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  • OECD's Better Life Initiative and Moving Beyond GDP

    Last year, the OECD launched a new initiative with the aim of moving beyond GDP as the key measurement of a nation's economic strength. The Better Life Initiative is designed to come up with new ways of evaluating the overall economic health of a nation and its citizens. OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría narrates a short video to describe the progress of the initiative over the last 6 months: The OECD now has an interactive chart that allows you to see where member countries rank in various categories: Read more about the Better Life Initiative here .
  • OECD: Slower Economic Activity on the Horizon

    The OECD 's composite leading indicators (CLIs) "point more strongly to slowdowns in all major economies" than they were last month. Here is a look at the composite CLIs for September: Anything below that 100 marker points to economic activity below the long term trend. And most OECD countries are below the line now. The US, Russia and Japan remain holdouts, but Japan and US are still trending downward toward the 100 marker. The indicators for Germany might be the most disappointing, and underscores the struggles in Europe: See the specific CLIs for OECD countries here .
  • OECD: Signs of a Slowdown

    The OECD 's composite leading indicators (CLIs) are "designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend." The CLIs for August, just released today, are now pointing toward a global slowdown: Anything below that 100 marker points to economic activity below the long term trend. The August numbers show most countries in the OECD already below the line. India, Brazil and China are all below the line as well, with India and Brazil well below. The US, Germany, and Russia are looking better, but are also trending toward slowdown. Japan, is an outlier. Its CLI "continues to indicate a potential turning-point in economic activity." See the specific CLIs for OECD countries here .
  • OECD Report on High Unemployment and Long Term Unemployment

    We are taking a look at the OECD 's latest unemployment report. Believe it or not, a few developed countries have seen unemployment drop back to near pre-recession levels. Germany and Austria actually have lower unemployment than in late 2007. Spain is at the other end of the spectrum, with unemployment 12 points higher than pre-recession levels. The US, of course, is closer to Spain in this regard than Germany. Digging deeper into the unemployment numbers, some countries have a deeper, potentially more damaging problem: long term unemployment. From the report: The crisis has had different impacts on labour market outcomes across countries. This reflected differences in the degree of exposure to specific features of the crisis (e.g. the aftermath of financial and housing market bubbles) as well as differences in pre-crisis policy settings and measures implemented in response to the crisis. Concerns about unemployment persistence are particularly pronounced in countries that have experienced large increases in long-term unemployment. The longer individuals remain unemployed, the more difficult it becomes for them to find a job and the less they may try, a phenomenon referred to as unemployment duration dependence or hysteresis. In many countries (e.g. Canada, Denmark, Hungary, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States) the share of long-term unemployment has risen significantly during the crisis, albeit in some cases from a very low level (Figure 2). In other countries (e.g. Italy and France), the share of long-term unemployment was already high before the crisis, exposing them also to the risk of a persistent increase in unemployment into the recovery. Read Persistence of high unemployment: what risks? what policies? here .
  • South Africa's Ambassador to the US on the Economic Growth and Responsibility of South Africa

    The South African economy has performed relatively well in the aftermath of the Global Economic Crisis. Ebrahim Rasool , South Africa's ambassador to the United States, tells Knowledge@Wharton 's Steve Sherretta that the country's "robust" banking system deserves much of the credit for the economic growth. Rasool also discussed the somewhat unique position South Africa applies as a vital bridge for global business. South Africa links the developing nations of Sub-Saharan Africa with Europe and the West. It also, as Rasool discusses, carries a great deal of responsibility for the economic good of an entire continent.
  • OECD Health Data 2011 Report

    The OECD has a new study out on health expenditures across member nations. The good news: the report's authors expect health spending to either stabilize or become a smaller percentage of GDP in 2011. That would be a help to nations like the US, where the recession and slow recovery have bumped health spending, as share of GDP, up significantly. Here's a comparative chart of nations' health spending for 2009, the last full year for which the report has all the data: Read the report and access the OECD database on health spending here .
  • Evaluating the Benefits of Short-time Work

