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  • Brookings: 'Mobile Money in Developing Economies'

    One piece of technology is changing providing access to banking to millions of people in communities around the globe that have never had access before: the mobile phone. This Brookings video highlights M-Pesa , a mobile banking product that has changed the lived of an estimated 2 million Kenyans, and arguably lifted the economic fortunes of their communities. It is the story of an innovative product that scale s rapidly:
  • Timothy Geithner Defends his Response to the Libor Crisis

    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was Charlie Rose 's guest last night. Geithner and Rose covered a lot of ground, but the Secretary spent a lot of time talking about Europe. He said that business and policy leaders around the globe are all feeling the pinch, and waiting for the EU to sort out debt problems. And in this excerpt, Sec. Geithner discussed the Libor crisis in Britain, and defended his own response to early warnings about what was happening at British banks: The full video is available here .
  • McKinsey: Basel III To Bring Drop in Revenue for Europe's Banks

    With new regulations scheduled to hit, Europe's banks can expect lower returns, according to a new report from McKinsey & Company . Down the road, banks have an opportunity to make up the lost ground and build more sustainable practices, but first the hit on returns will look something like this: We estimate that without any mitigating action by banks or material changes in the economic and competitive environment, recent global rules, especially Basel III,1 and new regional and national regulations will help reduce retail banking’s average return on equity (ROE) in Europe’s four largest markets to 6 percent, from about 10—a 41 percent decline. The analysis, based on 2010 financial-year data, assumes that the cumulative regulatory impact expected over the next several years will be realized immediately. The effects vary across the four markets, but in all cases the outlook is grim (exhibit). In France, ROE will fall to 9.5 percent, from 13.5—a 29 percent decline driven by changes affecting mortgages, debit cards, and investments. In Germany, ROE will fall to 3.5 percent, from 6.6 (a drop of 47 percent); almost all retail products will be affected and many will become unprofitable. ROE in Italy’s retail banks starts from a lower base, 5.1 percent, but will fall further, to 3.1 percent. In the United Kingdom, returns will fall to 7 percent, from 13.6 percent. The impact here, 48 percent, is high because of extensive country-specific regulation. Access the full report here .
  • Barry Ritholtz Reports Back from the Future on Effective Regulation of "Reckless Speculation"

    In his latest column for The Washington Post , Barry Ritholtz tells us he made a trip recently. A trip to 2015. And he brought back some good news. By then, apparently, " we had ended Too Big to Fail, eliminated taxpayer liability for reckless speculation, and freed hedge funds and investment banks from onerous regulations." To prove this seemingly unlikely development, Ritholtz brought back a letter from the chairman of the FDIC to bankers in which the chairman outlines some of the changes that the FDIC has put through after a round of very disheartening stress tests (performed in 2014). Here is an excerpt: 1. Effectively immediately, we have increased the FDIC deposit insurance for any U.S. bank that engages in ANY trading of derivatives or underwriting securities or other investment banking activities by threefold. This threefold fee increase goes into effect immediately. It applies whether these trades are hedges for proprietary trades or are made on behalf of clients. 2. Effective in 90 days, we are LOWERING the maximum insured deposit liability to $100,000 per account for derivative trading firms. Effective in 180 days, the insured maximum insured deposit liability will drop to $50,000 per account. 3. Effective one year from today, on May 23, 2016, we will no longer offer deposit insurance for any firm that engages in derivative trading or securities underwriting or that engages in investment banking. 4. Any bank with fewer than 1,000 depositors or less than $1 billion in assets may apply for a discretionary waiver of these rules. Read How the FDIC can curb banks’ reckless speculation here .
  • Robert Shiller's Speech to Finance Graduates

    Tis the season of graduations, and Robert Shiller has some thoughts to share with newly minted graduates looking to work in the field of finance. One key theme: Shiller wants new entrants into the fields of banking, economics, and finance to consider themselves as fiscal stewards and not simply people out to make money for money's sake. From Project Syndicate : Those of you deciding to pursue careers as economists and finance scholars need to develop a better understanding of asset bubbles – and better ways to communicate this understanding to the finance profession and to the public. As much as Wall Street had a hand in the current crisis, it began as a broadly held belief that housing prices could not fall – a belief that fueled a full-blown social contagion. Learning how to spot such bubbles and deal with them before they infect entire economies will be a major challenge for the next generation of finance scholars. Equipped with sophisticated financial ideas ranging from the capital asset pricing model to intricate options-pricing formulas, you are certainly and justifiably interested in building materially rewarding careers. There is no shame in this, and your financial success will reflect to a large degree your effectiveness in producing strong results for the firms that employ you. But, however imperceptibly, the rewards for success on Wall Street, and in finance more generally, are changing, just as the definition of finance must change if is to reclaim its stature in society and the trust of citizens and leaders. Finance, at its best, does not merely manage risk, but also acts as the steward of society’s assets and an advocate of its deepest goals. Beyond compensation, the next generation of finance professionals will be paid its truest rewards in the satisfaction that comes with the gains made in democratizing finance – extending its benefits into corners of society where they are most needed. This is a new challenge for a new generation, and will require all of the imagination and skill that you can bring to bear. Read the full speech here .
  • Phil Angelides on the 'Avoidable' Global Financial Crisis

