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  • Global Ethics Corner: 'When Banks Fail, Who Should Pay?'

    Here's a useful conversation starter from the Carnegie Council 's Global Ethics Corner . It sets up the key questions over the IMF, EU, and European Central Bank bailout of Cyprus. While Cyprus as a nation is rather singular, the issues raised by the terms of the bailout are relevant across Europe moving forward:
  • Unemployment Keeps Climbing in Europe

    Europe is still waiting for unemployment rates to plateau. According to Eurostat , the rate ended February at 12%, up from 11.8% in January. The unemployment rate across the EU is now 10.9%, up from 10.8% across the Euro area. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in nineteen Member States and fell in eight. The highest increases were registered in Greece (21.4% to 26.4% between December 2011 and December 2012), Cyprus (10.2% to 14.0%), Portugal (14.8% to 17.5%) and Spain (23.9% to 26.3%). The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (15.6% to 14.3% between the fourth quarters of 2011 and 2012), Estonia (10.8% to 9.9% between January 2012 and January 2013) and Ireland (15.1% to 14.2%). Between February 2012 and February 2013, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.7% to 11.9% in the euro area and from 10.1% to 10.9% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 11.2% to 12.0% in the euro area and from 10.3% to 10.9% in the EU27. In February 2013, 5.694 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.581 million were in the euro area. Compared with February 2012, youth unemployment rose by 196 000 in the EU27 and by 188 000 in the euro area. In February 2013, the youth unemployment rate was 23.5% in the EU27 and 23.9% in the euro area, compared with 22.5% and 22.3% respectively in February 2012. In February 2013, the lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.7%), Austria (8.9%) and the Netherlands (10.4%), and the highest in Greece (58.4% in December 2012), Spain (55.7%), Portugal (38.2%) and Italy (37.8%). Unemployment in Britain is now at 7.7%--the same as the U.S. (though that figure may change when we get the next jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday). Unemployment rate remains below 6% in Austria, Germany, and Luxembourg, and above 26% in Spain and Greece. Cyprus has 14.2% unemployment. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here .
  • Unemployment in Europe Keeps Climbing

    ***This post has been edited to correct an inaccuracy Unemployment is still rising in Europe. According to Eurostat , the rate ended January at 11.8%, up from 11.7% at the start of the year, and up from 10.8% in January of last year. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in nineteen Member States, fell in seven and remained stable in Denmark. The largest decreases were observed in Estonia (11.1% to 9.9% between December 2011 and December 2012), Latvia (15.5% to 14.4% between the fourth quarters of 2011 and 2012), Romania (7.4% to 6.6%) and the United Kingdom (8.3% to 7.7% between November 2011 and November 2012). The highest increases were registered in Greece (20.8% to 27.0% between November 2011 and November 2012), Cyprus (9.9% to 14.7%), Portugal (14.7% to 17.6%) and Spain (23.6% to 26.2%). Between January 2012 and January 2013, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.6% to 11.8% in the euro area and from 10.0% to 10.8% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 11.0% to 12.1% in the euro area and from 10.2% to 10.9% in the EU27. In January 2013, 5.732 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.642 million were in the euro area. Compared with January 2012, youth unemployment rose by 264 000 in the EU27 and by 295 000 in the euro area. In January 2013, the youth unemployment rate was 23.6% in the EU27 and 24.2% in the euro area, compared with 22.4% and 21.9% respectively in January 2012. In January 2013 the lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.9%), Austria (9.9%) and the Netherlands (10.3%), and the highest in Greece (59.4% in November 2012), Spain (55.5%) and Italy (38.7%). The unemployment rate remains below 6% in Austria, Germany, and Luxembourg. The rate in Spain and Greece remains above 26%. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here . ***In an earlier version of this post, we wrote that we were awaiting the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, and that it would be released later today (March 1). The March jobs report will be released on March 8.
  • WSJ: Why Most Euro Area Citizens Don't Want to Break Up With the Euro

