Delinquency Rate and Foreclosure Talk

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The delinquency rate on home loans for single family and multifamily houses (not including houses with more than four units) is at an all-time high, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  The MBA's National Delinquency Survey now shows a delinquency rate for the second quarter of 2009 of 8.86%.  The delinquency rate does not include homes that have been foreclosed or are somewhere in the foreclosure process.  Including those homes would push the rate up to 13.16%--"the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey" (which dates back to 1972).

This data might give some weight to what David Karsbøl--chief economist of the online investment bank Saxo Bank--said on CNBC this morning.  Skip past all the market watching talk to  2:45, where Karsbøl says that any stock market rally "doesn't make any sense," because a "tsunami of foreclosures is coming,":

Karsbøl backs his points with largely anecdotal evidence, suggesting that Americans are so angry about the bailouts and neighbors sitting in homes and not paying their mortgages that more and more people will do so.  It is hard not to expect many more foreclosures are coming, given the high rate of people who are behind on their payments.  But do people really make major financial decisions (like whether to skip out on a loan) based upon a neighbor's behavior?  

Meanwhile, CitiGroup is adding to 1400 more employees to help modify delinquent loans as part of the Obama Administration's efforts to stem the tide of foreclosures. 


Posted 08-25-2009 8:11 AM by Graham Griffith
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