    Are you watching the Frontline series, Money, Power and Wall Street ? The first two parts of the series are airing on PBS member stations this week. The series is packing a lot of history into a relatively short amount of time, but remains quite comprehensive. It is quite a teaching tool. Frontline has also made extended interviews with the experts and major players in the series available online. Here is Phil Angelides , chair of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission speaking about how the FCIC came to the conclusion that the financial crisis was avoidable: Watch The FRONTLINE Interview: Phil Angelides on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE. Watch more extended interviews here .
  • Esther Dyson on the 'Magical Thinking' behind the JOBS Act

    Esther Dyson is a big believer in startups and the power of entrepreneurship. So it may come as a bit of a surprise to learn that she is not on board with the JOBS Act . JOBS stands for Jumpstart Our Business Startups. Dyson doesn't seem to buy into the idea that government can do the jumpstart part effectively, and she likens such a move to policymakers thinking they could, or even should, help people fulfill the "American dream" of home ownership. Writing at Project Syndicate , Dyson commends the trusting spirit behind the JOBS Act, but explains that such a well-meaning initiative is rife for exploitation: I wish I had more faith in the system, but the problem is not a lack of good people, good investors, or good entrepreneurs. The problem is that, without regulation, bad people take advantage of the good ones. While regulation and restrictions may hamper small business, not all regulation and restrictions are useless. Yes, there are some wonderful, honest companies that deserve investment and can’t get it, but they are not that common. I see a lot of start-ups. Many are appealing and have good ideas, yet most of them fail. Now the quality of even the honest start-ups is likely to decline as more of them are established, and they will spend more of other people’s money before failing. For example, with more start-ups, it will be even harder for each of them to find management talent and the right employees. Indeed, many people whom an entrepreneur might have hired will probably become CEOs of competing start-ups. Meanwhile, all of them will be competing for a finite number of customers, and those companies that make progress will then have to compete for scarcer scale-up capital. Many investors in these startups are likely to lose their money. Even under the current system, many angel investors lose money. The best route to success in angel investing is to invest in, say, ten or more separate companies, so that you have the chance of at least one big winner. But, again, a broader investor pool is likely to reduce the average number of investments per investor, with inadequate diversification leading to many more losers than winners. The faith that drives the JOBS Act is the same magical thinking that drives many Internet phenomena: people are good and everyone means well. But the Internet’s easy accessibility and low entry barriers have led to spam and malware and bad behavior; each new service starts out “clean,” but then ends up requiring its own regulations. Read Markets of Magical Thinking here .
  • Ongoing Dangers with Shadow Banking

    At the Marketplace Whiteboard , Paddy Hirsch reminds us that the so-called "banking crisis" of 2008-2009 was really more of a "shadow banking crisis." The crisis seemed to be resolved, but were the underlying dangers taken out of the system? Not so much, says Hirsch, as shadow banking is bigger than ever.
  • Paddy Hirsch on the 'REALLY not cool' Practice of Insider Trading

    With the Senate taking up a House-passed bill to limit insider trading by members of Congress, Paddy Hirsch takes to the Marketplace Whiteboard to give his own, clear explanation of what the practice involves. But instead of using members of Congress in his example, he uses chickens and foxes:
  • Boston Globe: 'The Rise of Beeronomics'

    This week's Boston Globe Ideas section highlighted the burgeoning new field of beeronomics. Belgian economist Johan Swinnen is one of the leaders of the new field, and he is the editor of the new book, The Economics of Beer . The Ideas section interviewed Swinnen about the importance of beer to trade, industry regulation, and even the significance of microbeweries: SWINNEN: In terms of growth rate, it’s the fastest-growing segment of the beer market. It’s a bit paradoxical that it started in the US, as the type of beers they’re selling are more European-like or Belgian-like. In the US, there has been very strong consolidation of the traditional beer sector. Basically, you can see the microbrew movement as a counterrevolution against extreme consolidation, against the homogenization of beer. There were just a few breweries left, just producing lager beer. A lot of people who enjoyed more variety in beer couldn’t find anything. So people started their own breweries. It has been a tremendous success. IDEAS: For a while there, it seemed as though Americans simply loved light beer. Why did all this consolidation and homogenization happen if there was a market or a taste for other styles? SWINNEN: There is a fantastic chapter in the book by Lisa George, a professor. She argues that there are a number of different reasons. Really important was advertising. It became crucial after the breakthrough of TV. After the 1950s, you could have big companies advertising through the nation. There was the breakthrough of Budweiser and Miller Lite and whatever. Advertising spread the domination of a couple of big companies in the ’60s and ’70s. In Europe, this occurred 30 years later, because commercial TV only came to Europe in the ’90s. Before, it was state-organized broadcasting, and there was no advertising. Since the ’90s and 2000s, Europe has seen exactly the same phenomenon. IDEAS: So television killed local beer, or tried to. SWINNEN: There was also new science and technological innovation in the 18th century. Before, you had beer that was brewed locally, on a small scale. Most of the beer that was brewed was what we now call “specialty beer.” Then people discovered how yeast really worked. When you could control the yeast and the brewing process, you could brew really crystal-clear beer. And you could produce good bottles and ways of cooling better and putting tops on bottles, which made it possible to produce beer on an industrial scale. Read the full interview here .
  • Jeffrey Sachs Calls on Nations to Pay Down Debt, AND Strengthen Public Policy Apparatus

