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  • OECD Commends Member Nations for Structural Reforms as Response to Recession

    Every year the OECD lays out five key areas for structural reform necessary for each member country (and the BRIICS nations) to spur growth. In this year's Going for Growth report, many countries get high marks for making key reforms that the OECD expects to provide more stable long term growth. The authors chalk up the changes as a response to "market pressures in the context of the euro area crisis and by discussions and co-ordinated efforts in multilateral settings such as the G20." Market pressures appear to have played an important role in the intensification of reforms, as indicated by the significant correlation between reform responsiveness and changes in government bond yields over the 2011-12 period: ● Euro area countries under financial assistance programmes or direct market pressures (e.g. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), are among the OECD countries whose responsiveness was highest (Figure 1.2, Panel A), and also where it increased most compared with the previous period (Figure 1.2, Panel B). Accession to the Euro area in 2011 – in concomitance with a steep recession – may have acted as reform catalyst for Estonia, who also ranks among the most responsive countries. ● Furthermore, as reflected in the comparison between simple and adjusted responsiveness rates, the crisis led most countries under financial markets pressure to enact reforms in traditionally politically-sensitive areas, e.g. labour market regulation and social welfare systems. ● In contrast, less progress has been achieved in other euro area countries, in particular those with a current account surplus (e.g. Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). Yet, reforms are also needed in these countries, in particular in areas that may help intra-euro area rebalancing, such as boosting competition in non-tradable sectors. ● Despite exposure to financial market scrutiny, Iceland and Slovenia have made no or very little reform progress in the areas identified in 2011. While market pressures have played a catalyst role, allowing for long-overdue reforms to be undertaken, some concerns may arise over the effects of reforms in a context of strong budgetary retrenchment and weak activity. Yet, it can be argued that some of the measures taken have already helped by boosting confidence and bringing some market relief. This may have been particularly the case of policy changes, such as pension reforms, that directly contributed to restore medium-term public debt sustainability, though reforms aimed at restoring competitiveness over time will also help to underpin confidence. Still, it is clear that the broader benefits from reforms may take more time than usual to materialize in the current environment, in part due to possible delaying effects from remaining dysfunctions in financial markets. It is important to avoid such delays eroding popular support and to ensure that legislated changes be effectively implemented in order to reap the long-term gains and preserve the positive initial confidence effects. Read the full report here .
  • Testing Okun's Law--Are Jobs and Growth Still Linked?

    In 1962, Arthur Okun wrote that "changes in the level of economic activity are associated with shifts in the composition of employment and output by industry." But the nature of the economic recovery in the U.S. (as slow as it may seem) has made reconsidering Okun's Law popular (if not necessary). In a post for VoxEU , Laurence Ball , Daniel Leigh , and Prakash Loungani examine whether jobs and output can now be decoupled: Figure 1 shows peak-to-trough declines in output for a group of OECD countries during the Great Recession against the change in unemployment over the same period. The correlation is essentially zero. In the language of economics textbooks, Figure 1 suggests a breakdown of Okun’s Law, the short-run negative relationship between output and unemployment reported by Arthur Okun in 1962. Figure 1. The Great Recession: Peak-to-trough output and unemployment changes (simple scatter plot) We believe the casual impression that "Okun’s broken" is misleading (Ball, Leigh and Loungani 2013). Two adjustments are needed to restore Okun’s Law (as shown in Figure 2): The first adjustment is to account for differences in the duration of the recessions; For the set of recessions shown in these charts, the period from peak to trough ranges from two quarters to seven quarters. As we show in our paper, Okun’s Law implies a relationship between the changes in unemployment and output only if we control for this factor. The second adjustment accounts for the fact that, historically, the coefficient in Okun’s Law varies across countries. Figure 2. The Great Recession: Peak-to-trough output and unemployment changes (with adjustments for duration of recessions and country-specific Okun coefficients) Read the full post here .
  • OECD Lays out the Case for Countries to 'Act Now' on the Gender Gap