    In a post at Vox , Ecole Polytechnique Professor of Economics Pierre Cahuc , and Stéphane Carcillo , Associate Professor of Economics University of Paris, argue that short-time work can be effective in "combating unemployment" during global financial crisis, but that it is not without some problems. They say 25 of 33 OECD countries have used the practice of short-term work schemes: Cahuc and Carcillo write: European countries with widespread and generous short-time compensation experienced a smaller rise in unemployment in the recent recession than those without. The leading example is Germany that makes a particularly intensive use of a short-time work programme (the Kurzarbeit). This success has renewed interest in short-time work. But the idea itself is nothing new. The suggestion that it could be more efficient and more equitable to share jobs with short-time compensation rather than destroying jobs during has been repeatedly put forward by advocates of work-sharing. For instance, Abraham and Houseman (1994) argued that short-time work arrangements can be more equitable since they spread the costs of adjustment more evenly across members of the work force instead of concentrating it on a small number of laid-off workers. But short-time compensation programmes are no panacea. They can induce inefficient reductions in working hours. Moreover, workers in permanent jobs have incentives to support such schemes in recessions in order to protect their jobs. Employers also have incentives to support short-time compensation programmes in countries where stringent job protection induces high firing costs. Therefore, there is a risk attached with using these programmes too intensively. The benefits of insiders can be at the expense of the outsiders whose entry into employment is made even more difficult. Read Is short-time work a good method to keep unemployment down? here .
  • OECD Employment Outlook 2010

    Introducing a new report on employment yesterday, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development Secretary-General Angel Gurria said job creation must ow be a "top priority" for governments. The OECD's Employment Outlook sets the peak unemployment rate for OECD countries at 8.6%. In order to get back to pre-crisis levels of employment, these countries must create 17 million jobs, according to the report. Gurria: The recovery might be underway, but employment growth is still lagging. In the two years to the first quarter of 2010, employment in the OECD area fell by 2.1% and the unemployment rate increased by just over 50%, to 8.6%, equivalent to over 46 million people unemployed. This is a tragedy! The problem is that, in most cases, growth will not be robust enough to quickly absorb the large unemployment and under-employment accumulated in many countries. Unemployment is unlikely to begin falling until the end of this year. Thereafter, the pace of decline is likely to be modest. As a result, the OECD unemployment rate may still be around 8% by the end of 2011. This would mean that the OECD average impact of the 2008-09 recession on employment would be comparable to that of the deepest earlier recession in the post war period: the one following the first oil shock in 1973. Here's a quick look at the impact of the crisis on employment in a few selected OECD nations: Read the full report here .
  • OECD: Growth is Promising, But 'Serious Risks' to Recovery Remain

    The latest Economic Outlook from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) paints a largely positive picture for global economic conditions--but with a considerable warning. GDP is rising across the globe, and the OECD is raising its growth projections for 2010 and 2011. But debt clouds the otherwise sunny picture. From the OECD press office: Trade flows are rising again. Strong growth in China and other emerging markets is helping to pull other countries out of recession. But at the same time, the risk of overheating and inflation is growing in emerging markets. A boom-bust scenario cannot be ruled out, requiring a further tightening in countries such as China and India. The knock-on effect would be slower growth in other regions. Exchange rate flexibility could ease some of the pressure on Chinese monetary policy and provide more scope for addressing domestic inflation, says the OECD. Instability in sovereign debt markets poses another serious risk. It has highlighted the need for the euro area to strengthen its institutional and operational architecture. Bolder measures need to be taken to ensure fiscal discipline, says the Outlook.Several countries are already taking early action to enhance the credibility of their fiscal consolidation plans and this is very welcome. Here's a look at the fiscal balance that has OECD analysts concerned: And here is OECD Chief Economist, Pier Carlo Paduan discussing the risks to global recovery: Read more here .
  • OECD Study on Intergenerational Mobility

