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  • NFIB Small Business Index Continued to Inch Upward in November

    There was a rise in optimism among small business owners in November, according to a National Federation of Independent Business survey. The NFIB's optimism index rose to 92.1, from 90.2 in October, spurred largely by perceptions among small business owners that labor conditions are improving. Here's a look at the long term trend: While the uptick is certainly a nice change from the end of the summer, when the index was down at 88.1, NFIB economists William Dunkelberg and Holly Wade do not exude optimism in their report. After all, they point out, the index is still 2 points lower than it was at the beginning of the year. The economy is slowly righting itself, dealing with a huge excess supply of assets created in the 2003-2007 boom and the associated debt incurred to create those assets and take consumption to a record high share of GDP (the “party”). The 2000 stock crash left winners with cash and losers with worthless shares of lostmoney.com. We moved on, winners and losers declared. The housing bubble crash left a different set of assets for us to deal with. Declaring, even finding, winners and losers is a mess, not the least due to government trying to determine the outcomes. Not worthless pieces of paper but millions of houses, apartments, condos and less often discussed, retail stores, strip malls, restaurants and the like and a pile of inventory to get rid of. This process is difficult and protracted. In 2007, 845,000 new firms were formed (displacing 804,000 existing firms). This process went into reverse in 2008. More firms terminated, fewer started, fewer new homes were built, inventory went on sale to raise cash and employment was slashed as the now surplus of firms struggled to survive. Many of these sought loans to “tide them over”, loans that by now would in most instances have gone bad had they been made. The adjustment seems to be about over. Historically high percentages of owners report inventories are in balance, reduced to match anemic consumer spending. However few plan to add to stocks as prospects for improved growth have not been optimistic. Firms have stopped firing workers, employment has adjusted to weaker sales, but hiring new workers remains muted, as sales prospects offer little reason to hire more workers. Most equipment is still working requiring little need to buy new stuff. Still a problem is the number of firms competing for reduced levels of consumer spending, experiencing poor financial performance. There is likely more to come here, more terminations. This will increase sales at the remaining firms and with a boost from modestly improving consumer spending, begin to address the unemployment problem a bit more aggressively. The excess supply of structures will continue to be a drag, but less so. Read the full report here .
  • Karen Mills on the Need for Public/Private Partnerships to Get Capital to 'Main Street Businesses'

    Speaking yesterday at the Brookings Institution , Small Business Administrator Karen Mills once again argued that the big challenge for small businesses is getting access to capital. Mills pointed to positive signs for small business growth, but without banks lending to smaller institutions in many communities, there is a gap between supply and demand. One answer may be fostering more private/public partnerships: Watch more excerpts from Mills's appearance yesterday here .
  • Surowiecki: Americans Have 'Soft Spot' for Small Businesses, But Large Businesses Drive the Economy

    New Yorker writer James Surowiecki challenges the political rhetoric that small businesses drive America's prosperity. Sharing a history lesson from Marc Levinson 's The Great A. & P. and the Struggle for Small Business in America , Surowiecki points to past efforts to control large businesses on behalf of small stores through policing prices that suppliers charged chain retailers. From his Financial Page column: These days, government regulation to keep prices high is less popular. But the fetishization of small business continues apace. Some of the support derives from real virtues that small companies offer—diversity of choice, connection to local communities. But much of it derives from the idea that the nation’s economic well-being depends on such companies. Given that the overwhelming number of American businesses are small, and that, as we’ve all heard, small businesses create most new jobs, this seems reasonable enough. But the truth is that, from the perspective of the economy as a whole, small companies are not the real drivers of growth. One can see this by looking at the track record of the world’s economies. The developed countries with the highest percentage of workers employed by small businesses include Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy—that is, the four countries whose economic woes are wreaking such havoc on financial markets. Meanwhile, the countries with the lowest percentage of workers employed by small businesses are Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and the U.S.—some of the strongest economies in the world. This correlation is not a coincidence. It reflects a simple reality: small businesses are, on the whole, less productive than big businesses, and though they do create most jobs, they also destroy most jobs, since, while starting a business is easy, keeping it going is hard. This is true around the world. A recent study by the World Bank that looked at ninety-nine developing countries found that large firms had significantly higher productivity growth. And in the U.S. the connection between size and productivity is, as a 2009 study showed, especially close. In part, this is because big businesses are able to enjoy economies of scale and scope. Big businesses are also better able to make investments in productivity-enhancing technologies and systems; in the U.S., for instance, big companies account for the vast majority of R. & D. spending. Read Big is Beautiful here .
  • SF Fed Economic Letter: A Potential Decline in the Decline of Small Business Lending

