In his speech opening the Jackson Hole Conference, Ben Bernanke stated that "the Federal Reserve remains committed to playing its part to help the U.S. economy return to sustained, noninflationary growth." And he outlined a series of tools available to him and the Fed in countering further economic decline. (Read the speech here). But Financial Times columnist Clive Crook argues that a "divided Fed" is "letting the country down" and needs to take additional monetary policy steps now:
Mr Bernanke and his colleagues are understandably nervous about
extending the radical measures they have already taken. Divided on the
point, they have taken a modest further step by preventing the maturing
of debt they hold from tightening monetary conditions, as it otherwise
would have. They are right to worry about their exit strategy; they are
also right to be nervous about being in uncharted terrain. But the
balance of risks has moved. They need to go further.
George Magnus of UBS argued on this page last week that deflation poses a greater risk
for the US than inflation. That seems right: inflation expectations, as
revealed by rates on index-linked US debt, are very low. Mr Magnus was
surely correct to say this points to the need for further monetary
easing – but wrong, I think, to say that “unreconstructed monetarists
will not be persuaded”. His point was that monetarists would see the
policy rate at zero and banks holding enormous reserves at the Fed and
conclude that money was already too loose.
As the monetary
economist Scott Sumner has pointed out, Milton Friedman – name me a
less reconstructed monetarist – talked of “the fallacy of identifying
tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest
rates”. When long-term nominal interest rates are very low, and
inflation expectations are therefore also very low, money is tight in
the sense that matters. When money is loose, inflation expectations
rise, and so do long-term interest rates. Unreconstructed monetarists
ought therefore to agree with Mr Magnus’s main point: under current
circumstances, better to print money and be damned.
Read It falls to the Fed to fuel recovery here.
Posted
08-30-2010 8:29 AM
by
Graham Griffith