The Commerce Department announced yesterday that retail sales had improved 1.2% in October.  Commerce Secretary Gary Locke stated that the increase was higher than anticipated, and it was widely reported as a good sign for holiday shopping.  University of Oregon economist Tim Duy took a look at the data, and shares the following graphs:

And since auto sales were a major driver of the October numbers, here's a look at the data excluding them:

Duy's conclusion:

In general, the retail sales report was good news, as it is another indicator that drives a stake into the heart of the double-dip story.  But keep in mind that the data continues to illustrate the good cop, bad cop conflict in the economy.  Policymakers should be concerned about the distance between new trends and old, lest they risk falling into the trap of diminished expectations, believing that 9% unemployment should be the new normal.  Market participants, however, may simply be content with confirmation that the foundation for ongoing corporate revenue growth remains secure.

Read Duy's Quick Note on Retail Sales at Economist's View, here.