    While the euro has been much maligned in the media, most citizens in euro area nations are reluctant to turn back from the currency. The Wall Street Journal 's Alessandra Galloni reports that many Europeans see the shared currency as a hedge against some corruption, and as important for civic, if not purely economic reasons:
  • Climbing Unemployment Rate in Europe, Youth Unemployment Close to 25%

    Eurostat released the commission's first employment report of 2013 today, and it is not pretty. Unemployment across the euro area rose to a new high in November: 11.7%: Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in eighteen Member States, fell in seven and remained stable in Denmark and Hungary. The largest decreases were observed in Estonia (12.1% to 9.5% between October 2011 and October 2012), Latvia (15.7% to 14.1% between the third quarters of 2011 and 2012), and Lithuania (13.9% to 12.5%). The highest increases were registered in Greece (18.9% to 26.0% between September 2011 and September 2012), Cyprus (9.5% to 14.0%), Spain (23.0% to 26.6%) and Portugal (14.1% to 16.3%). Between November 2011 and November 2012, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.4% to 11.7% in the euro area and from 9.9% to 10.8% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 10.9% to 11.8% in the euro area and from 10.1% to 10.7% in the EU27. In November 2012, 5.799 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.733 million were in the euro area. Compared with November 2011, youth unemployment rose by 329 000 in the EU27 and by 420 000 in the euro area. In November 2012, the youth unemployment rate was 23.7% in the EU27 and 24.4% in the euro area, compared with 22.2% and 21.6% respectively in November 2011. In November 2012 the lowest rates were observed in Germany (8.1%), Austria (9.0%) and the Netherlands (9.7%), and the highest in Greece (57.6% in September 2012) and Spain (56.5%). The unemployment rate remains below 6% in Austria, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, while the rate in Spain and Greece has topped 26%. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here .
  • Unemployment in EU Hits New High

    The unemployment rate climbed again last month after taking a brief pause in August. Unemployment across the euro area is now 11.6%, up from 11.4%, according to Eurostat : Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in twenty Member States and fell in seven. The largest decreases were observed in Lithuania (14.7% to 12.9%), Estonia (11.4% to 10.0% between August 2011 and August 2012), and Latvia (17.0% to 15.9% between the second quarters of 2011 and 2012). The highest increases were registered in Greece (17.8% to 25.1% between July 2011 and July 2012), Cyprus (8.5% to 12.2%), Spain (22.4% to 25.8%) and Portugal (13.1% to 15.7%). Between September 2011 and September 2012, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.1% to 11.5% in the euro area and from 9.7% to 10.6% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 10.6% to 11.8% in the euro area and from 9.9% to 10.7% in the EU27. In September 2012, 5.520 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.493 million were in the euro area. Compared with September 2011, youth unemployment rose by 164 000 in the EU27 and by 275 000 in the euro area. In September 2012, the youth unemployment rate was 22.8% in the EU27 and 23.3% in the euro area, compared with 21.7% and 21.0% respectively in September 2011. In September 2012 the lowest rates were observed in Germany (8.0%), the Netherlands (9.7%) and Austria (9.9%), and the highest in Greece (55.6% in July 2012) and Spain (54.2%). Austria, Luxembourg, Germany and the Netherlands all have unemployment rates below 6%, while the rate in Spain and Greece is above 25%. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here .
  • EU Unemployment Remains at Record Level