    While the number and overall value of loans to small businesses continues to decline, the rate of decline may be leveling off, according to San Francisco Fed economists Liz Laderman and James Gillan . In an Economic Letter , Laderman and Gillan chart lending to small businesses from large and small banks. Here's the trend for large banks: Laderman and Gillan write: The small business loan trend at large banks is similar to the trend for all banks. Aggregate small business loans at large banks shrank between June 30, 2008, and June, 30, 2009, at a steeper rate from then until June 30, 2010, and more slowly over the four quarters to June 30, 2011 (Figure 1). At those large banks, the rate of contraction moderated for small CRE loans and especially for small C&I loans. The moderation in C&I contraction since mid-2010 is consistent with the results of the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, which gathers data from approximately 60 large domestic banks plus some U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. The July 2010 survey was the first to show an easing of standards on C&I loans to smaller businesses since late 2006 (Federal Reserve Board 2010). But, whether positive growth in small C&I loans at large banks will soon occur and be sustained may depend on small business loan demand. The National Federation of Independent Business reports that about 25% of the small businesses it surveys cite poor sales as their main business problem. In contrast, only 3% cite financing as their main business problem, although 8% report that not all of their credit needs are satisfied (Dunkelberg and Wade 2011). It appears that a key variable for banks, small banks in particular, is whether small business loans are backed by commercial real estate or not. Those loans not backed by real estate are looking more promising. Read Recent Trends in Small Business Lending here .
  • Intuit Small Business Empoyment Index Shows Jobs Growth in September

    The Intuit Small Business Employment Index brings some much-desired good news on the small business front. The index shows job growth in nearly every region. The total jobs gained in small businesses for the month of September were not large--50,000--but wages and hours are also ticking up. Get the details in this infographic from Intuit's small business blog : via: Small Business Employment, Compensation, Hours Worked All Up in September 2011 [INFOGRAPHIC] (Hat tip Barry Ritholz )
  • Another Call for Startups in a Downturn

    Rohit Arora may not believe in the strength of the US economy right now, but he still believes that current conditions should encourage new business ventures. Arora started Biz2Credit at the height of the financial crisis three years ago. So he has put his money where his mouth is. At Small Business Trends , Arora gives four reasons that now is a good time for startups: 1) Job Growth Is Almost Nonexistent 2) Low-Cost Capital Is Available 3) Technology Makes It Easier to Go Into Business Than Ever Before 4) America Has a Heritage of Entrepreneurship Okay, so the fourth reason is a little less scientific (indeed, Arora might make many economists roll their eyes when he credits small business for leading the US out of past recession), but the others represent classic downturn opportunities. Do you see others? And what are the primary impediments for new business ventures at this stage beyond the uncertainty of the larger economic picture? Read Arora's full post here .
  • Five Personality Factors for Successful Entrepreneurs

    At Forbes , Mary Frakes and Thomas Harrison teach us about five personality factors they say are key in assessing whether one has the necessary makeup to be a successful entrepreneur. The first four may seem obvious: Openness to Experience Conscientiousness Extroversion Agreeableness The fifth personality factor stands out a bit: Neuroticism . Here's how Frakes and Harrison introduce this trait: This one's a biggie. Neuroticism measures how strongly and negatively you react to the stresses of life. Highly neurotic people have strong emotional reactions to problems and take a long time to get over bad moods, anger or hostility. They often feel anxious or depressed, and are seen as worriers. Those at the other end may not always be happy or cheerful, but they don't tend to be overwhelmed if they occasionally feel depressed, anxious, or angry. Such equanimity gives them an advantage as entrepreneurs because they tend not to let snags get them down. Frakes and Harrison provide a quiz that examines one's neuroticism, and the other 4 factors, as a means of determining whether one is better suited to work in a company or for herself/himself. Take the quiz here , and then read more on the methodology here .
  • Failure of Imagination Dooms Start-ups

