the last problem that central banks will fear, as renewed slack in goods, labor, real estate, and commodity markets feeds disinflationary pressures. Third, to restore credit growth, eurozone banks and banking systems that are under-capitalized should be strengthened with public financing in a European Union-wide program. To avoid an additional credit crunch as banks deleverage, banks should be given some short-term forbearance on capital and liquidity requirements. Also, since the US and EU financial systems remain unlikely to provide credit to small and medium-size enterprises, direct government provision of credit to solvent but illiquid SMEs is essential. Fourth, large-scale liquidity provision for solvent governments is necessary to avoid a spike in spreads and loss of market access that would turn illiquidity into insolvency. Even with policy changes, it takes time for governments to restore their credibility. Until then, markets will keep pressure on sovereign spreads, making a self-fulfilling crisis likely. Agree or disagree with Roubini, by proposing specific steps, he does allow for a meaningful discussion. Two big questions raised by his proposals are 1) is a coordinated global policy possible in today's political climate, and 2) if so, then how might it come about? Read How to Prevent a Depression here .
  • Glaeser: 'Cities are the Economic Heartland of America'

    Harvard economist Edward Glaeser has a new book out, Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier and Happier . In the book, he challenges some of our conventional wisdom about cities. Or at least it challenges the political and media narratives about cities Healthier? Greener? Glaeser made the case for cities on The Daily Show . Note how he argues that cities are the "economic heartland America" (at 4:15): The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c Edward Glaeser www.thedailyshow.com Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog The Daily Show on Facebook Hat tip to Greg Mankiw .
  • Roger Altman on the Federal Deficit, Stimulus, and Government Options in Spurring Recovery

    Bloomberg's Hans Nichols reports that Roger Altman is being considered to replace Lawrence Summers as the director of the President's National Economic Council . We remember Altman as Deputy Secretary of the Treasury during the first two years of the Clinton Administration. Now he is chairman of Evercore Partners , the investment banking boutique that he founded. As we were looking for more information on Altman, we came across this interview with Charlie Rose from July 2009. In this excerpt, Altman is discussing the deficit and some of the other key issues he will have to consider if he does end up as a key adviser to President Obama: Watch the full interview here .
  • St Louis Fed President Tells Dow Jones That No More Fed Aid is Needed

    James Bullard , president of the Federal Bank of St. Louis , believes the Fed has done its job in working to right the economy. And though the recovery is not exactly humming along, Bullard views the recent "mixed " reports on housing and jobs as relatively positive, and he sees signals that we are in a "soft patch in the recovery." He spoke with Dow Jones Newswires' Michael Derb y about the state of the economy:
  • The Fed's Options

    The Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet tomorrow to discuss the state of the US economy and ways to push recovery. The Financial Times is now reporting that the Fed will "downgrade its assessment" of the economy . So that opens up questions of what tools the Fed may use to stimulate the sluggish recovery. Will the Fed be able to inject additional fiscal stimulus measures? Is additional quantitative easing a possibility? The University of Oregon's Tim Duy is expecting a "small change." Bottom Line: The incoming data appears largely consistent with the Fed's priors - especially expectations of glacially slow improvement in the labor market. Yet the probability of any upside risk to the forecast have diminished markedly. The V-shaped recovery has not emerged. The elimination of that upside risk argues for additional easing, but the Fed appears hesitant to do more. Uncertainty about the effectiveness of additional easing argues against more action, especially given relatively quiescent financial markets and positive, albeit lackluster, growth. Moreover, any additional action now is essentially a promise to do more later, even if growth remains along its current trajectory. All of these points argue against additional easing tomorrow, and that remains my baseline scenario. The case becomes muddied by internal, staff level pressure to do more now, combined with rising expectations of imminent easing given the steady flow of leaks to the press. This opens the possibility of a small policy adjustment that eliminates that passive reduction of the balance sheet. Any more is off the table. Read Tim Duy's Fed Watch here .
  • David Wessel on Three Years of Fighting Economic Collapse

