The Federal Open Market Committee announced yesterday that it has begun another round of quantitiative easing. Though they did not use that term. From the announcement:
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that
inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the
Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The
Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal
payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee
intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury
securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about
$75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of
its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase
program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as
needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
There has been a lot of public discussion among economists over whether this monetary policy measure is the right move. Karen Dynan, Vice President and Co-Director, Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, thinks it is, pointing to inflation being below the Fed's target and unemployment being, in a word, "weak":
For more of Dynan's analysis, click here.
Meanwhile, writing in the Financial Times, Martin Feldstein calls the policy a "dangerous gamble":
Mr Bernanke’s argument for QE is based on the “portfolio balance”
theory which stresses that, when the Fed buys bonds, investors increase
their demand for other assets, particularly equities, raising their
price and increasing household wealth and spending. Equity prices have
already risen by 10 per cent since Mr Bernanke discussed this approach.
But how much further will equity prices rise and what will that do to
GDP?
Neither theory nor past experience can answer the first
question. Much of the share price increase induced by QE may already
have occurred based on expectations. An optimistic guess would be
another 10 per cent. Since households have about $7,000bn in equities,
that would imply a wealth gain of $700bn, raising consumer spending by
about one-quarter of one per cent of GDP, a welcome but trivially small
effect on incomes and employment.
The other ways in which QE
would raise GDP are also small. A 20-basis-point reduction in mortgage
rates would have little effect on homebuying at a time when house
prices are again falling. The increase in banks’ liquidity would do
nothing since banks already have massive excess reserves. Big
corporations are sitting on vast amounts of cash. Small businesses that
are not spending because they cannot get credit will not be helped,
because the banks on which they depend have a shortage of capital.
Read Feldstein's op-ed here.
Posted
11-04-2010 9:31 AM
by
Graham Griffith
Filed under: Feldstein, Federal Reserve, Quantitative Easing, interest rates, monetary policy, recession, Bernanke, deflation, recovery, economic policy, bonds, inflation, FOMC, home prices, treasuries, QEII, homebuying, dynan, qe