    The OECD has released a new study on intergenerational mobility. The pretense: in healthier, growing economies, a person's social status is less dependent on that of their parents. There are many factors that explain levels of mobility in OECD countries, but the key piece of the equation appears to be education, and how much your parents' education affects your education: Intergenerational mobility depends on a host of factors that determine individual economic success, some related to the inheritability of traits (such as innate abilities), others related to the family and social environment in which individuals develop. Among environmental factors, some are only loosely related to public policy (such as social norms, work ethics, attitude towards risk and social networks), while others can be heavily affected by policies. Typical examples are policies that shape access to human capital formation, such as public support for early childhood, primary, secondary and tertiary education, as well as redistributive policies (e.g. tax and transfer schemes) that may reduce or raise financial and other barriers to accessing higher education. Indeed, in an economic sense, intergenerational social mobility is generally defined in terms of the possibility to move up (or down) the income or wage scale relative to one’s parents. Such mobility is closely related to educational achievement, given the direct link between human capital and labour productivity. Here is a look at the link between earnings of fathers and sons in some selected countries. The height of the bar measures the "extent to which sons’ earnings levels reflect those of their fathers." Read the study, A Family Affair: Intergenerational Social Mobility across OECD Countries , here .
  • Jeff Frankel Praises Chile's Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

    Harvard Kennedy School professor Jeff Frankel , director of the Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research , has an interesting look at the popularity of Chile's outgoing president, Michelle Bachelet . Bachelet and her administration were deeply unpopular in the summer of 2008--pulling the lowest approval ratings of and leaders of Chile since "the return of democracy," according to Frankel. But with the global economic crisis came newfound appreciation for Bachelet and her economic policies. Frankel calls those policies--in which the government resisted spending off its commodity (mainly copper) assets during boom times, then spent the savings during the global recession--"a truly countercyclical fiscal policy." And he says Chile, which just joined the OECD, essentially moving out of the "developing nation" category, provides a strong example for other developing nations: Under the Chilean rules, the government can run a deficit larger than the target to the extent that: (1) output falls short of potential, in a recession, or (2) the price of copper is below its medium-term (10-year) equilibrium, with the key institutional innovation that there are two panels of experts whose job it is each mid-year to make the judgments, respectively, what is the output gap and what is the medium term equilibrium price of copper. Thus in the copper boom of 2003-2008 when, as usual, the political pressure was to declare the increase in the price of copper permanent thereby justifying spending on a par with export earnings, the expert panel ruled that most of the price increase was temporary so that most of the earnings had to be saved. This turned out to be right, as the 2008 spike was indeed temporary. Any country, but especially commodity-producers, could usefully apply variants of the Chilean fiscal device. Given that many developing countries are more prone to weak institutions (Greece comes to mind), a useful reinforcement of the Chilean idea would be to give legal independence to the panels. There could a requirement regarding the professional qualifications of the members and laws protecting them from being fired, as there are for governors of independent central banks. The principle of a separation of decision-making powers should be retained: the rules as interpreted by the panels determine the total amount of spending or budget deficits, while the elected political leaders determine how that total is allocated. This may be just the sort of structural reform needed in so many countries where the politicians have repeatedly proven themselves unable to maintain long-term budgetary discipline. Read Achieving Long-Term Fiscal Discipline: A Lesson from Chile here . (Hat tip: Mark Thoma)
  • OECD Economic Outlook: 'Tepid' Recovery and Rising Unemployment

    The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development 's latest Economic Outlook is out today, and it is full of some mildly good--if reserved--news. The big takeaway: the recovery is on, but it is slow and unemployment will keep rising across OECD nations at least until the middle of 2010 for the US, and likely later for Euro countries. Jørgen Elmeskov , head of the OECD's Economics Department, answers some key questions about the report's findings: Here's a look at the unemployment projections in the report: You can watch the OECD's press conference explaining the report, and access the full report here .
  • China's Growing Debt