    David Wessel outlines what we have learned since the start of economic collapse in August of 2007 in his weekly column (subscription required), and in this short video from the Wall Street Journal . Among other key points, Wessel says that the efforts to avert major economic meltdown will likely end up costing taxpayers less in actual dollars, but that long term political and economic costs will be much greater.
  • Carlyle Group's Rubenstein on Unemployment and Slow Growth

    David Rubenstein , Co-founder and Managing Director of The Carlyle Group , told Charlie Rose that we need to be satisfied with a relatively flat economy through at least the rest of the year. With unemployment so high, and Congress showing little will to do anything significant before fall elections, he is expecting things to stay pretty much the same. As for the long term prospects of the US economy, Rubenstein seems to think the days of 5-6% growth—at least for extended periods—are a thing of the past. Here is an excerpt of the interview: Watch the full interview here .
  • State Governments' Lasting Struggle for Revenue

    Jeremy Gerst and Daniel Wilson , both economists at the San Francisco Fed , have just published an Economic Letter in which they describe the struggles of state governments to make ends meet. And they share two telling graphs. First, a look at what happened to revenue when real GDP dropped: And then a look at how spending changed (or rather, didn't) as revenue dropped: The picture, Gerst and Wilson write, is not bound to look any prettier for some time: All indications are that states will be struggling to move their budgets toward balance for quite some time. Recovery of state finances historically lags recovery of the national economy. Forecasters expect the national economy to recover gradually (see Weidner and Williams 2010). Thus, it will take quite a while before states see considerable improvement in their fiscal health. Indeed, estimates from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities show significant state budget gaps persisting through at least 2012. And a recent Rockefeller Institute report noted that most states are uncertain when revenue will return to prerecession levels, indicating the problem could continue well beyond 2012 (see Boyd and Dadayan 2010). In many respects, fiscal conditions are likely to get worse before they get better. Federal stimulus plan grants to state governments have helped states close budget gaps. However, federal stimulus funds are set to diminish in 2011 and all but disappear in 2012, leaving states to deal with their budget gaps without this federal support. Another factor that could worsen state budget problems is the depletion of rainy-day funds. At this point, even states that had rainy-day funds going into the recession have fully tapped them. Finally, some states have used accounting tricks to in effect kick the fiscal adjustment can down the road. Now these have largely been exhausted and the end of the road is in sight. Read Fiscal Crises of the States: Causes and Consequences here .
  • Mankiw on Stimulus and the Obama Administration Diagnosis and Prescription for Economic Crisis

    Greg Mankiw weighs in on the Obama administration's economic stimulus measures in the Summer 2010 issue of National Affairs . And Mankiw cautions us to look at the macroeconomist models used to determine the state of the economy back at the beginning of 2009, rather than just the measures used to fight economic crisis. Mankiw writes that the Obama administration saw "decline in aggregate demand" as the key problem. Mankiw: So, inspired by the view that fiscal policy can prop up aggregate demand, Obama's advisors (and their congressional allies) began to design a stimulus plan heavy on direct government spending. A few days before President Obama's inauguration, his economic advisors released a document titled "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan," in which they detailed some of their economic assumptions. They determined that the "government-purchases multiplier" — that is, the multiplier for direct spending — would be 1.57, while the tax-cut multiplier would be 0.99. In other words, every dollar spent by the government would yield $1.57 in aggregate demand, while every dollar in reduced taxes would yield only 99 cents in increased demand. And because 1.57 is larger than 0.99, the Obama team concluded it was better to increase spending than to cut taxes. Obama and his advisors arrived at these numbers through a standard macroeconometric model of the sort economists have been using for years. Such models take various past relationships among economic variables (inflation and unemployment, for instance) and extrapolate them into the future. In essence, the economy is modeled as a system of equations, each describing how one variable responds to many others. University of Chicago economist (and Nobel laureate) Robert Lucas famously criticized these models for lacking an appreciation of people's changing expectations; many economists, however, still find such models valuable, and have continued to employ them for forecasting and policy analysis. The question for economists now is whether the administration's assumptions, and the model based on them, were correct. After all, if we could be sure their model was right, we would know what to conclude when their stimulus plan was followed by 10% unemployment: The patient was sicker than they thought, and unemployment would surely have been higher still if not for the stimulus. (Indeed, since Obama's advisors do believe their model was right, this is the conclusion they have reached.) The trouble is, we have no way of knowing for sure if the model was in fact correct. To react to a model's failure to predict events accurately by insisting that the model was nonetheless right — as Obama's economic advisors have done — is hardly the most obvious course. Careful economists should instead respond with humility. When their predictions fail — as they often do — they should not dig in their heels, but should instead be willing to go back to their starting assumptions and question their validity. Read Crisis Economics here .
  • White House Honors Small Business Owners, Calls on Congress to Pass Small Business Jobs Package

