There was a rise in optimism among small business owners in November, according to a National Federation of Independent Business survey. The NFIB's optimism index rose to 92.1, from 90.2 in October, spurred largely by perceptions among small business owners that labor conditions are improving. Here's a look at the long term trend: While the uptick is certainly a nice change from the end of the summer, when the index was down at 88.1, NFIB economists William Dunkelberg and Holly Wade do not exude optimism in their report. After all, they point out, the index is still 2 points lower than it was at the beginning of the year. The economy is slowly righting itself, dealing with a huge excess supply of assets created in the 2003-2007 boom and the associated debt incurred to create those assets and take consumption to a record high share of GDP (the “party”). The 2000 stock crash left winners with cash and losers with worthless shares of lostmoney.com. We moved on, winners and losers declared. The housing bubble crash left a different set of assets for us to deal with. Declaring, even finding, winners and losers is a mess, not the least due to government trying to determine the outcomes. Not worthless pieces of paper but millions of houses, apartments, condos and less often discussed, retail stores, strip malls, restaurants and the like and a pile of inventory to get rid of. This process is difficult and protracted. In 2007, 845,000 new firms were formed (displacing 804,000 existing firms). This process went into reverse in 2008. More firms terminated, fewer started, fewer new homes were built, inventory went on sale to raise cash and employment was slashed as the now surplus of firms struggled to survive. Many of these sought loans to “tide them over”, loans that by now would in most instances have gone bad had they been made. The adjustment seems to be about over. Historically high percentages of owners report inventories are in balance, reduced to match anemic consumer spending. However few plan to add to stocks as prospects for improved growth have not been optimistic. Firms have stopped firing workers, employment has adjusted to weaker sales, but hiring new workers remains muted, as sales prospects offer little reason to hire more workers. Most equipment is still working requiring little need to buy new stuff. Still a problem is the number of firms competing for reduced levels of consumer spending, experiencing poor financial performance. There is likely more to come here, more terminations. This will increase sales at the remaining firms and with a boost from modestly improving consumer spending, begin to address the unemployment problem a bit more aggressively. The excess supply of structures will continue to be a drag, but less so. Read the full report here .