    Take a look at this chart. What stands out to you? This chart shows the impact of having children on women's income levels across OECD countries. The extremes here are striking. What is going on in Italy and in Japan, for example? But overall the trend is, while not surprising, quite clear. In a new report called Closing the Gender Gap, OECD researchers point out the economic benefits to nations that improve the economic conditions of women at all stages of their lives. From the report: Greater educational attainment has accounted for about half of the economic growth in OECD countries in the past 50 years – and that owes a lot to bringing more girls to higher levels of education and achieving greater gender equality in the number of years spent in education. Greater educational equality does not guarantee equality in the workplace, however. If high childcare costs mean that it is not economically worthwhile for women to work full-time; if workplace culture penalises women for interrupting their careers to have children; and if women continue to bear the burden of unpaid household chores, childcare and looking after ageing parents, it will be difficult for them to realise their full potential in paid work. In developing countries, if discriminatory social norms favour early marriage and limit women’s access to credit, girls’ significant gains in educational attainment may not lead to increased formal employment and entrepreneurship. The issues are complex and tackling them successfully means changing the way our societies and economies function. Men and women have to be able to find a work-life balance that suits them, regardless of family status or household income. Sharing childcare responsibilities can be difficult in a culture where men are considered professionally uncommitted if they take advantage of parental leave and mothers are sidetracked from career paths. And if good quality, affordable childcare is unavailable, it may simply be impossible for many parents, especially those on low incomes, to work full-time and take care of their families. Access the full report here .
  • OECD Projects Hesitant and Uneven Recovery

    The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is projecting another year of slow growth--about 1.4% across OECD member nations--for 2013. But if all goes well, meaning Europe's struggles don't get worse, growth will rise to 2.3% for 2014. Here is a look the projections for real GDP growth across regions: From the OECD release: In the United States, provided the “fiscal cliff” is avoided, GDP growth is projected at 2% in 2013 before rising to 2.8% in 2014. In Japan, GDP is expected to expand by 0.7% in 2013 and 0.8% in 2014. The euro area will remain in recession until early 2013, leading to a mild contraction in GDP of 0.1% next year, before growth picks up to 1.3% in 2014. After softer-than-expected activity during 2012, growth has begun picking up in the emerging-market economies, with increasingly supportive monetary and fiscal policies offsetting the drag exerted by weak external demand. China is expected to grow at 8.5% in 2013 and 8.9% in 2014, while GDP is also expected to gather steam in the coming years in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. Labour markets remain weak, with around 50 million jobless people in the OECD area, the Outlook said. Unemployment is set to remain high, or even rise further, in many countries unless structural measures are used to boost near-term employment growth. The euro area crisis remains a serious threat to the world economy, despite recent measures that have dampened near-term pressures. Adjustment of deep-rooted imbalances across the euro area has begun, but much more is needed to ensure long-term sustainability, including structural reform in both deficit and surplus countries. The OECD provides a helpful summary of the report's key findings in this video: You can read more from the Economic Outlook here .
  • OECD Report on Long Term Growth Prospects

    Earlier today the OECD released a new report on growth prospects for the global economy, and for OECD member countries. The report projects the global economy to grow at a rate of roughly 3% per year. Emerging economies will continue to see much more rapid growth than developed economies. And that will usher in a significant shift in the balance of economic power over the next fifty years. The report makes this clear by showing how much smaller the U.S., Europe, and Japan shares of the global GDP will be in the coming years: Read the full report here , and watch this summary of the OECD findings:
  • OECD: Continuing Growth in India Will Depend on Continuing Reform