    In his latest book, The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Prosperity , Jeffrey Sachs calls on Americans to recognize that we are connected to other countries' problems in direct ways, and that our behavior as consumers and citizens have a significant impact on global development. And he offers up his prescription for working toward a cure to the global economic crisis. He discussed the state of the global economy, and specifically the euro-zone debt crisis, in an interview with Parminder Bahra of the Wall Street Journal:
  • Niall Ferguson on Hopes for Manufacturing Rebound in US

    With wages in the US and the possibility of more dollar depreciation, there is some reason to think that manufacturing here could gain and become more competitive globally, Niall Ferguson says. However, he argues that any gains are short term, unless the US is able to foster a more competitive business climate nationally. And that, in part, means cleaning up laws for conducting business and making them more transparent from state to state: For more from Ferguson, listen to him discuss the overall decline of the West with On Point 's Tom Ashbrook , here .
  • Jay Shambaugh: Export Strength Sign that 'Economy is not Fundamentally Flawed'

    As much as the US economy is struggling, exports have been strong ever since the recession ended. According to Jay C. Shambaugh , of the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown, exports have risen 23% since the end of the recession. This is easily explained by the weakness of the dollar, right? The costs for US goods abroad have decreased along with the strength of the US economy. Not so fast, says Shambaugh. Writing at Econbrowser , he points out that the patterns of where exports have risen do not match the dollar's relative decline: The takeaway for Shambaugh seems to be that, while exports can not serve as the fix for the US economy's problems, their relative strength is a sign that the foundation might not be as cracked as some suggest: The ability of U.S. firms to increase production and sell to markets where demand is growing is just more evidence that the U.S. economy is not fundamentally flawed or broken. Firms can find workers and increase output where they have customers. Yet while exports to growing foreign markets have been soaring, at home, residential construction has collapsed, structures investment by firms has collapsed, and state and local government spending has declined. All of these are a serious brake on demand. Compounding all this is the fact that real Federal Government consumption expenditures and gross investment in the third quarter was 2% below that of a year ago. This acts as a further brake on growth in output and employment. Some businesses may complain about fear of regulation (though in surveys their number one complaint is lack of customers) and some commentators may worry about structural unemployment and a lack of appropriate skills amongst the U.S. work force. There is plenty of reason to always make sure that supply side policies are sensible and worker training and education is adequate. But these do not seem to be the problems of today. Based on exports, the evidence shows that where there is demand for their products, American firms are more than ready to produce and to sell. Read What can exports tell us about the economy? here .
  • Kothari: Future Growth in India Depends on Improving Infrastructure

    India's rise to the top of the global economy has been put on hold. Yes, the economy is still growing. But not at rates that we saw over the last few years. MIT Sloan School deputy dean and professor of management S. P. Kothari points to India's improve conditions for the more than 400 million Indians living in poverty. Without significant improvements in the education and overall standard of living for its citizens, India will always struggle to reach its economic potential. Kothari give a bit of a prescription at Forbes : First on the agenda: improving India’s hard infrastructure. The country’s power systems are woefully out of date. Its highways are congested; its roads are riddled with rocks and potholes. Its railways are limited, and its buses are overcrowded. Infrastructure is like a blood circulation system for an economy: It allows people and goods both physical and electronic to move quickly from one part of the country to another and out to the rest of the world. To make sure India’s economy is efficient and its exports remain competitive, India must make much-needed investments in infrastructure. Its soft infrastructure, especially its education system, is also in need of investment. Competing in the global economy requires an educated workforce, and though the country has made great strides in establishing a number of world-class universities, its primary and secondary schools are sorely deficient. India’s literacy rate is 74%. China’s, by comparison, is 92%. Rectifying this must be a priority. The country’s regulatory apparatus, also part of its soft infrastructure, needs an overhaul, too. Corruption is an integral part of Indian society. Bribery is common even among middle class households. So is tax evasion. Business owners routinely squirrel away undeclared profits. And regulators look the other way. Kothari goes on to write that more regulation is not the answer (just real enforcement of existing regulations), and no positive change will happen until India finds ways of increasing foreign direct investment. Read India's Faltering Boom, and How to Revive It here .
  • Alistair Darling on Steps that Could Have Been Taken, and Now Should be Taken to Strengthen Banking System and Economy

    Alistair Darling was the Chancellor of the Exchequer when the Global Economic Crisis hit, and he was tasked with rescuing Britain's banking system. Now he argues that further banking reforms are necessary to prevent another crisis. He spoke about that need, and the state of the global economy today, when he sat down for Tea with the Economist :
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