    The unemployment rate in Europe is at a record level. That's the bad news. The silver lining is that after several months of climbing, the rate finally went a month without rising. The rate for August was 11.4%, the same as in July, according to a Eurostat release this morning: The youth unemployment rate across the EU is now 22.8%. From the report: Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in twenty Member States, fell in six and remained stable in the United Kingdom. The largest falls were observed in Estonia (13.2% to 10.1% between the second quarters of 2011 and 2012), Lithuania (15.0% to 12.9%) and Latvia (17.0% to 15.9% between the second quarters of 2011 and 2012). The highest increases were registered in Greece (17.2% to 24.4% between June 2011 and June 2012), Cyprus (8.0% to 11.7%), Portugal (12.7% to 15.9%) and Spain (22.0% to 25.1%). Between August 2011 and August 2012, the unemployment rate for males increased from 9.9% to 11.3% in the euro area and from 9.6% to 10.5% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 10.5% to 11.6% in the euro area and from 9.8% to 10.6% in the EU27. In August 2012, 5.458 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.392 million were in the euro area. Compared with August 2011, youth unemployment rose by 164 000 in the EU27 and by 213 000 in the euro area. In August 2012, the youth unemployment rate was 22.7% in the EU27 and 22.8% in the euro area, compared with 21.5% and 20.7% respectively in August 2011. In August 2012 the lowest rates were observed in Germany (8.1%), the Netherlands (9.4%) and Austria (9.7%), and the highest in Greece (55.4% in June 2012) and Spain (52.9%). Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here .
  • Wolfson Economics Prize Winning Plan for a Eurozone Exit

    We have seen a lot of speculation over Greece leaving the eurozone. But we are not clear on how a country would go about such an exit. Roger Bootle , of the Biritish financial consultancy firm Capital Economics, has a plan in mind. In fact, he and his colleagues won a tidy sum for their plan, as it won the Wolfson Economics Prize . Bootle explains what he thinks is the best way for an EU state to leave the eurozone--and spark economic growth in the process--to The Economist 's Paul Wallace :
  • Marketplace Whiteboard: Eurobonds

    While some European leaders have been pushing the creation of EU-wide bonds--that is, Eurobonds -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been working to stop them . And so far she has succeeded. Paddy Hirsch takes to the Marketplace Whiteboard to explain why Eurobonds are a "dream investment" for most EU nations, but still just a dream.
  • Looking for Winners in the New Global Economy

    Looking for winners in the new global economy? Dani Rodrik is too. And he doesn't seem to be finding many. Writing at Project Syndicate , Rodrik tells us to expect lower rates of global economic gorwth for years to come, and that means few--very few--countries will be able to counter high debt rates. As for emerging economies, Rodrik isn't bullish on China, but he does see India and Brazil as relative winners. Rodrik: Those that do relatively better will share three characteristics. First, they will not be weighed down by high levels of public debt. Second, they will not be overly reliant on the world economy, and their engine of economic growth will be internal rather than external. Finally, they will be robust democracies. Having low to moderate levels of public debt is important, because debt levels that reach 80-90% of GDP become a serious drag on economic growth. They immobilize fiscal policy, lead to serious distortions in the financial system, trigger political fights over taxation, and incite costly distributional conflicts. Governments preoccupied with reducing debt are unlikely to undertake the investments needed for long-term structural change. With few exceptions (such as Australia and New Zealand), the vast majority of the world’s advanced economies are or will soon be in this category. Many emerging-market economies, such as Brazil and Turkey, have managed to rein in the growth of public debt this time around. But they have not prevented a borrowing binge in their private sectors. Since private debts have a way of turning into public liabilities, a low government-debt burden might not, in fact, provide these countries with the cushion that they think they have. Countries that rely excessively on world markets and global finance to fuel their economic growth will also be at a disadvantage. A fragile world economy will not be hospitable to large net foreign borrowers (or large net foreign lenders). Countries with large current-account deficits (such as Turkey) will remain hostage to skittish market sentiment. Those with large surpluses (such as China) will be under increasing pressure – including the threat of retaliation – to rein in their “mercantilist” policies. Read The New Global Economy's (Relative) Winners here .
  • A New Model for Fighting Debt: Treating Greece as a Charity Case