    A new report in the OECD 's Better Policies series focuses on growth in India. While commending India for making structural reforms that helped spark two decades of rapid growth, the report makes it clear that future growth will depend on additional reforms. One area to target, according to the OECD, is inequality. While India has made great strides in reducing absolute poverty, rising inequality matches that of other emerging economies like neighboring China: From the report: The Government’s recent Approach to the 12th Five Year Plan recognises that further lowering the incidence of poverty and reversing the pattern of growing inequality will require a comprehensive strategy. Many key elements of this multi-dimensional approach are addressed in the other chapters of this document, including policies to improve health, nutrition and educational outcomes (see dedicated chapters). In addition, labour market reforms could help reduce the segmentation between formal and informal employment. The tax system delivers only modest redistribution. In the context of the ongoing reform of direct taxation, increasing the tax free-threshold could increase the redistributive effects of the system. There is also scope for making social spending a more powerful tool to deal with rising inequality. Social spending, which amounts to about 5% of GDP in India, is low by international standards, including in comparison to other large emerging economies. However, India does not have much fiscal space to increase social spending, given the high general government deficit. Nevertheless, better targeting of inefficient subsidies offers a potential path for reform. Correcting the serious problems of “leakages” in the subsidies delivered through the public distribution system should be a priority. In addition, eliminating environmentally-harmful subsidies, which are poorly targeted to address poverty, should also be considered. Replacing these subsidies by more direct support to poor households can increase equity. Improving human development outcomes will also require specific and well-targeted programmes. One very important example is the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which provides 100 days or more of employment at a wage determined by the central government to any member of a rural household who wishes to participate. The government may consider maintaining under check the cost effectiveness of the NREGS, which is essential to realize its potential as a mechanism for helping those most in need. In particular, this requires securing that wages are set at a level around the minimum wage, which is very low in India. By limiting the risk of attracting workers with viable alternatives, this would reinforce the important selfselection property of the mechanism. Read the report here .
  • OECD Internet Economy Outlook 2012: Internet Firms Driving Job Creation

    Who are the job creators? Well, Google and Amazon seem to have been key hiring firms, according to a new OECD report. Those two giants led the way for their sector, as Internet firms increased employment by 29% last year. Overall, the top 250 ICT firms in OECD nations " boosted employment by 4% in 2010 and 6% in 2011." Here is a look at the trend: The hiring has been largely in the service sector, with manufacturing of Internet technologies trailing. And continued growth, according to the OECD, will depend on content development: Digital content is arguably the most important driver of consumer Internet adoption, with related revenues growing rapidly across all sectors. Advertising represents the biggest online market in absolute terms, followed by computer and video games, online music and film and video. In 2010, games led global consumer demand, accounting for an estimated 39% of digital revenues. According to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI), digital music worldwide accounted for 29% of recording companies’ revenues – more than four times that of the combined online revenues from the book, film and newspaper industries, despite these other industries being much larger overall. The last two years have seen significant growth in devices capable of accessing online digital content. Sources of content are also expanding, with social networking and new video and audio services helping to drive ICT industry growth and create new business models. Indeed, the switch to digital technologies has forced businesses in a growing list of sectors to rethink their business models and adapt to survive. Bandwidth usage continues to increase each year, with video and entertainment services demanding an increasing share on both fixed and mobile platforms. Sandvine reports that real-time entertainment applications have overtaken peer-to-peer (P2P) as primary drivers of network capacity in North America, accounting for 58% of peak traffic and almost 65% of peak downstream traffic in 2012. The streaming video service Netflix alone reached a peak of 32.9% of all US downstream traffic in the same year. Devices such as set-top boxes and gaming consoles are also helping to drive this shift to online entertainment. Cisco predicts that IP traffic will grow fourfold between 2010 and 2015 at an annual growth rate of 32%. Sandvine also reports that the majority of realtime entertainment traffic (54.3%) is going to streaming video and audio and that 15.6% of this traffic is viewed on mobile devices and tablets being used from home via Wi-Fi. Read an excerpt of the report here . The full report is available online through the OECD iLibrary here .
  • OECD: Europe Dragging Down Global Recovery

