The Wall Street Journal's February Forecasting Survey is now available, and the economists surveyed have adjusted their projections. While most continue to expect growth to come in the third quarter of this year, they think economic recovery is farther off.
As recently as September, economists on average thought the U.S. would see annualized GDP growth of 1.2% in the first three months of this year; now, they see a 4.6% decline. Forecasts for the April-through-June period have seen a similar shift, from a 1.9% growth forecast to now a 1.5% decline, based on the 52 economists who participated in the Journal's February survey. The average forecast is for growth in the third quarter at 0.7%, less than half the rate expected last fall. The fourth-quarter picture has also darkened, but just slightly, to growth of 1.9% from 2.1% seen in November. Only five economists see growth declining through the fourth quarter of 2009; but they insist the consensus outlook right now, which says the recession will end in August as GDP returns to growth, is far too optimistic.

from WSJ.com
The monthly forecast is a helpful online resource. You can access a whole set of interactive charts, from the GDP forecasts to unemployment projections, here. And watch Journal reporters discuss the findings here.
Posted
02-13-2009 8:44 AM
by
Graham Griffith