Jobless Recovery in Context

KnowNOW!

Global Economic Watch

Syndication

Recent Posts

Tags

Archives

Enrique Martínez-García and Janet Koech of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas take a look at the labor data of the past two years and compare our current situation with other post-World War II recessions.  And the comparison doesn't do our current situation any favors: 

Looking at the evolution of the unemployment rate in depth and length, the 1973 and 1981 recessions are most similar to the current recession. The 1973 scenario warns us that unemployment could remain elevated for a long time. The 1981 scenario offers a more optimistic outlook, with a rather quick employment recovery and return to prerecession unemployment levels less than three years after the start of the recession.

The jobless recoveries that followed the recessions of 1990 and 2001 suggest a bleak medium-term employment picture. Both recessions were rather mild in the short term, with small increases in the unemployment rate over the first year, but their effects lingered and kept unemployment above prerecession levels long afterward. Unlike the 1973 and 1981 episodes, the 1990 and 2001 experiences became closer to the post-World War II average over time.

Read A Historical Look at the Labor Market During Recessions here.  

 


Posted 01-28-2010 8:03 AM by Graham Griffith
You must login to your account to comment. If you do not have an account, please register to enjoy the full benefits of the site!