    The OECD released an interim assessment of the global economy late last week, and it contains little reason for optimism. Among other key predictions, it projects the U.S. will be in recession early next year unless "political parties agree on detailed medium-term consolidation plans that will avoid this outcome and reduce uncertainty regarding the fiscal outlook." But Europe gets the most attention--or blame--for the weakening global economy. For example, the lead line of the report reads: The global economy has weakened since spring, led by developments in the euro area where recession is again taking hold. Economies both inside and outside the OECD area have been adversely affected by the euro area crisis through trade and confidence channels. OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan addresses the European deadweight in this summary of the assessment: Read the full report here .
  • OECD: Canada's high standard of living dependent upon increased productivity

    Let's look north, for a moment. In its latest report on Canada's economy, the OECD credits Canadians with effectively "weather[ing]" the storm during the global economic crisis. The OECD gives Canadian policymakers high marks for a "timely macroeconomic response." And Canadian banks are cited for being more stable and prudent than their respective neighbors to the south. But the report gives some warnings, as OECD evaluators cite "sluggish" productivity as a cause for concern. Canada’s overall productivity has actually fallen since 2002, while it has grown by about 30% over the past 20 years in the United States. At the same time, income has shifted towards the resource-rich western provinces, while the regional economies of Ontario and Quebec are still adapting to increased external competition resulting from the high exchange rate. “Canada is blessed with abundant natural resources. But it needs to do more to develop other sectors of the economy if it is to maintain a high level of employment and an equitable distribution of the fruits of growth,” said Peter Jarrett, one of the authors of the study and the head of the Canada division at the OECD Economics Department. The OECD identifies two key priorities for meeting this long-term challenge. First, Canada needs to boost innovation. Canada has world-class research institutions and provides strong public support to business investment in research and development (R&D). However, the business sector devotes only about 1% of GDP to R&D, compared with 2% in the U.S. and more than 2.5% in Japan, Korea and some of the Nordic countries. Canada remains a low performer on business investment in R&D, even when the large share of natural resource production is taken into account. Here's a look at productivity in Canada relative to the US over the last three decades: Read a summary of the report here . For access to the Economic Survey of Canada (subscription required), click here .
  • OECD Report: Start up Faster Recovery by Encouraging Entrepreneurship

    " Start-up rates in most countries are slowly bouncing back toward their pre-crisis levels," according to new data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development . The number of startups basically dropped off a cliff in 2008 all across OECD countries. But while most countries are seeing the rate of new business creation recovering slowly, there are some exceptions. France, for one. France has shown the most spectacular increase in new businesses, due to introduction of a simplified start-up procedure (“regime de l’auto-entrepreneur”). Australia and the United Kingdom have reported robust growth in business creation in late-2011 and Norway has grown steadily, but the number of newly created enterprises remains below its pre-crisis level in most countries surveyed, according to the report. Access the data from the report, or read the report (subscription required) here .
  • OECD Economic Outlook: Increased Global Growth with Trade and Confidence Picking Up

    Confidence in the U.S. economy is growing. But declining confidence in Europe remains a drag on overall global growth, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 's latest economic outlook. Here is a snapshot of the OECD's latest growth projections for the U.S. compared to Europe and Japan. Trade appears to be a major factor in the global economy picking up steam. The concern is that if Europe slides too far it will set back all the momentum in global trade and growth will slow down again. Read the full OECD report here . And watch this summary:
  • GDP Growth in the G20 Slows

    GDP across the G20 was 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to a new report from the OECD . That was down slightly from the third quarter. Overall, GDP in the G20 grew 2.8% in 2011, down from 5.0% growth in 2010. Here's a look at the trend: From the OECD report: The G20 GDP aggregate masks diverging patterns among the world’s largest economies. In the United States, GDP growth increased to +0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with +0.5% in the third quarter. In India and Indonesia growth increased strongly, but slowed in China to +2.0%, compared with +2.3% in the third quarter. In Japan, economic growth decreased to -0.2%, following the strong rebound (+1.7%) in the third quarter. GDP fell by -0.3% in both the European Union and the euro area in the fourth quarter of 2011, the first fall since the second quarter of 2009. Read the full release here .
  • The Challenges of a Rising Global Middle Class

