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  • EU GDP Drops Again

    We have some disappointing numbers out of Eurostat this morning. GDP across the Euro Area declined 0.2% in the first quarter. The year over year drop was 1.0%. France, the euro zone's second largest economy, saw its GDP drop for the second quarter in a row. The data for each country is available here .
  • Simon Nixon on 'What Comes After Austerity?'

    With Italy's new compromise government making moves to end austerity measures, the austerity backlash in Europe seems to be gathering momentum. Wall Street Journal Europe Editor Simon Nixon takes a look at what might be ahead for the euro zone. But he wants us to note that some European countries are now able to consider dropping austerity measures because, he argues, accepting them before has helped to lower borrowing costs. From the WSJ News Hub :
  • Federico Fubini Sees Ominous Signs in Europe's Imbalanced Markets

    As Italy's newly named president leads a public shift away from hardline austerity policies , noted Italian financial columnist Federico Fubini raises a provocative question: "Is Europe in depression?" At Project Syndicate , Fubini cites economic historian Charles Kindleberger in pointing to a "failure to 'maintain a market for distressed goods'" as a major reason the Great Depression was so severe. Fubini: Surely history is not repeating itself – at least not in the literal sense. European creditor countries today are not tempted by anything like America’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which crippled world trade in 1930. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, and Finland remain committed to the European Union’s single market for goods and services (though their national regulators hinder intra-European capital flows). Still, one cannot help but notice similarities with the 1930’s. At the time of the Great Crash, the United States and France were piling up gold as fast as the Weimar Republic was piling up unemployment. Today’s northern European countries are running up record current-account surpluses, just as some southern European countries are experiencing Weimar-level unemployment. For Italy, Europe’s fourth-largest economy, the current slump is proving to be deeper than the one 80 years ago. Meanwhile, huge savings and potential demand for consumer and capital goods remain locked up next door. How did this happen? As Kemal Derviş has pointed out, the cumulated current-account surplus of the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, and Germany is now around $500 billion. This dwarfs China’s surplus at its mercantilist peak of the mid-2000’s, when the G-7 (including Germany) regularly scolded the Chinese for fueling global imbalances. Read Europe in Depression? here .
  • Global Ethics Corner: 'When Banks Fail, Who Should Pay?'

    Here's a useful conversation starter from the Carnegie Council 's Global Ethics Corner . It sets up the key questions over the IMF, EU, and European Central Bank bailout of Cyprus. While Cyprus as a nation is rather singular, the issues raised by the terms of the bailout are relevant across Europe moving forward:
  • Unemployment Keeps Climbing in Europe

    Europe is still waiting for unemployment rates to plateau. According to Eurostat , the rate ended February at 12%, up from 11.8% in January. The unemployment rate across the EU is now 10.9%, up from 10.8% across the Euro area. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in nineteen Member States and fell in eight. The highest increases were registered in Greece (21.4% to 26.4% between December 2011 and December 2012), Cyprus (10.2% to 14.0%), Portugal (14.8% to 17.5%) and Spain (23.9% to 26.3%). The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (15.6% to 14.3% between the fourth quarters of 2011 and 2012), Estonia (10.8% to 9.9% between January 2012 and January 2013) and Ireland (15.1% to 14.2%). Between February 2012 and February 2013, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.7% to 11.9% in the euro area and from 10.1% to 10.9% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 11.2% to 12.0% in the euro area and from 10.3% to 10.9% in the EU27. In February 2013, 5.694 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.581 million were in the euro area. Compared with February 2012, youth unemployment rose by 196 000 in the EU27 and by 188 000 in the euro area. In February 2013, the youth unemployment rate was 23.5% in the EU27 and 23.9% in the euro area, compared with 22.5% and 22.3% respectively in February 2012. In February 2013, the lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.7%), Austria (8.9%) and the Netherlands (10.4%), and the highest in Greece (58.4% in December 2012), Spain (55.7%), Portugal (38.2%) and Italy (37.8%). Unemployment in Britain is now at 7.7%--the same as the U.S. (though that figure may change when we get the next jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday). Unemployment rate remains below 6% in Austria, Germany, and Luxembourg, and above 26% in Spain and Greece. Cyprus has 14.2% unemployment. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here .
  • Can Investors Spot the Next Cyprus?

