Global crises have a way of reshaping nations, and it is likely the US will look very different in the years following this recession.  Some cities will have a much harder time climbing out of the economic hole than others.  Some might not ever recover, or will only do so by reinventing themselves.  Urban studies theorist Richard Florida considers how the crisis will change where we live, how we work, and the US's stature in the global economy in a comprehensive article in the March issue of The Atlantic titled, How the Crash Will Reshape America. 

No place in the United States is likely to escape a long and deep recession. Nonetheless, as the crisis continues to spread outward from New York, through industrial centers like Detroit, and into the Sun Belt, it will undoubtedly settle much more heavily on some places than on others. Some cities and regions will eventually spring back stronger than before. Others may never come back at all. As the crisis deepens, it will permanently and profoundly alter the country’s economic landscape. I believe it marks the end of a chapter in American economic history, and indeed, the end of a whole way of life.

While New York City was at the center of the global economic crisis when it touched off nearly 6 months ago, it looks like it will not bear the brunt of the storm over the long term.  While at the height of the bubble, "greater New York depended on financial sector for roughly 22% of local wages," the city has been attracted top minds from in a diverse array of fields for much of its existence.  Cities that were already in decline before the crisis--Rust Belt cities for example--are in much greater danger because they have not been adding talented minds.  Florida, who wrote The Rise of the Creative Class, has spent a big part of his career looking at how urban centers depend on attracting talented, innovative people, and that those people thrive in environments that are active, stimulating, and fun.  As a result, these places--New York, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, Silicon Valley--have grown and experienced ever increasing rates of innovation and wealth creation--something Florida calls "urban metabolism." 

Metabolism and talent-clustering are important to the fortunes of U.S. city-regions in good times, but they’re even more so when times get tough. It’s not that “fast” cities are immune to the failure of businesses, large or small. (One of the great lessons of the 1873 crisis—and of this one so far—is that when credit freezes up and a long slump follows, companies can fail unpredictably, no matter where they are.) It’s that unlike many other places, they can overcome business failures with relative ease, reabsorbing their talented workers, growing nascent businesses, founding new ones.

Economic crises tend to reinforce and accelerate the underlying, long-term trends within an economy. Our economy is in the midst of a fundamental long-term transformation—similar to that of the late 19th century, when people streamed off farms and into new and rising industrial cities. In this case, the economy is shifting away from manufacturing and toward idea-driven creative industries—and that, too, favors America’s talent-rich, fast-metabolizing places.

As "creative" capitals become more vital and recover from the crisis, other places that will likely suffer longer include a lot of old factory cities that have not evolved and possibly Sunbelt cities where rapid growth was centered on rising housing prices rather than new economic sectors.  The full article is a must read, as is an additional Q&A with Florida that focuses largely on the stimulus package and what sort of infrastructure will help foster growth in the new America. 

Also, The Atlantic has pust together an interactive feature that is highly useful.  For example, the map above shows the relative growth and decline of patents per capita in urban centers.  You can use the mapping tool here. 

UPDATE: Richard Florida was a guest on WBUR's On Point with Tom Ashbrook yesterday.  Listen here.