The Economist points us toward an interesting data-set from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).  The CPB tracks global trade volume each quarter, and 2009 was--to the surprise of no one--a bad year overall for trade.  But the CPB findings show that the fourth quarter was relatively strong.  From the CPB report:

Based on preliminary data, world trade volume expanded by an unprecedented 4.8% in December 2009 from the previous month, following an increase of 1,1% in November (unrevised). Import volumes of emerging economies continued to expand at an accelerated pace, growth reaching 7.8% in December. Import growth was particularly high in emerging economies in Asia and Latin America. Import growth in advanced economies accelerated as well, from 0.7% in November (first estimate: 0.3%) to 2.7% in December. In December, trade was 8% below the peak level reached in April 2008, but 15% above the trough reached in May 2009. In 2009 as a whole, trade decreased by an unheard-of 13.2%.

Here's a look at the CPB data over a longer period--this is the trade of "world merchandise" by volume, seasonally adjusted:

Of course, this does not mean the time for popping a bottle of champagne has arrived.  As The Economist points out, trade volume statistics measure bulk and not value:

Figures from the World Bank, which track the value rather than the volume of trade, point to a deceleration in the final quarter, not the acceleration that the CPB’s data suggest. According to the bank, the value of exports from a sample of 56 countries making up the lion’s share of world trade continued to rise in the final quarter, but at a slower rate than in the third quarter.

Data on trade values partly reflect exchange-rate fluctuations, so it is not unusual for them to lead to somewhat different conclusions from volume figures. But there are other reasons to be cautious. December is typically a good month for global commerce because of holiday spending in many parts of the world. Strength in December is therefore by no means sure to have continued into the new year.

Read the CPB report here, and more analysis from The Economist here.