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  • Jack Cassidy on What S&P Got Right

    While Moody 's has decided to keep the US's credit rating at AAA, the focus today remains on Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade the rating to AA+. There is plenty of skepticism about the S&P decision. Paul Krugman points out S&P's questionable track record, here . And Economics of Contempt argues that the agency was "embarrassingly wrong," here . One member of the Econoblogsphere who is saying the S&P downgrade makes sense is The New Yorker 's John Cassidy . Cassidy does not take issue with those who say that S&P's decision was a political one. In fact, he argues that's the who point: For years, the attitude in the markets has been that the two parties in Washington will eventually make the necessary policy changes, even if it takes a big selloff in the bond market to make them do it. I shared this cynical but ultimately optimistic view, and so did S. & P. and other ratings agencies. But the rise of the Tea Party and a further lurch to the right in Congress has changed the political calculus. With the country facing an imminent threat of default, the Republican Party showed itself unwilling to countenance any tax increases whatsoever, even ones that wouldn’t have gone into effect until 2013 at the earliest. Many Democrats, meanwhile, balked at the very idea of discussing changes to entitlement programs. The President, while calling for a “balanced approach,” seemed virtually powerless. What ground is there for assuming that sanity will eventually prevail? Some, certainly. But enough to support an AAA rating? The fiscal arithmetic is pretty clear. According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office and other authorities, perhaps half of the current budget deficit is due to the recession, which caused tax payments to fall and unemployment benefits and other expenses to rise. But that leaves a structural deficit of perhaps four or five per cent of G.D.P., which will remain even after the economy returns to full employment. To prevent the country’s debts from exploding over the next twenty or thirty years, this structural deficit needs to be brought down to two or three per cent, at which point the long-term debt-to-G.D.P. ratio would stabilize. Read Why S. & P. Got the U.S. Government Downgrade Right here . We also recommend Cassidy's Comment piece in the latest New Yorker , which is now available online.
  • Alice Rivlin: 'Sensible Fiscal Policy' Needed

    The current political debate over whether, and under what conditions, to raise the debt ceilings may be more than just political theater. Alice Rivlin , senior fellow at Brookings , expects the debt ceiling will be raised. "In an ideal world," Rivlin argues, we would not have a debt ceiling, but rather "sensible fiscal policy that did not get us into this fix." What's really important, Rivlin argues, is setting a course to pay down the deficit. And that requires more revenue and less spending.
  • Bernanke: ''Economic outlook remains unusually uncertain"

    Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke 's appearance before Congress yesterday seems to have had an effect on markets in the US and abroad . With the US economy as it now stands, Bernanke spoke in measured terms about recovery, with jobs and consumer spending as leading reasons for the üncertain"future": An important drag on household spending is the slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects. After two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially. In all likelihood, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009. Moreover, nearly half of the unemployed have been out of work for longer than six months. Long-term unemployment not only imposes exceptional near-term hardships on workers and their families, it also erodes skills and may have long-lasting effects on workers' employment and earnings prospects. In the business sector, investment in equipment and software appears to have increased rapidly in the first half of the year, in part reflecting capital outlays that had been deferred during the downturn and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment. In contrast, spending on nonresidential structures--weighed down by high vacancy rates and tight credit--has continued to contract, though some indicators suggest that the rate of decline may be slowing. Both U.S. exports and U.S. imports have been expanding, reflecting growth in the global economy and the recovery of world trade. Stronger exports have in turn helped foster growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Inflation has remained low. The price index for personal consumption expenditures appears to have risen at an annual rate of less than 1 percent in the first half of the year. Although overall inflation has fluctuated, partly reflecting changes in energy prices, by a number of measures underlying inflation has trended down over the past two years. The slack in labor and product markets has damped wage and price pressures, and rapid increases in productivity have further reduced producers' unit labor costs. Read the full speech here .
  • House Majority Leader Offers Warning on Budget, and Blueprint for Bipartisan Solution

    Congress went away for its midsummer break this weekend with a lot of unfinished business on the table. Organizations like Third Way see the problem as a lack of bipartisanship in Washington these days. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) spoke before Third Way in late June and said to be prepared for no federal budget or progress on deficit reduction unless members of both parties came together with a serious plan. Here´s a brief excerpt: The full discussion is long, but worth a viewing as it presents one idea for how Congress might address budget and deficit issues. We won´t argue whether Hoyer´s approach is the right one, nor whether it is realistic to think members of both parties could come together in such a fashion. Click here for the full event video.
  • Gordon Brown Speaks Out on Protectionism

    British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is in Washington today, the first official visit of a foreign leader to the nation's capital in the Obama presidency. Brown's address to Congress was full of economic talk. He urged US policymakers to solve the credit crisis and clean up the banking system, saying "A bad bank anywhere is a threat to good banks anywhere." And he implored Congress to avoid protectionism . Here's an excerpt from his speech at the Capitol:
  • Bernanke Defends Fed's Actions

    There has been plenty of bad news in recent days, from markets tumbling to scary figures about "underwater" mortgages , but Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke says things would be worse if not for the Fed's actions over the last six months: The measures taken since September by the Federal Reserve, other U.S. government entities, and foreign governments have helped improve conditions in some financial markets. In particular, strains in short-term funding markets have eased notably since last fall, and London interbank offered rates, or Libor--which influence the interest rates faced by many U.S. households and businesses--have decreased sharply. Conditions in the commercial paper market also have improved, even for lower-rated borrowers, and the sharp outflows from money market mutual funds in September have been replaced by modest inflows. In the market for conforming mortgages, interest rates have fallen nearly 1 percentage point since the announcement of our intention to purchase agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Corporate risk spreads have also declined somewhat from extraordinarily high levels, although bond spreads remain elevated by historical standards. Likely spurred by the improvements in pricing and liquidity, issuance of investment-grade corporate bonds has been strong, and speculative-grade issuance, which was near zero in the fourth quarter, has picked up somewhat more recently. Nevertheless, significant stresses persist in many markets. For example, most securitization markets remain closed, and some financial institutions remain under pressure. That is from Bernanke's testimony before the Senate Budget Committee yesterday. Here is his full opening statment: You can read a transcript of Bernanke's testimony here .
  • Stimulus Debate at Larry King Live

    Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Chair of the House Finance Committee Barney Frank (D-MA) debated the merits of the stimulus bill last night, with John King filling in for Larry King on CNN.
  • Stimulus Debate Excerpt

    House leaders decided to push up debate over the economic stimulus bill to today , so it's on. Here's an excerpt of Reps. Dodgett (D-TX), Dreier (R-CA), and McGovern (D-MA) mixing it up on the House floor this afternoon. Dreier takes the discussion to 1981 and Reagan's challenges at the dawn of his presidency. With so much discussion of FDR here and elsewhere, it is an interesting place to turn. We're curious to know the strongest parallels, and welcome your comments.