The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development's latest interim assessment of its World Economic Outlook moves the end of the recession up, while maintaining the position that recovery will be long and slow for its member nations:
Given the positive economic news and based on incoming high-frequency indicators, OECD short-term forecasting models point to an earlier recovery than envisaged a few months ago (see table opposite). As a consequence, the unprecedented rate of deterioration in labour market conditions witnessed over the past year should ease. Nonetheless, numerous headwinds imply that the pace of the recovery is likely to be modest for some time to come. Ample spare capacity, low levels of profitability, high and rising unemployment, anaemic growth in labour income and ongoing housing market corrections will moderate any uptick in private demand. At the same time, the need remains for households, businesses, financial institutions and governments to repair the damage to their balance sheets.
Yesterday we pointed to a VoxEU post on the idea that the global economic crisis can viewed as, in essence, a trade crisis. If so, the OECD assessment shows favorable data on exports:

You can read the report here.
Watch OECD head economist Jørgen Elmeskov present the report's findings at a press conference this morning by clicking here. And you can access materials (slides, charts) from Elmeskov's report here.
Posted
09-03-2009 10:58 AM
by
Graham Griffith