    One of the great positive global economic stories of the young 21st century--perhaps the top story--is the rapidly rising middle class in developing nations across the globe, especially in South America and Asia. But Johannes Jütting ,Head of Poverty Reduction at the OECD Development Center in Paris, warns us not to overlook the challenges that a burgeoning new middle class bring to nations and the global economy. Writing at Project Syndicate , Jütting argues that the middle class's "dreams" can become "nightmares" if policymakers get complacent and overlook the structural challenges that they must face: In today’s shifting world, with GDP in roughly 80 developing economies rising at twice the rate of per capita growth in the OECD, the club of the world’s richest countries, middle-class citizens paradoxically complain and protest regardless of whether fortunes improve or decline. Moises Naim, a former Venezuelan minister of trade and industry, even warns of a possible “emerging global war of the middle-classes.” While anger over pay cuts and unemployment make sense, it is harder to understand the current protests in fast-growing countries like Thailand and Chile, where standards of living are improving. What is going on? High growth in Asian and southern countries has meant greater export earnings and rents from natural resources. Unfortunately, this blessing can turn into a curse. In China, former Communist leader Deng Xiaoping’s vision – “let some people get rich first” – has led to impressive economic growth and poverty reduction; but it has also undermined the self-proclaimed “harmonious society,” as recent protests and labor conflicts indicate. Indeed, it is telling that, in the spring of 2011, Beijing’s municipal authorities banned all outdoor luxury-goods advertisements on the grounds that they might contribute to a “politically unhealthy environment.” Rising inequality, lack of civic participation, political apathy, and a dearth of good jobs, particularly for the young, comprise the Achilles heel of emerging-market countries’ current development model. A Gallup poll on subjective well-being in Tunisia and Thailand shows that, while income levels and social conditions in both countries improved between 2006 and 2010, life satisfaction dropped. Read The Middle Class Goes Global here .
  • OECD: German Economy Sound, but Future Growth Depends on Structural Fixes

    While Greece is the center of European concerns at the moment, it is Germany that seems to be leading economic policy. So the OECD 's release today of its Economic Survey of Germany is welcome. The big takeaway is that the German economy is indeed relatively stable. Part of the reason for that is that nation's public deficit is well below the OECD average. Take a look: But the OECD's survey warns that the Germany does have some fixes to make in order to maintain its current growth rate, as the economy makes the inevitable transition to a knowledge based workforce. From the survey summary: In a long-term perspective, Germany needs to transform its growth model to thrive as a knowledge-based economy. This transition requires policy efforts, investment and reforms in education, skills and innovation and continued leadership in green growth. But it also needs to work towards less burdensome regulations of services, increased labour participation of women and older workers and, thus, strengthening domestic demand. Germany should also compare itself with other economies in the emerging world, and be ready to compete with countries that have been growing at higher rates for quite some time now. Germany’s recent economic performance has been exceptional, with low unemployment and solid growth. Many other countries are looking at the German mix of labour market reforms, social partners’ constructive flexibility and sound fiscal policy,” Mr. Gurría said. “But moving ahead towards a knowledge based economy will require further policy reform. With the population ageing rapidly, more needs to be done to raise the medium- and long-term growth potential, notably through reforms that boost domestic demand, increase productivity growth and expand the labour force.” Access the survey here .
  • OECD's Better Life Initiative and Moving Beyond GDP

    Last year, the OECD launched a new initiative with the aim of moving beyond GDP as the key measurement of a nation's economic strength. The Better Life Initiative is designed to come up with new ways of evaluating the overall economic health of a nation and its citizens. OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría narrates a short video to describe the progress of the initiative over the last 6 months: The OECD now has an interactive chart that allows you to see where member countries rank in various categories: Read more about the Better Life Initiative here .