    While we continue to watch events in Cyprus , MarketWatch 's Jim Je l ter looks at countries that might be "the next Cyprus." To be more specific, Jeiter notes other countries where the overall economy is highly dependent on the banking sector. Switzerland and the UK, for example, are two countries that are, as Jelter puts it, "most exposed to the ups and downs of their banks":
  • Watching Cyprus

    In Europe, all eyes are out to sea...looking at the island nation of Cyprus. On Saturday, Cypriot leaders agreed to a plan with EU authorities that includes a "one time tax" on bank deposits. This has set off protests in Cyprus and a lot of discussion, whether we will see a run on the banks there, and what the long term effects on the European and global economies will be. The Guardian has a running, minute-by-minute blog following events in Cyprus, here . But for those just getting up to speed on the news, we recommend a short piece from Antonio Fatas When it comes to the government of Cyprus, they are hopeful that everyone will understand that this was a one-time event and that the country can now move forward. From CNBC here is a quote from the Cyprus finance minister Michael Sarris: "Absolutely, there is no capital restrictions, people can move. We hope people will believe us, believe the collective leadership of the European Union, that this was a necessary step, but a single shot at the problem, and that from now on they can be very confident that nothing will happen to their savings." This will not happen, people will not believe them (not to mention the fact that the parliament has postponed the approval of the agreement that was scheduled to happen on Sunday). Prepared for several rounds of panic. I doubt the banking system will be able to operate without some capital restrictions over the coming days. On the other side, there are those who panic that this is the prelude of bank runs in Greece, Spain, Portugal or Italy. This is certainly a possibility and we have already seen withdrawals of deposits in some of these countries during this crisis, but it will take a lot of panic to produce a significant bank run. The reason is that there are still costs or barriers to produce a widespread bank run in these countries. The assumption that all the depositors in these banks will immediately open an account in Germany and transfer all their funds is (fortunately) not obvious. There are significant restrictions in opening of bank accounts even within the Euro area if depositors do not have residence in the country where the bank is established. Of course, there is always the option of hiding all your deposits under your mattress (or a cash vault) but both they represent a risk or they simply are not practical enough. Having said that, in the event where there is a strong perception that a similar "one-time-tax" is about to happen in other countries, these barriers will not be enough, so a bank run cannot be ruled out either. Read the full piece here .
  • Economic Policy Lessons From the Byzantine Empire

    At The Guardian , Peter Frankopan laments the fact that politicians in Europe are happy to use the term "Byzantine" but seem to know little about Byzantium, the empire that ruled much of Southern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East for over 1000 years after the fall of Rome. Frankopan, director of Oxcrord Centre for Byzantine Research, argues there are useful lessons for today's leaders, in both Byzantine successes and failures. There was no question that different parts of the empire could have different rules or different taxation policies: for the state to function with a single currency, there had to be fiscal, economic and political union; taxes had to be paid out from the periphery to the centre; and it was understood that resources had to be diverted from rich regions to those that were less well blessed – even if not everyone was happy about it. Freedom, grumbled one author in the 11th century, meant freedom from taxes. If Eurocrats could learn from the structure of the empire, then so too could they benefit from looking at how it dealt with a chronic recession, brought on by the same deadly combination that has crippled western economies today. In the 1070s, government revenues collapsed, while expenditure continued to rise on essential services (such as the military); these were made worse by a chronic liquidity crisis. So bad did the situation become that the doors of the treasury were flung open: there was no point locking them, wrote one contemporary, because there was nothing there to steal. Those responsible for the crisis were shown no mercy. The Herman Van Rompuy of the time, a eunuch named Nikephoritzes, was lambasted by an angry population faced with price rises and a fall in the standard of living, and was eventually tortured to death. Widespread dissatisfaction led to others being unceremoniously removed from position, often forced to become monks, presumably so they could pray for forgiveness for their sins. The crisis even gave rise to a Nigel Farage figure, whose arguments about why things had gone wrong sounded "so persuasive", according to one contemporary, that people "united in giving him precedence" and welcomed him everywhere with applause. He was a breath of fresh air at a time when the old guard were paralysed by inaction and by a dire shortage of good ideas. His message, that the current crop of leaders was useless, was hard to argue with. Read the full post here .
  • WSJ: 'What Germany Can Learn From China'

    Wall Street Journal economics editor David Wessel tells us we should stop looking at China as the big bad example of a country that is hurting other economies with exports vastly outpacing imports. China's trade surplus has been coming down. But Germany's has not. So Wessel argues that Germany should follow China's example, which would in turn help out its Euro partners and the global economy:
  • Unemployment in Europe Keeps Climbing