    China's economy continues to thrive compared to others around the globe. The growth rate for the third quarter was near 9%. Great returns for 2009, and the near future looks even brighter to most economists and investors. But at Fortune/CNNMoney.com , Bill Powell writes of some concerns over China's escalating debt. According to Powell, the Chinese government has issued massive loans to boost infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate. The loans total $1.27 trillion, "up 136% from the same period last year." According to a recent analysis by Monaco-based hedge fund Pivot Capital Management, China's total lending reached 140% of GDP at midyear. That kind of lending makes China an "outlier" compared with other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries -- and is already well beyond the levels that "have led to sharp and brief credit crises in the past," the Pivot Capital report contends. Moreover, an increasing number of Chinese loans are being funneled into projects unlikely to generate an attractive economic return. From 2000 to 2008 it took just $1.50 in new credit to generate $1 of GDP growth. Now that ratio is 7 to 1. (In the U.S., just before the financial crisis hit, the ratio was only 4 to 1.) That's because the loans are creating huge amounts of manufacturing capacity -- which is unneeded in the bears' view. China's spare capacity in the cement industry, for example, equals the total annual consumption in the U.S., Japan, and India combined. So where will the growth come from? China's export markets are tapped out. Its domestic consumption, stalled at around a third of GDP, hasn't yet started to rise significantly. Additional manufacturing investment would be crazy, leading arguably to a global deflationary bust of epic proportions. Read the full article here .
  • Latest OECD Assessment Moves Recovery Up

    The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development's latest interim assessment of its World Economic Outlook moves the end of the recession up, while maintaining the position that recovery will be long and slow for its member nations: Given the positive economic news and based on incoming high-frequency indicators, OECD short-term forecasting models point to an earlier recovery than envisaged a few months ago (see table opposite). As a consequence, the unprecedented rate of deterioration in labour market conditions witnessed over the past year should ease. Nonetheless, numerous headwinds imply that the pace of the recovery is likely to be modest for some time to come. Ample spare capacity, low levels of profitability, high and rising unemployment, anaemic growth in labour income and ongoing housing market corrections will moderate any uptick in private demand. At the same time, the need remains for households, businesses, financial institutions and governments to repair the damage to their balance sheets. Yesterday we pointed to a VoxEU post on the idea that the global economic crisis can viewed as, in essence, a trade crisis . If so, the OECD assessment shows favorable data on exports: You can read the report here . Watch OECD head economist Jørgen Elmeskov present the report's findings at a press conference this morning by clicking here . And you can access materials (slides, charts) from Elmeskov's report here .
  • OECD Report: Beginning of Long, Slow Recovery in Sight

    The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 's latest Economic Outlook features something the organization's projections haven't shown in two years: projected growth revised upward. The US is among those OECD nations to have better news in the June Outlook. In March, the OECD report projected a 4% decline for the US economy this year. The June Outlook now projects a 2.8% decline. Large emerging economies all get strong projections: A recovery already appears to be taking hold in China, helped by major stimulus measures. Chinese GDP growth is forecast to be 7.7% in 2009 and 9.3% in 2010, an upward revision from the OECD’s March forecasts of 6.3% this year and 8.5% next year. In Brazil, economic activity is forecast to fall by 0.8% in 2009 and rebound to 4.0% growth in 2010 (March forecast -0.3% and +3.8%); in Russia, economic activity is forecast to drop by 6.8% in 2009 and climb by 3.7% in 2010 (March forecast -5.6% and +0.7%); and in India, growth is predicted to slow to 5.9% in 2009 before accelerating to 7.2% in 2010 (March forecast 4.3% and 5.8%). This interactive map shows the OECD Economic Outlook's GDP growth projections for 2009 and 2010: And here's Jorgen Elmeskov , acting chief economist of the OECD, explaining the report: More information on the Economic Outlook is available here .