Unemployment dropped below 9% in Feburary, but it appears we will wait a long time before it gets down to 4%. Mark Thoma has two projections for how long it will take for the US to return to "full employment." Here's the optimisitc forecast, based on employment recovery following recessions since 1948:
Here's the pessimistic projection, based on only the last two recessions:
Thoma's methodology is available here and here.
Posted
03-07-2011 9:06 AM
by
Graham Griffith