The first work week of 2012 is now underway. As we look ahead to the year ahead, the state of the economy is first on foremost on our minds. Boston Globe Correspondent Jay Fitzgerald offers up no predictions, but rather a point-counterpoint list of reasons to be optimistic, and reasons to be pessimistic, about the economy in 2012. The six reasons to be optimistic:
Momentum--that is, 2011 ended with some;
Jobs--improving data on that front;
Corporate profits--slowed down in 2011, so maybe companies will need to hire in order to get the growth engine humming;
Inflation--"remains in check";
Exports--the weak dollar is helping sales of US exports;
and Technology--high-tech/scientific sectors remain strong.
Before you get too excited, here are the reasons Fitzgerald sites for pessimism:
Europe--the old continent starts off 2012 with a lot of uncertainty;
The job market--improving, yes, but not quickly enough.
Housing--a big problem far from solved;
Politics--with an election this year, it is hard to imagine policymakers in Washington coming together on any bold fixes;
Energy--oil is back near $100/barrel;
and Banks--American banks are better off than their European counterparts, but that is not saying much.
What is Fitzgerald's list missing? And do you see the factors on one list beating out those on the other?
Read Will 2012 be the year for economic optimists? here.
Posted
01-02-2012 9:00 AM
by
Graham Griffith
Filed under: jobs, energy, exports, banks, housing, inflation, Economic Outlook, Europe, high tech, optimism in the economy, tech, oil, pessimism, boston globe, corporate profits, jay fitzgerald