    ***This post has been edited to correct an inaccuracy Unemployment is still rising in Europe. According to Eurostat , the rate ended January at 11.8%, up from 11.7% at the start of the year, and up from 10.8% in January of last year. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in nineteen Member States, fell in seven and remained stable in Denmark. The largest decreases were observed in Estonia (11.1% to 9.9% between December 2011 and December 2012), Latvia (15.5% to 14.4% between the fourth quarters of 2011 and 2012), Romania (7.4% to 6.6%) and the United Kingdom (8.3% to 7.7% between November 2011 and November 2012). The highest increases were registered in Greece (20.8% to 27.0% between November 2011 and November 2012), Cyprus (9.9% to 14.7%), Portugal (14.7% to 17.6%) and Spain (23.6% to 26.2%). Between January 2012 and January 2013, the unemployment rate for males increased from 10.6% to 11.8% in the euro area and from 10.0% to 10.8% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate rose from 11.0% to 12.1% in the euro area and from 10.2% to 10.9% in the EU27. In January 2013, 5.732 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU27, of whom 3.642 million were in the euro area. Compared with January 2012, youth unemployment rose by 264 000 in the EU27 and by 295 000 in the euro area. In January 2013, the youth unemployment rate was 23.6% in the EU27 and 24.2% in the euro area, compared with 22.4% and 21.9% respectively in January 2012. In January 2013 the lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.9%), Austria (9.9%) and the Netherlands (10.3%), and the highest in Greece (59.4% in November 2012), Spain (55.5%) and Italy (38.7%). The unemployment rate remains below 6% in Austria, Germany, and Luxembourg. The rate in Spain and Greece remains above 26%. Here's a look at the breakdown of unemployment by country: Read the full report here . ***In an earlier version of this post, we wrote that we were awaiting the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, and that it would be released later today (March 1). The March jobs report will be released on March 8.
  • The Price of Germany's High Savings Rate

    In a piece for Project Syndicate , Michael Pettis , professor of finance at Peking University, reminds us that the act of rebalancing in Europe requires the work of both debtor and creditor economies. Most global financial crises, Pettis notes, "were the result of strains created by the recycling of capital from countries with high savings to those with low savings." A country’s overall consumption rate is, of course, the flip side of its savings rate. Apart from demographics, which change slowly, three factors largely explain differences in national consumption rates. First and foremost is the share of national income that households retain. In countries like the United States, where households keep a large share of what they produce, consumption rates tend to be high relative to GDP. In countries like China and Germany, however, where businesses and the government retain a disproportionate share, household consumption rates may be correspondingly low. The second factor is income inequality. As people become richer, their consumption grows more slowly than their wealth. As inequality rises, consumption rates generally drop and savings rates generally rise. Finally, there is households’ willingness to borrow to increase consumption, which is usually driven by perceptions about trends in household wealth. In Spain, for example, as the value of stocks, bonds, and real estate soared prior to 2008, Spaniards took advantage of their growing wealth to borrow to increase consumption. But this is not the whole story. Consumption rates can also be driven by foreign policies that affect these three factors. For example, an agreement in the late 1990’s among the German government, corporations, and labor unions, which was aimed at generating domestic employment by restraining the wage share of GDP, automatically forced up the country’s savings rate. Germany’s large trade deficits in the decade before 2000 subsequently swung to large surpluses, which were balanced by corresponding deficits in countries like Spain. Pettis uses Germany and Spain as examples here. While the situation in Europe may be more pronounced at the moment, Pettis's point is a larger, more global one, about the nature of the relationship between high-saving and low-saving economies. Read The Saver's Dilemma here .
  • OECD Commends Member Nations for Structural Reforms as Response to Recession

