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  • Unemployment Rate now 8.3%

    The unemployment rate continues to edge downward. The US economy added 243,000 jobs in January, dropping the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent, according to the Department of Labor . The private sector added 257,000 jobs during the month. Here's a look at the unemployment trends from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : Here are some of the key data from other areas we like to track in the monthly jobs report: The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 8.2 million, changed little in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. In January, 2.8 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in January, little different from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the full report from the BLS here .

  • Unemployment Down to 8.5%

    The US economy added another 200,000 jobs in December, dropping the unemployment rate to 8.5 percent, according to the Department of Labor . This capped off a relatively strong end of 2011, as the unemployment rate has dropped by 0.6 since August. The US added 1.6 million jobs during 2011. Here's a look at the unemployment trends from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : Here are some of the key data from other areas we like to track in the monthly jobs report: The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 371,000 to 8.1 million in December. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, little different from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 945,000 discouraged workers in December, a decrease of 373,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in December had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the full report from the BLS here .

  • November Jobs Report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 8.6%

    The unemployment rate dropped to 8.6 percent as the US economy added 120,000 jobs in November, according to the latest numbers released by the Department of Labor . With 50,000 jobs added, the retail trade sector helped push job growth, The professional and business services , health care and leisure and hospitality sectors all had job growth during November. With 5,000 US Postal Service workers losing their jobs in November, government employment continued to decline. Here's a look at the unemployment trends from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : Here are some of the key data from other areas we like to track in the monthly jobs report: The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full- time job. In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the full report from the BLS here .

  • August Jobs Report: Unemployment Rate Stays 9.1%, Jobs Flat

    The unemployment rate remains at 9.1%, as the US economy failed to add any jobs in August, according to the latest report from the Department of Labor . The private sectors continues to add jobs. Notably, health care, retail trade, manufacturing, and mining led the way in hiring, while the public sector continued to lose jobs. Here's a look at the unemployment trends from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : Here are some of the key data from other areas we like to track in the monthly jobs report: The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.4 million to 8.8 million in August. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, up from 2.4 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 977,000 discouraged workers in August, down by 133,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in August had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the full report from the BLS here .

  • NY Fed: Temporary Joblessness and Recessions

    We have news coming out of the Department of Labor this morning that jobless claims dropped again last week . This is good news, but while the unemployment rate is declining, it is doing so at a very slow pace. This is somewhat different from some past recoveries. And Erica Groshen , a VP at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York , points out one possible factor: temporary unemployment. Take a look at the percentage of overall job losses that temporary unemployment made up for recessions from 1973-1981compared to the Great Recession (as shared by Groshen on the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics blog): Groshen writes: During the last three downturns, temporary layoffs clearly played a much smaller role in the total rise in joblessness. I show three different bars because the beginnings and ends of recessions can be dated in different ways: official National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates, unemployment rate peaks and troughs, and temporary layoff troughs close to unemployment rate troughs. Any way you measure it, temporary layoffs accounted for much less of the peak-to-trough increase in joblessness during the 2007 recession than they did in downturns before 1990. In our Current Issues article on the 2001 recession, Simon Potter and I offer two explanations for the switch away from temporary layoffs. The first focuses on modern personnel practices, such as lean staffing. Here, firms use recessions as opportunities to cull their workforces, close inefficient facilities, or make other fundamental changes. Rather than just “weathering the storm,” they try to emerge stronger. The second explanation notes that shallow, short recessions may have less cyclical “collateral damage.” That is, the impact of a mild recession may be highly concentrated in firms and industries that need to change, with little impact on fundamentally healthy firms or industries. If healthy employers prefer temporary layoffs (because they want their workers back when conditions improve), then a mild, short recession would lead to proportionally fewer temporary layoffs. In the 2001 recession, the new personnel practices were prevalent, but the downturn was not deep or long. So, in our article, we couldn’t tell which explanation was correct. However, the fact that the severe Great Recession did not cause a big spike in temporary layoffs suggests that new behavior patterns of employers are likely to be an important explanation. Read Temporary Layoffs during the Great Recession here .