    Scott Shane wants entrepreneurs to take responsibility in their decisions. He rejects assertions that most start-ups fail because of outside forces beyond control of the people who start the start-ups. And he especially rejects the notion that start-ups struggle because they can't keep up with rapid growth. Rather, Shane, Professor of Entrepreneurial Studies at Case Western Reserve University, argues that entrepreneurs set their new companies up for failure by choosing to enter industries that are "unfavorable to new companies." From Small Business Trends: Many entrepreneurs start companies that stand little chance of out-competing other businesses. Data from the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics reveals that nearly 40 percent of the founders of new companies don’t think that their businesses have a competitive advantage. (Because entrepreneurs are an optimistic lot, if a business’s founders don’t think the company has a competitive advantage, what are the odds that it does?) Not enough entrepreneurs have experience in the industries in which they are starting their businesses. Academic research shows that working in an industry for several years before starting a business enhances the survival prospects of a start-up, but a sizable fraction of entrepreneurs start businesses in industries in which they have no work experience. Many entrepreneurs fail to take the actions that research shows help businesses to survive. Academic evidence shows that putting in place careful financial controls, emphasizing marketing plans and writing a business plan increase the odds that a new business will survive, yet many founders fail to write plans, have inadequate financial controls and don’t focus on their marketing plans. Read Why Do Most Start Ups Fail? here .
  • Small Business Trends: Managing and Marketing Expertise in Today's Economy

    Diane Helbig says we are living in an "expertise economy." With all the tools consumers have to do their own research, Helbig says what business owners know is as important as what they make. Writing at Small Business Trends , Helbig shares some best practices for businesses in this new economy. One of the parctices she encourages is to "build a community": Find experts in other fields that are complementary to yours. Invite those experts to share their information with your audience. Build a foundation of experts so your audience sees you as a go-to company whenever they need information – even outside of your area of expertise. Szarka Financial in North Olmsted, Ohio, is a great example of this practice. Not only have they developed programs that they offer around their industry, but they have gathered a stable of experts in various areas that touch theirs. They have established their firm as a go-to source for people who are looking for information in and around the area of personal and business finances. They understand that they aren’t going to do business with everyone. However, sharing information with everyone helps consumers decide if Szarka is right for them and provides Szarka with a great referral pool. Actually, two referral pools: (1) the partner organizations they promote, and (2) the people who take advantage of the information Szarka and their partners share. Read 3 Steps to Succeeding in the Expertise Economy here .
  • Long Term Impact of Unemployment on Earnings

    Brookings has released a series of papers on the long term impact of unemployment on earnings. The subjects in the new issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , include how government policy can help small businesses grow, and the effectiveness of quantitative easing. Justin Wolfers was one of the editors of the papers, and he provides a nice summary here :
  • Self-Employed no More: Slowdown in Job Creation Among Entrepreneurs and the Smallest of Firms

    Bloomberg News reporters Anna-Louise Jackson and Anthony Feld write that at least a million formerly self-employed Americans, aggregate, have lost their businesses since the start of the recession. This knocks down one silver-lining narrative of the global economic crisis: that more people will take the opportunity to work for themselves as big corporations shed jobs. The 18-month contraction that started in December 2007 initially resulted in more would-be business owners, as the number of people who work for themselves grew to 16.3 million in July 2008 from 15.7 million at the end of 2007, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since then, the total has fallen about 10 percent to 14.7 million in July, the data show. Employer businesses - those that provide work for individuals including the founder - "have been starting in fewer numbers, with fewer workers and growing at a slower pace than in the past," according to Robert Litan, a vice president at the Kauffman Foundation, which supports research on startups. "Therefore, these entrepreneurs are generating increasingly fewer new jobs for the U.S. labor market." The number of new employer businesses dropped 24 percent to 505,473 on an annual basis in 2010 from 667,341 in 2006, according to Litan, who co-wrote a report published in July on small-business job creation. Read Economy knocks self-employed out of business here . The Kauffman Foundation report to which the article refers provides helpful detail and analysis of the loss of jobs among small businesses and startups. We'll share just one chart from the report that illustrates the central point of Jackson and Feld's reporting: Read Starting Smaller; Staying Smaller: America’s Slow Leak in Job Creation here .
  • 'Don't Be Boring' and Other Tips for Small Business Owners Making Facebook Their Primary Web Address

