IMF's LaGarde Issues Another Warning on State of Global Economy

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IMF Managing Director Christine LaGarde is in China today.  Speaking at the International Finance Forum, she said the global economy has entered "a dangerous and uncertain phase":

Later in the speech, LaGarde addressed China's economy directly.  Overall, she gave it good marks.  But she warned against complacency and said that all nations need to recognize that they are part of a global economy and that no country is immune from the effects of problems elsewhere, even halfway around the globe:

It is on the right path in terms of reducing domestic vulnerabilities—by moderating the pace of credit growth, increasing provisioning and capital, and expanding scope of macroprudential policies. There is still scope for using monetary policy to restrain credit growth.

Fiscal policy is appropriately moving back to balance. But if the growth outlook deteriorates significantly, it could become the first line of defense, given ample fiscal space and capacity to deploy resources quickly.
China is also on the right path in terms of reorienting the economy towards domestic demand. As Laozi said, “a journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step”. Indeed, China has already made good progress on the road to rebalancing.

The current account surplus has fallen from an all-time high of 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to just over 5 percent last year. While some of this comes from weak global demand, some of it also comes from higher imports—which helps the global economy.

Now is the time to move further from exports and investment toward consumption—including by further boosting household incomes and expanding social safety nets. Reform of the financial system continues to be important and, as we have said before, China also needs a stronger currency in real effective terms.

Read the full speech here.


Posted 11-09-2011 8:44 AM by Graham Griffith
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