The National Association of Realtors is celebrating some good numbers out today:
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1
of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54
million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit
level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since
February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.
Lawrence Yun,
NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. “Many
buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer
tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and
similarly robust sales may be occurring in November,” he said. “With
such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in
December and early next year before another surge in spring and early
summer.”
Read the full release here.
Meanwhile, the Morgage Bankers Association focuses on a different set of housing market statistics from last quarter:
The delinquency rate for
mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a
seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of
the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from the
second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago,
according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National
Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate
increased 108 basis points from 8.86 percent in the second quarter of
2009 to 9.94 percent this quarter.
And MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann says the news is only going to get worse in those regions of the country hardest hit so far, like Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada:
First, it is unlikely the
employment picture will get better until sometime next year and even
then jobs will increase at a very slow pace. Perhaps more importantly,
there is no reason to expect that when the economy begins to add more
jobs, those jobs will be in areas with the biggest excess housing
inventory and the highest delinquency rates. Second, the number of
loans 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure is now a little over 4
million as compared with 3.9 million new and previously occupied homes
currently for sale, although there is likely some overlap between the
two numbers. The ultimate resolution of these seriously delinquent
loans will put added pressure on the hardest hit sections of the
country.
Read the MBA's release here.
Posted
11-23-2009 10:48 AM
by
Graham Griffith