Britain Exits Recession

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0.1.  Not a very imposing number.  But the very fact that it is 0.1 and not -0.1 or even 0.0 is the key.  Because in the lat quarter of 2009, Britain experienced 0.1% growth.  And that means the UK has finally joined the US and the other major economies in exiting recession.  Here's a map from the Guardian that marks European nations that have exited recession at this point:

Use an interactive version of the map at The Guardian by clicking here.  

The Guardian's Ashley Seager points out that the figures are disappointing and lower than economic forecasters projected.  And while the announcement brings about a sense of "relief," he is bracing for a slow and difficult recovery:

That is not to say that the first quarter could not bring a nasty surprise and show contraction again, as has often happened at the tail-end of previous recessions. Indeed, we always need two consecutive quarters of contraction to say we are in recession. It might be safer to wait for a positive first quarter figure to declare this one definitely over.

The question is, though, where do we go from here? The answer is, hopefully, upwards. But in truth the recovery could be a slow, protracted affair. The consumer is still weighed down by debt, and unemployment, though seemingly topping out, is still very high. Household finances are also going to get squeezed by a fiscal tightening that will begin some time after the general election.

Remember, too, that the banking system remains extremely fragile and banks largely unwilling to lend. The conditions don't look to be in place for the sort of V-shaped rebound that the economy has seen in the past after recessions.

Read Recession's over but we're now out of the woods yet here.


Posted 01-26-2010 9:44 AM by Graham Griffith
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