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  • Real GDP Rose an Estimated 3.2% in 4th Quarter

    Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to an advance estimate just released by the Commerce Department . And the economy grew at a rate of 2.9% in 2010 after Real GDP decreased 2.6% in 2009. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis , personal consumption expenditures, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment were the primary drivers of the fourth quarter growth: Real personal consumption expenditures increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 21.6 percent, compared with an increase of 7.6 percent. Nondurable goods increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Services increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 10.0 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures increased 0.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 3.5 percent. Equipment and software increased 5.8 percent, compared with an increase of 15.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 3.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 27.3 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 6.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 13.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 16.8 percent. Read the BEA release here .
  • Visualizing Economics: Long-term Real Growth

    At Visualizing Economics , Catherine Mulbrandon 's latest work has been on real growth of US GDP since 1871. Here is one of her graphs: For a look at a log scale version, click here .
  • GDP Grew During 2nd Quarter, But Not By Much

    The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, according to data released by the Commerce Department this morning. That is a slowdown from the 3.7% growth rate during the first quarter (this is a revised rate, as the Commerce Department had previously put the growth of GDP for the first quarter at 2.7%). While the growth is smaller than many expected, it does represent the fourth straight quarter that real GDP rose. Here's a look at the trend, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis : And some explanation as to what drove the growth, and what held further growth back: The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in imports and a deceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in federal government spending. Read the release here .
  • 5.7% Growth for GDP in 4th Quarter

    The US economy grew at a rate of 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to data released by The Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning. That represents the highest quarterly growth in 6 years, and the growth was largely on improving inventory data. From the BEA release : The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in PCE. The Wall Street Journal 's News Hub team--in this case Kelly Evans , Evan Newmark , and Dennis Berman --breaks down the data in their AM Report:
  • Closer Look at GDP Numbers, Stimulus Effect, and Consumption Details

    The rise in GDP during the third quarter prompted the Room for Debate blog of the New York Times to ask whether the Obama Administration's $787 billion stimulus plan worked. MIT and Baseline Scenario 's Simon Johnson says the stimulus package worked on both an economic front and a political front (which then led to larger stimulus effects globally). Harvard University Economist Jeffrey Miron says no, look to monetary policy. Russell Roberts , economist at George Mason University, is sekptical of the stimulus plans power and suggests the growth might have occurred without it. And Mark Thoma says that "the stimulus programs in place now are probably too small." Read the full "debate" here . Meanwhile, James Hamilton had one of the most instructive pieces on the GDP numbers at the Econbrowser blog. Hamilton feels very positive about the GDP growth, and he neatly breaks down, and illustrates, the various contributors to the growth: Consumption spending is the biggest component of GDP and the main contributor to third quarter growth, accounting by itself for 2.4 percentage points out of the 3.5% total, and with consumer purchases of motor vehicles and parts alone 3/5 of the contribution of consumption. Next in importance was inventory rebuilding, which added 0.9 percentage points to the total and could make a significant further contribution in the quarters ahead. Housing is finally making a positive rather than a negative contribution, and nonresidential fixed investment was a smaller drag than I had been expecting. Imports grew faster than exports, though I'm relieved that trade overall is coming back. The government sector made a smaller contribution than one might have thought given the fiscal stimulus, in part because lower state and local spending offset some of the increased federal spending. For a healthier long-run growth path I'd prefer to see business fixed investment and net exports adding rather than subtracting. But, compared with what we've been seeing recently, this overall is a quite welcome report. Hamilton and Menzie Chin n track recessions through their Econbrowser Recession Indicator Index --a pattern recognition algorithm for identifying recessions that waits one quarter for data revisions and clear trend identification before making an assessment. With the third quarter GDP numbers out they looked at the revised second quarter figures. And they conclude that the recession did not end during the second quarter. Read the full GDP analysis here .