    With the rise of social media and the increasing use of Facebook as a primary gathering spot online, many small companies are considering shifting to Facebook as their primary virtual storefront. Eric Packer , entrepreneur and founder of Small Business Search , says that may work out as the best bang for the buck for small businesses, as long as you think strategically. At Small Business CEO , Packer shares four tips for those business owners and marketing managers looking to focus on Facebook. The first tip: "Don't Be Boring!": With a standard website, it is okay to post relatively dry, informative content. If people come across this site, it’s likely because they were already searching for something that you were selling. However, people don’t go on Facebook when they want to purchase things. They go on Facebook when they want to be entertained by links and posts from their friends. In order to use your Facebook site effectively, you need to update it at least several times a week with entertaining content. What is entertaining content? Being told what to do in the form of a blatant advertisement is not entertaining. An informative article about things that your product does might entertain. A comedy video based on your product is definitely entertainment. Behind-the-scenes footage of popular events might be intriguing. Weird, unexpected happenings are fun to share. Automated posts are not entertaining. Completely random posts might entertain a few people. A variety of unique posts and content types centered on a similar theme, style or brand of writing and content sharing is definitely entertaining. On your small business Facebook site, people see your content next to their friends’ content. You have to be at least as worthy of attention as interpersonal relationships if you want to be successful. Read Packer's other tips here .
  • A Blueprint for Reasoned, Rational Response to Small Business Economic Challenges

    The cover of the legendary Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy had two simple words: Don't Panic . Mike Periu of EcoFin Media urges small business owners to heed that advice. As bad as it may seem, panic is not a productive response. Instead, Perlu writes at American Express's Open Forum , "take a deep breath," and then follow these steps: First, check your lines of credit Second, slash your sales forecasts Third, increase your DSO, A/R, and bad debt assumptions Fourth, hold an employee meeting Fifth, stay flexible Read Should You Be Panicking Right Now? here .
  • Social Media Mistakes to Avoid

    We are always happy to highlight tips and posts on how businesses can better leverage social media for marketing success. But today we want to share a list of what businesses should avoid doing. At Entrepreneur , social media consultant Starr Hall lists the top mistakes she sees businesses making with social media. Here they are: 1. Talking One-Way; 2. Not Knowing When to Ask for Business; 3. Shiny Object Syndrome; 4. Poor Messaging; and 5. Sales Faux Pas. Click here to read Hall's descriptions of these mistakes, and for tips on how to avoid making them.
  • Fast Food Franchises Learning from Food Truck Entrepreneurs

    The popularity of food trucks continues to climb, and the business world has been taking notice. While once the domain of streetwise entrepreneurs with culinary chops, investment bankers and established fast food businesses are getting into the game as well, according to Entrepreneur Magazine 's Jason Daley : The food-truck craze--whether it's a bubble that will eventually burst or a new fixture on the American culinary scene--is pulling in big numbers. In a 2010 survey by Chicago-based food industry research and consulting firm Technomic for American Express, 26 percent of Americans said they had visited a food truck in the last six months, despite the fact that most trucks are concentrated in a few big cities. A popular Food Network reality show, The Great Food Truck Race, in which seven mobile gourmands try to outsell each other, has primed millions of people for mobile dining. "Ten percent of the top 200 restaurant chains will have a mobile presence in the next 24 months," says Aaron Noveshen, co-founder of Mobi Munch, a Los Angeles-based company that helps develop mobile platforms and runs several food trucks in California. "I can already count eight that do." Even if the hipster sheen fades from the gourmet food trucks, Noveshen believes they'll still find a customer base at colleges, corporate campuses and other areas where full-service restaurants aren't viable. Food trucks offer something that is always appealing: convenience. "People are more time-starved than ever," Noveshen says. "Mobile food will serve that need. It's a fundamental thing that never goes away." Read Franchises Hop on the Food-Truck Trend here .
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