    Every year the OECD lays out five key areas for structural reform necessary for each member country (and the BRIICS nations) to spur growth. In this year's Going for Growth report, many countries get high marks for making key reforms that the OECD expects to provide more stable long term growth. The authors chalk up the changes as a response to "market pressures in the context of the euro area crisis and by discussions and co-ordinated efforts in multilateral settings such as the G20." Market pressures appear to have played an important role in the intensification of reforms, as indicated by the significant correlation between reform responsiveness and changes in government bond yields over the 2011-12 period: ● Euro area countries under financial assistance programmes or direct market pressures (e.g. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), are among the OECD countries whose responsiveness was highest (Figure 1.2, Panel A), and also where it increased most compared with the previous period (Figure 1.2, Panel B). Accession to the Euro area in 2011 – in concomitance with a steep recession – may have acted as reform catalyst for Estonia, who also ranks among the most responsive countries. ● Furthermore, as reflected in the comparison between simple and adjusted responsiveness rates, the crisis led most countries under financial markets pressure to enact reforms in traditionally politically-sensitive areas, e.g. labour market regulation and social welfare systems. ● In contrast, less progress has been achieved in other euro area countries, in particular those with a current account surplus (e.g. Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). Yet, reforms are also needed in these countries, in particular in areas that may help intra-euro area rebalancing, such as boosting competition in non-tradable sectors. ● Despite exposure to financial market scrutiny, Iceland and Slovenia have made no or very little reform progress in the areas identified in 2011. While market pressures have played a catalyst role, allowing for long-overdue reforms to be undertaken, some concerns may arise over the effects of reforms in a context of strong budgetary retrenchment and weak activity. Yet, it can be argued that some of the measures taken have already helped by boosting confidence and bringing some market relief. This may have been particularly the case of policy changes, such as pension reforms, that directly contributed to restore medium-term public debt sustainability, though reforms aimed at restoring competitiveness over time will also help to underpin confidence. Still, it is clear that the broader benefits from reforms may take more time than usual to materialize in the current environment, in part due to possible delaying effects from remaining dysfunctions in financial markets. It is important to avoid such delays eroding popular support and to ensure that legislated changes be effectively implemented in order to reap the long-term gains and preserve the positive initial confidence effects. Read the full report here .
  • WSJ: Why Most Euro Area Citizens Don't Want to Break Up With the Euro

    While the euro has been much maligned in the media, most citizens in euro area nations are reluctant to turn back from the currency. The Wall Street Journal 's Alessandra Galloni reports that many Europeans see the shared currency as a hedge against some corruption, and as important for civic, if not purely economic reasons:
  • Roubini's Outlook for 2013: "Downside risks to the global economy are gathering force"

    As President Obama launches into his second term, getting the economy moving remains among his top priorities. It is not the challenge he faced four years ago, when we were just months removed from the near global economic meltdown of September 2008. Rather, it may look very similar to last year: slow growth around the globe. But, according to Nouriel Roubini , there will be some "important differences , " that might lead us to prefer slow growth to the alternative. In a piece for Project Syndicate , Roubini raises concern that, "given synchronized fiscal retrenchment in most advanced economies, another year of mediocre growth could give way to outright contraction in some countries." With growth anemic in most advanced economies, the rally in risky assets that began in the second half of 2012 has not been driven by improved fundamentals, but rather by fresh rounds of unconventional monetary policy. Most major advanced economies’ central banks – the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank – have engaged in some form of quantitative easing, and they are now likely to be joined by the Bank of Japan, which is being pushed toward more unconventional policies by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s new government. Moreover, several risks lie ahead. First, America’s mini-deal on taxes has not steered it fully away from the fiscal cliff. Sooner or later, another ugly fight will take place on the debt ceiling, the delayed sequester of spending, and a congressional “continuing spending resolution” (an agreement to allow the government to continue functioning in the absence of an appropriations law). Markets may become spooked by another fiscal cliffhanger. And even the current mini-deal implies a significant amount of drag – about 1.4% of GDP – on an economy that has grown at barely a 2% rate over the last few quarters. Second, while the ECB’s actions have reduced tail risks in the eurozone – a Greek exit and/or loss of market access for Italy and Spain – the monetary union’s fundamental problems have not been resolved. Together with political uncertainty, they will re-emerge with full force in the second half of the year. After all, stagnation and outright recession – exacerbated by front-loaded fiscal austerity, a strong euro, and an ongoing credit crunch – remain Europe’s norm. As a result, large – and potentially unsustainable – stocks of private and public debt remain. Moreover, given aging populations and low productivity growth, potential output is likely to be eroded in the absence of more aggressive structural reforms to boost competitiveness, leaving the private sector no reason to finance chronic current-account deficits. Read The Economic Fundamentals of 2013 here .
  • Mercer: Infrastructure Rankings for Cities Around the World

    As part of the firm's annual Quality of Living survey, Mercer researchers examine the infrastructure in cities around the globe: "electricity supply, water availability, telephone and mail services, public transportation, traffic congestion and the range of international flights from local airports." These aren't simply quality of living issues, but can also have a direct effect on the efficiency of doing business. Here is a look at some of the top and bottom ranking cities (see full size graphic here ):
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