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  • Brookings Global MetroMonitor: Metro Areas Continue to Drive Growth Worldwide, But Fastest Growth is in Emerging Economies

    The Brookings Institution 's Global MetroMonitor for 2011 paints a picture of shifting strength from cities in the developed nations to Asia and South America. Not that the metro areas of the US and Western Europe are not still vital drivers of the global economy, but the growth was elsewhere in between 2010 and 2011. Note where much of the blue is on this map: The map is a helpful supplement to the report (click here to access the interactive map). As it shows, most of the strongest performing metro areas--90%, in fact--are outside of the US and Western Europe, while almost all of the weakest are in Japan, the US, and Western Europe. Alan Berube , director of research for the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program and one of the authors of the report, notes some of the key takeaways from the Global MetroMonitor in this video: Read the full report here .

  • OECD: Signs of a Slowdown

    The OECD 's composite leading indicators (CLIs) are "designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend." The CLIs for August, just released today, are now pointing toward a global slowdown: Anything below that 100 marker points to economic activity below the long term trend. The August numbers show most countries in the OECD already below the line. India, Brazil and China are all below the line as well, with India and Brazil well below. The US, Germany, and Russia are looking better, but are also trending toward slowdown. Japan, is an outlier. Its CLI "continues to indicate a potential turning-point in economic activity." See the specific CLIs for OECD countries here .

  • The IMF Growth Tracker Showing Moderating Growth Across Global Economy

    The IMF's World Economic Outlook shows a worrying global economic slowdown, led by Europe and the US. Among the many causes cited for slowing economic activity is the lack of demand in the private sector. The IMF's researchers suggest that they expected a quicker "handover from public to private demand." The tsunami and earthquake damage in Japan also bears some of the blame, as do disruption in oil supplies in North Africa this year. A lasting, and troubling factor is the lack of confidence on the part of consumers and businesses in developed economies of the West. The ripple effects of the dip in confidence are being felt around the globe. Note the impact on growth, as shown in the IMF's Growth Tracker : From the report: Worryingly, various consumer and business confidence indicators in advanced economies have retreated sharply, rather than strengthened as might have been expected in the presence of mostly temporary shocks that are unwinding. Accordingly, the IMF’s Growth Tracker (Figure 1.4, top panel) points to low growth over the near term. WEO projections assume that policymakers keep their commitments and the financial turmoil does not run beyond their control, allowing confidence to return as conditions stabilize. The return to stronger activity in advanced economies will then be delayed rather than derailed by the turmoil. Read the World Economic Outlook, and watch video of the IMF staff discussing their findings, here .

  • Michael Spence on Growth Dynamics in Today's Global Economy

    A. Michael Spence , who won the 2001 Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences, has focused his work in recent years on the growth and development in the global economy. And his latest book, The Next Convergence The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World , has quickly become a must read. Spence argues that the gap between developed and developing economies is narrowing for the first time since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. Spence spoke about the book, and about growth dynamics in the global economy, at the Carnegie Council . Here is a clip from that speech, in which Spence discusses the choices that nations must make to fuel growth in today's global economy: Watch the full speech here .

  • IMF Projects Global Growth of -1.3%

    The International Monetary Fund released its April World Economic Outlook report today, and economists and policy makers around the globe are squirming over its findings. The latest IMF projections show the global economy in its worst recession since World War II. The global economy is in a severe recession inflicted by a massive financial crisis and an acute loss of confidence. Wide-ranging and often unorthodox policy responses have made some progress in stabilizing financial markets but have not yet restored confidence nor arrested negative feedback between weakening activity and intense financial strains. While the rate of contraction is expected to moderate from the second quarter onward, global activity is projected to decline by 1.3 percent in 2009 as a whole before rising modestly during the course of 2010 (see right). This turnaround depends on financial authorities acting decisively to restore financial stability and fiscal and monetary policies in the world’s major economies providing sustained strong support for aggregate demand. The U.S. economy is projected to contract at a rate of 3.8% (-3.8% growth), while Britain is expected to see contraction of 4.1%. Japan is heading for growth of -6.2%. The Euro Area as a whole is projected to see -4.2% growth--Germany leading the way at -5.6%; -3.0% for France and Spain, and -4.4% for Italy. China and India are projected to see economic growth of 6.5% and 4.5%, respectively. The report does project global economic growth for 2010, but at a relatively slow rate of 1.9%. You can read the first chapter of the report here , or a summary from the IMF press office here . And watch Olivier Blanchard (at left), director of IMF's Research Department, introduce the report by clicking here .