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  • Real GDP Rose 2.8 Percent in 4th Quarter; 1.7 Percent for 2011

    Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to a new report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis . For the year, real GDP rose 1.7 percent. From the report: The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an acceleration in imports, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending. Here is a look at the ups and downs of real GDP over the last 4 years: Real GDP increased 3.0 percent in 2010. The BEA report lists drops in inventory investment and government spending--"the annual decline was the largest decline since 1971"--as primary reasons for the slowdown. Read the full release from the BEA here .

  • Goolsbee on Slow Growth in First Quarter of 2011

    Austan Goolsbee , chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers , was Hans Nichols 's guest on Bloomberg Television 's Bottom Line . He addressed the Commerce Department 's report showing that the US economy grew at a rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011 (down from 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2010): Note: We took the embedded video off this page, but you can watch the interview here .

  • Bad GDP Numbers, But Many See Good Signs

    The Commerce Department released some bad numbers today. The department's estimated GDP showed the US economy contracted at a rate of 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009. It was the third straight quarter in which GDP went down--the first time that has happened since 1975. While the data showed a decline was not the least bit surprising, the rate was. The Wall Street Journal reports that economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a 4.6% drop. And yet, as the Wall Street Journal 's Phil Izzo and Kelly Evans point out, it is possible to find silver linings in the Commerce Department's report. Christine Romer , chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, also makes a case that there are some good signs in the data. Here's what she told Reuters : "There's perhaps a little bit of a silver lining," Christina Romer, the head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told Reuters Financial Television in reaction to news the U.S. economy contracted at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter. "To the degree that that's a sign that firms are bringing down some of their inventories ... that combined with consumers coming back to life could mean we need to start to producing things again," she said. "It could put us in a position for perhaps a less dreary number going forward." Read the Wall Street Journal report on the GDP numbers here . And David Wessel's 12 Reasons to be (Economically) Optimistic here .

  • GDP: 6.2% 4th Quarter Drop

    At the beginning of the month, the Commerce Department predicted that fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures for 2008 would show 3.8% drop . This seemed low to some economists, and it turns out it was. Today Commerce released a revised estimate. From October through December, GDP dropped at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2%--the biggest one quarter drop since 1982. This from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's news release : The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Most of the major components contributed to the much larger decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter than in the third. The largest contributors were a downturn in exports and a much larger decrease in equipment and software. The most notable offset was a much larger decrease in imports. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.01 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, the same contribution as in the third quarter. Motor vehicle output subtracted 2.04 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.16 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Exports decreased 23.6 percent in the 4th quarter. They had risen 3% in the 3rd quarter. The one area with significant growth was government spending--up 6.7%. As noted above, the figures aren't a big surprise. As Barry Rithotlz writes in a short but clear post , " WHO THE HELL IS STILL SURPRISED BY THESE NUMBERS?!?" But Marketplace 's Steve Henn will have a report today on just how the Commerce Department got its estimates wrong. Local listings are here .
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