    Peter Nomikos is a very, very wealthy Greek businessman, and he believes he has a solution to his country's debt crisis. Nomikos, heir to a shipping fortune, has set up a charitable organization and is asking all Greeks to donate and pay down the countr's debt. We're not convinced this will work, but it is worth watching, and Nomikos deserves credit for at least trying another path. Der Spiegel interviewed Nomikos about Greece Debt Free , and asked him why his plan is better than just getting all Greeks to pay their taxes: Nomikos : The difference is that with taxes, you don't know what they are being used for. There is a lack of trust in the state, and I am not going to pretend that I can solve this cultural problem. But Greeks are also great patriots, and I think we should harness this feeling. A euro for "Debt-free Greece" is not a euro in taxes lost. It is complementary. SPIEGEL ONLINE : What is the reaction from the Greek government? Nomikos : Many people in the government and the diplomatic community find our campaign very encouraging. But remember, we are non-political and non-governmental. It is the first real show of a private Greek citizen to organize other Greeks to address our biggest problem. It shows to the world that we are taking initiative. SPIEGEL ONLINE : You established the foundation in the US state of Delaware. Why not in Greece? Nomikos : In Greece, I couldn't be sure the money would remain untouched. Also, being a US charitable foundation means that American taxpayers can deduct any donation from their taxes. It is an incentive for the wealthy Greek diaspora in the US. SPIEGEL ONLINE : And for other nationalities as well? Nomikos : Any friend of Greece is welcome. Originally, I thought mainly diaspora Greeks would participate. But there has been a huge amount of interest from the business community within Greece. Some companies are marketing their products with our slogan "Debt-free Greece" and pay part of the profits into our campaign. Read the full interview here .
  • Manifesto for a European Banking Union

    Some leading European economists are arguing that the euro zone needs a strong banking union in order to bring about a sustained recovery and a "stable financial architecture" throughout the EU. 100+ German, Austrian, and Swiss economists have now released a manifesto stating the case for establishing a unified European banking structure "to break the link between the funding of private banks and the public purse." Here is an excerpt, from VoxEU : In the course of the crisis, fiscal budgets are being tapped to refinance systemically relevant financial institutions. At the same time, financial institutions continue to play a central role in financing national governments, lending money to them and holding their debt. An unavoidable consequence is that bank failures have led to sovereign debt crises and sovereign debt crises have led to banking crises, leading to growing mistrust of both national banking systems and government finance. The situation is aggravated by the fact that international investors, driven by fear of total collapse, have withdrawn funding to struggling countries, both for governments and for banks. This has in turn led to a balkanisation of national financial markets and threatens not only the European monetary union but the European integration project as a whole. Only by breaking the link between the refinancing of banks and the solvency of national governments will it be possible to stabilise the supply of credit in crisis countries. If the refinancing of banks – and the insurance of bank deposits – can be made independent of the financial state of the respective domiciling country, national sovereign crises can be decoupled from the private sector financing. In this way, contractionary demand shocks induced by corrective national fiscal policy can be softened by a broadening of the supply of credit. A European backbone to the refinancing of banks will dampen the impact of the coming fiscal consolidation. An indispensable requirement for this is a set of uniform regulatory banking standards which are implemented by a single European authority. Deeper financial integration and a de-coupling of government and banking finance are essential elements for a more stable financial architecture in Europe. These steps are important for breaking the vicious circle between sovereign debt and banking crises. A monetary union with free capital flows cannot work reasonably without a unified banking framework. For this reason, the decisions of the last EU summit represent a move in the right direction. Now it is crucial to implement these decisions, in order to create a durable solution with uniform European structures. You can read the original manifesto, in German, here . For an English translation, click here .
  • Stiglitz: Europe's 'Temporizing' Approach Not Enough

