Jeff Frankel, professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, says the "recession is over:"
True, the magnitude of job loss after December 2007 was
unparalleled since the 1930s. It was severe even relative to the loss
of GDP. But contrary to some impressions, the labor market in this
recovery has not lagged unusually far behind the rest of the economy.
It always lags behind somewhat: due to costs of search, hiring and
training, firms wait until the recovery is reasonably well established
before adding workers to the payroll. But by either of two criteria,
the lag has not been unusually long this time. First, the three months
of greatest
job loss virtually coincided with the three months of greatest
output loss, centered on January or February of 2009, as had also been
the the case in the 1991 and 2001 recessions. (See graphs at Frankel's blog.) By June
2009, job market indicators were showing their first signs of
life. Second, with the latest figures, employment changes have now
turned positive. This is the more definitive criterion, because a
recovery is defined as a period of increasing economic activity, not a
period when economic activity is high. The nine month wait was
painful. But the lag between positive income growth (June 2009) and
positive job growth (March 2010) turned out to be shorter than in the
preceding two recessions (one to two years).
Read Job Market Confirms End of Recession here.
Mark Thoma, professor of economics at the University of Oregon, writes that we should pay attention to Frankel, since he is a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee--which means he is part of the group that defines the dates of recessions. But Thoma is not so sure the latest jobs report is "encouraging" enough. Read Thoma's post here.
Posted
04-05-2010 4:25 PM
by
Graham Griffith
Filed under: jobs, recession, mark thoma, bls, end of recession, unemployment benefits, NBER, Jeff Frankel, business cycle, market indicators, dating recessions