  • October Unemployment Report: US Economy Adds Jobs

    It looks like we had some real job growth in October. While the unemployment rate remained at 9.6%, nonfarm payroll employment went up, with an additional 151,000 jobs added during the month, according to the latest report from the Department of Labor . Here's a look at the unemployment trends from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : In some of the other areas we like to track from the monthly jobs report: The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 318,000 over the month to 9.2 million, partially offsetting large increases in the prior 2 months. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October, up from 2.4 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in October, an increase of 411,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the full report from the BLS here .

  • 95,000 More Jobs Lost in September, Unemployment Rate Remains at 9.6%

    The economy shed another 95,000 jobs in September, according to the latest report from the Department of Labor . The national unemployment rate remains at 9.6%. Private employers added an additional 64,000 workers last month, while government employment dropped 159,000. Here's a look at the unemployment trends from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : In some of the other areas we like to track from the monthly jobs report: The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose by 612,000 over the month to 9.5 million. Over the past 2 months, the number of such workers has increased by 943,000. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in September, up from 2.2 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in September, an increase of 503,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the full report from the BLS here .

  • Economy Loses 131,000 Jobs in July

    The Department of Labor has just released unemployment figures for July, and while the unemployment rate remains at 9.5%, the economy shed another 131,000 jobs during the month. The federal jobs sector took the biggest hit, with the loss of 143,000 temporary census jobs during the month. The private sector actually added jobs--71,000 total with the manufacturing sector adding 36,000. There are 14.6 million Americans classified as unemployed . Here's a look at the trend: As for some of the other categories we like to track: About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in July, an increase of 340,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in July, up by 389,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the full Bureau of Labor Statistics release here .

  • Jobless Claims Rise

    The Labor Department will release monthly unemployment data tomorrow. But there were some bad figures released today on jobless claims. From the Labor Department's news release: In the week ending July 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 479,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 460,000. The 4-week moving average was 458,500, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average of 453,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending July 24, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.6 percent. Bloomberg 's Bob Willis said the increase was "unexpected" : Economists forecast claims would fall to 455,000, according to the median of 43 projections. Estimates ranged from 444,000 to 470,000. The government revised the prior week's total to 460,000 from a previously reported 457,000. There were no special factors influencing last week's report, a Labor Department spokesman told reporters are the figures were being distributed. The timing of auto plant retooling shutdowns, which caused claims to gyrate last month, are probably no longer affecting the data, he said. The four-week moving average of claims, a less-volatile measure, increased to 458,500 last week from 453,250, today's report showed. Read the Labor Department's report here .

  • Unemployment Rate Dips in May

    The unemployment rate edged down slightly last month. With employment growing by 431,000, the unemployment rate went from 9.9% in April to 9.7% in May, according to data released by The Department of Labor this morning. Not startling changes, but it the figures do present a better employment picture than a year ago. Here's a look at the unemployment rate and payroll employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : Here's the latest on two areas we have been trying to track--marginally attached, and discouraged workers: About 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in May, unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in May, up by 291,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the BLS report here . And though it came out before the latest unemployment figures, Motoko Rich had an interesting and relevant article in the New York Times about how the actual employment picture may be rosier than the statistics are showing. Rich profiles several people who have recently worked to enter the labor force again, after giving up some months ago. Read A Jobless Rate Still Unaffected by New Hiring here .

  • More Jobs in April, But Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.9%

    The number of jobs went up by 290,000 last month. But the unemployment rate also rose, according to data released by The Department of Labor this morning. The unemployment rate had been at 9.7% from January through March, but is now at 9.9%: Here's the latest on marginally attached, and discouraged workers: About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in April, compared with 2.1 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.) Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in April, up by 457,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. Read the BLS report here .

  • Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment Duration

    Not only do more people lose their jobs during a recession, but the duration of unemployment also always increases, according to Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang of the San Francisco Fed . The number of Americans unemployed for six months or longer reached an all-time high last year. And Valletta and Kuang have analyzed whether the availability of unemployment insurance has a significant impact on how long people remain unemployed. For our specific test, we look at the increase in unemployment duration observed as the UI extensions were introduced and renewed in 2008 and 2009. We use the "expected unemployment duration" concept from Valletta (2005), which yields a monthly measure of the typical completed duration of unemployment for an individual who becomes unemployed in a particular month, based on the distribution of individual unemployment spells for the current and prior months. This measure more accurately reflects the overall duration of unemployment spells and changes in duration over time than do the average and median duration series published by the BLS, which are tallied from incomplete spells measured at the time each survey is conducted. Figure 2 Unemployment duration by reason (through December 2009, three-month moving average) Note: Authors' calculations from CPS microdata (seasonally adjusted). The solid vertical line indicates the recession start; the dashed lines indicate effective dates for UI extensions (through 12/09). Figure 2 displays the resulting unemployment duration series for job losers and leavers/entrants from 2005 through the end of 2009. The vertical lines identify the start of the recession and the dates for the initiation and renewal of the extended UI benefits programs. Unemployment duration rose slightly in the early phase of the recession and then increased sharply after extended UI benefits became available, reaching a high of about 35 weeks in mid-2009 before declining back to about 30 weeks by the end of the year. Notably, the increase in expected duration was similar for job losers, the group that is eligible for UI benefits, and leavers and entrants, who are ineligible. The similar increase in duration for the UI eligible and ineligible groups suggests that extended UI had only a limited impact on unemployment duration. As of the fourth quarter of 2009, the expected duration of unemployment had risen about 18.7 weeks for job losers and about 17.1 weeks for leavers and entrants, using the years 2006-2007 as a baseline. The differential increase of 1.6 weeks for job losers is the presumed impact of extended UI benefits on unemployment duration. It is straightforward to translate this increase in unemployment duration into an effect on the unemployment rate, based on their proportional relationship and adjusted for the share of job losers in overall unemployment, which was about 67% in December 2009. The implied increase in the unemployment rate is quite small, slightly less than 0.4 percentage point, indicating that without UI extensions, the measured unemployment rate would have been 9.6% in December 2009 rather than the observed 10.0%. Read Extended Unemployment and UI Benefits here .

  • A Good Friday Jobs Report

    There are still roughly 15.0 million unemployed Americans. The jobless rate remains at 9.7%. The number of discouraged workers--Americans who have stopped looking for work because they believe there are no jobs--is still climbing and has now reached 1.0 million. And the number of marginally attached workers--still looking for work but not counted among the unemployed because they did not search for a job in the past month--is now up to 2.3 million. And yet, for people looking for good news, any good news, on the jobs front, March was a good month. Take a look at the far right of the below charts: Today's report from the Labor Department showed that the US Economy gained 167,000 jobs last month. Not a lot, but a positive turn nonetheless. Read the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics here .

  • Unemployment at 9.7%

    The US moved closer to an official unemployment rate in double figures last month. The Department of Labor announced this morning that another 466,000 jobs were lost in August, bringing the unemployment rate to 9.7%. Here's a look at the two-year trend, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics : The unemployment rate for adult men passed the double digit mark last month, and now is at 10.1%. And the negative trend in discouraged and marginally-attached workers continued. From the BLS release: About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, reflecting an increase of 630,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, the number of discouraged workers in August (758,000) has nearly doubled over the past 12 months. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in August had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. So if recovery is indeed beginning, it is clear that it is a jobless one. Read the report here .

  • Inside the Employment Numbers

    The Labor Department released monthly unemployment numbers this morning, and there seem to be some good signs for the economy. The headline: nonfarm payrolls declined by 247,000 in July. That's the smallest drop in 11 months. Unemployment held steady at 9.4%. Not a pretty number, but at least for the moment, the leveling off shown below is welcome for the economy: This does not mean an end to the threat of 10% or greater unemployment, as the Wall Street Journal 's Brian Blackstone writes: Despite the surprising dip in the unemployment rate, a double-digit rate is still possible in the next few months. Not only does the economy have to stop contracting to add jobs, it needs to grow around 2.5% consistently just to keep up with new entrants into the labor force. Even if the economy does expand in the 3% range this quarter, as some economists expect, few expect that type of growth to be sustained given the headwinds consumers still face from stagnant incomes and lost housing wealth. Looking inside the numbers, there are some negative figures that continue to haunt. The number of marginally attached workers is now at 2.3 million, and the number of long-term unemployed--out of work for 27 weeks or more--is now at 5.0 million. But there is are some details that could represent more positive news to come. Average hourly earnings are up 3 pennies--to $18.56. And the average workweek grew 0.1 hour. A tiny figure, to be sure, but it is the first rise in that statistic since last August. If employers are increasing hours, that could be a sign that they are more confident moving forward. Read the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on the job numbers here .
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