    Joseph Stiglitz says the euro will "survive" now thanks to some of what Europe's agreed to in last week's summit, but he is not expecting the currency to live for long unless the "fundamental problems" of the euro zone are sufficiently addressed. From Project Syndicate : There was good news in this summit: Europe’s leaders have finally understood that the bootstrap operation by which Europe lends money to the banks to save the sovereigns, and to the sovereigns to save the banks, will not work. Likewise, they now recognize that bailout loans that give the new lender seniority over other creditors worsen the position of private investors, who will simply demand even higher interest rates. It is deeply troubling that it took Europe’s leaders so long to see something so obvious (and evident more than a decade and half ago in the East Asia crisis). But what is missing from the agreement is even more significant than what is there. A year ago, European leaders acknowledged that Greece could not recover without growth, and that growth could not be achieved by austerity alone. Yet little was done. What is now proposed is recapitalization of the European Investment Bank, part of a growth package of some $150 billion. But politicians are good at repackaging, and, by some accounts, the new money is a small fraction of that amount, and even that will not get into the system immediately. In short: the remedies – far too little and too late – are based on a misdiagnosis of the problem and flawed economics. The hope is that markets will reward virtue, which is defined as austerity. But markets are more pragmatic: if, as is almost surely the case, austerity weakens economic growth, and thus undermines the capacity to service debt, interest rates will not fall. In fact, investment will decline – a vicious downward spiral on which Greece and Spain have already embarked. Read The Euro's Latest Reprieve here .
  • Unemployment's Steady Climb in Europe

    Unemployment in Europe continues to climb. The unemployment rate in the euro area reached 11.1% in May--up from 11.0% in April. That's not a huge jump statistically, but it is significantly higher than the 9.5% unemployment rate in May of 2011. Take a look at this trend chart from Eurostat : Some of the raw figures are especially negative. The youth unemployment rate across the EU is now 22.7%. It is especially high in struggling economies Spain and Greece, where more than half of workers under 25 are unemployed. From the report: In May 2012, 5.517 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27 , of whom 3.412 million were in the euro area . Compared with May 2011, youth unemployment rose by 282 000 in the EU27 and by 254 000 in the euro area . In May 2012, the youth unemployment rate was 22.7% in the EU27 and 22.6% in the euro area . In May 2011 it was 21.0% and 20.5% respectively. The lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.9%), Austria (8.3%) and the Netherlands (9.2%), and the highest in Greece (52.1% in March 2012) and Spain (52.1%). In May 2012, the unemployment rate was 8.2% in the USA and it was 4.4% in Japan . Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here .
  • EU Summit or Global Summit?: Moisi on Why Emerging Market Leaders Must Watch Europe Closely

    The markets, or rather investors , are waiting for the EU summit to begin this week, in hopes that there will be some clear signs of what policies Europe's leaders will try next to avert a deepening debt crisis. Business and policy leaders in emerging economies will be watching closely as well. At Project Syndicate , Dominique Moisi says there is no room for schadenfreude now. In the past, emerging market leaders may have pointed to Europe's woes to stress their own success, they must be careful not to look at the situation without taking any pleasure from a crisis that is hampering their own growth. Until recently, Europe was a sort of mirror that confirmed for the major emerging economies the spectacular nature of their own success. They could contrast their high growth rates with Europe’s high levels of debt. They could oppose their “positive energy” with the pessimism dominating European minds. They were only too willing to advise Europe to work harder and spend less, as legitimate pride mingled with an understandable desire to settle historical scores and attenuate their legacies of colonial submission and humiliation. But, today, emerging countries are growing very concerned with what they rightly perceive as the serious risks to their own economies implied by excessive weakness in Europe, which remains the world’s trade leader. Moreover, Europe’s malaise threatens many of these countries’ political stability as well, given the close connection – especially in China – between the legitimacy of existing arrangements and the continuation of rapid economic growth. If the crisis in Europe were to cause annual GDP growth to fall below 7% in China, 5% in India, and 3% in Brazil, these countries’ most vulnerable citizens would be hardest hit. They were never part of the “culture of hope,” based largely on material success, that played a key role in these countries’ success. If social inequalities were to reach new heights, their frustration and resentment could manifest itself fully. In that case, Europe could suddenly become a very different mirror for emerging countries, revealing, if not accentuating, their own structural weaknesses. And that is why, just as Europe must save the Greek economy or Spain’s banks at all costs, emerging countries must do whatever they can to contribute to the rescue of the European economy. As Europe has learned, the longer one waits, the higher the cost – and the lower the chance of success. Read Emerging Markets’ Europe Problem here .
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