Paul Volcker on 'A Little Inflation'

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In a New York Times op-ed, Paul Volcker expresses some concern that members of the Federal Reserv's Open Market Committee are starting to find the prospects of "a little inflation" tempting.  The thinking that concerns Volcker is that 4 or 5% inflation might have a stimulating effect for the economy.  Not so, says Volcker:

My point is not that we are on the edge today of serious inflation, which is unlikely if the Fed remains vigilant. Rather, the danger is that if, in desperation, we turn to deliberately seeking inflation to solve real problems — our economic imbalances, sluggish productivity, and excessive leverage — we would soon find that a little inflation doesn’t work. Then the instinct will be to do a little more — a seemingly temporary and “reasonable” 4 percent becomes 5, and then 6 and so on.

What we know, or should know, from the past is that once inflation becomes anticipated and ingrained — as it eventually would — then the stimulating effects are lost. Once an independent central bank does not simply tolerate a low level of inflation as consistent with “stability,” but invokes inflation as a policy, it becomes very difficult to eliminate.

It is precisely the common experience with this inflation dynamic that has led central banks around the world to place prime importance on price stability. They do so not at the expense of a strong productive economy. They do it because experience confirms that price stability — and the expectation of that stability — is a key element in keeping interest rates low and sustaining a strong, expanding, fully employed economy.

Read A Little Inflation Can Be a Dangerous Thing here.


Posted 09-19-2011 10:19 AM by Graham Griffith
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