    Noting that small business owners are not "just the backbone of this economy," but also "the driving force behind this recovery," President Obama introduced the 2010 Small Business Owners of the year . The winners: National Small Business Owner of the Year: Waymon Armstrong, of Florida based Engineering & Computer Simulations Inc. First Runner-up: Rebecca Ann Ufkes (pictured second from right), president of UEC Electronics, LLC, of Hanahan, South Carolina. Second Runner-up: Warner Cruz (pictured third from left), president of J.C. Restoration, Inc., of Rolling Meadows, Illinois. In the ceremony honoring small business, the President outlined the goals of his administration in aiding small business owners, and called on Congress to pass a Small Business Jobs Package. Watch the ceremony here:
  • NYT: As Other Countries Look to 'Roll Back' Stimulus, Japan Easing Monetary Policy

    Japan's central bank started to pursue a policy of quantitative easing in 2001. It moved off of the "zero-interest rate" policy after 5 years, but then the global economic crisis hit, and rates went down again. Now, it is continuing to push monetary policy as a means of fighting deflation in the world's second largest economy. Hiroko Tabuchi has the story in today's New York Times : Central banks around the world have in recent weeks mulled rolling back stimulus steps put in place during the global economic crisis, gradually shrinking excess liquidity in their banking systems. The U.S. Federal Reserve said Tuesday it will let a mortgage-security purchase program expire at the end of March. But in Japan — where prices have remained sluggish amid a lackluster recovery from its worst recession since World War II — the government has urged monetary authorities to further stimulate the economy by flooding the banking sector with cash. Japan is also leaning on monetary policy because its public debt load, the highest among industrialized countries, makes it reluctant to spend more money on public works projects and other government stimulus programs. Read Japan Eases Monetary Policy to Fight Deflation here .
  • One Small Business's Expansion Efforts Blocked By the Credit Crunch

    Thomas Harrison wants to double his company's size in the next five years. If he were able to do so, he could at 20 new jobs. And Ypsilanti, Michigan--where Harrison's Michigan Ladder Company is based--needs those jobs. But Harrison's expansion plans are at the mercy of the banks. And banks are reluctant to open up new credit as they themselves try to recover from a series of loan defaults with the collapse of the housing market. The Wall Street Journal 's Mark Whitehouse describes Harrison's situation in what serves as a helpful case study for the struggles of small businesses across the country. And ultimately Whitehouse's article and accompanying multimedia features lay out the problem for job creation today--no credit, no expansion, no new jobs: For a recovery to take hold, hundreds of thousands of small businesses must find the confidence to expand and create jobs. But when they get to that point, the local banks they depend on—worried about borrowers' financial strength, scrutinized by regulators and slammed by souring real-estate loans—might not be willing or able to provide the credit they need. While big companies have been able to borrow in bond markets, smaller companies rely mainly on bank credit, which has been shrinking. In 2009, total lending by U.S. banks fell 7.4%, the steepest drop since 1942. In all, the credit pulled out of the economy by banks since the downfall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 amounts to about $700 billion, more than double the amount so far distributed under President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus program. Read Loan Squeeze Thwarts Small-Business Revival here . And meet Harrison, CEO of 108-year-old American Ladder Company, in this Wall Street Journal video: